MOSCOW, May 13. /TASS/. Iran and the US could go back to fighting soon as diplomacy stalls; Russia flexes its military might as it tests new nuclear missile technology; and prognosing the fallout from the latest corruption scandal in Ukraine. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Iran, US creeping toward renewing hostilities
Iran and the US are edging closer to renewed war. Tehran has threatened to increase uranium enrichment to 90%, which is sufficient for producing nuclear weapons, while US President Donald Trump, who has already rejected Iran’s peace plan twice, regularly states that Tehran must not be allowed to obtain a nuclear bomb. Although experts argue that negotiations and a settlement are still possible, Iran is expected to stay firm in its demands, even if a new round of conflict begins.
There are currently no signs that Iran is ready to devote significant resources to its nuclear program, Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. Moreover, the emergence of such weapons in Iran would trigger a regional arms race and a new wave of militarization in the Persian Gulf states, which is something Tehran does not want, the expert emphasized. "Iran views a hypothetical nuclear arsenal as a deterrent and would only use it as a last resort if it faced an existential threat. This approach takes into account the positions of both the religious community and the security forces," the expert noted.
According to American studies expert Malek Dudakov, the coming days should not see any escalation, given that Trump has a planned visit to China, where the US leader will try to persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to influence Iran. "When Trump returns from China and it becomes clear that Beijing won’t help him in any way, then an escalation scenario is possible. This scenario, however, will have extremely negative consequences for the US," the expert pointed out. According to him, the US is running low on missiles and, in particular, ammunition for air defense systems. Thus, Washington will have to launch a new round of conflict while facing a shortage of weapons. Moreover, confrontation with Iran is extremely unpopular among the American public. More than 70% of Americans support an end to hostilities and an unconditional ceasefire. Resuming strikes would destroy Trump’s approval rating and impact the Republican Party’s prospects in the November midterm congressional elections. "The war with Iran is hitting the US economy hard, with fuel prices having doubled. Trump has found himself in a dead-end situation," Dudakov stressed.
Russian Financial University professor Sergey Tolkachev believes there is a chance for a peaceful agreement. According to him, the key role is played not so much by Trump, but by the forces behind him: a segment of the US elite with a plan to reindustrialize America. "For this, they need cheap oil domestically, and expensive oil in the rest of the world, especially in Europe and China. If they manage to reach an agreement with Iran on these issues through private negotiations, then a peaceful deal is possible," Tolkachev noted.
Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Oriental Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, also believes that the US and Iran are committed to diplomacy. In his opinion, Trump needs a deal to declare victory. As for Iran, it cannot wage war indefinitely, so negotiations are inevitable, the expert emphasized.
Izvestia: Russia flexes missile power with Sarmat launch
On May 12, Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces successfully test-fired the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile system. President Vladimir Putin congratulated the military, stating that the missile is four times as powerful as its Western counterparts. The first regiment equipped with Sarmat systems is scheduled to begin combat duty by the end of the year. Experts note that the launch marked a major milestone in testing the new weapons system as it was also intended to remind unfriendly nations of Russia's missile power.
Other countries need to know what kind of strategic weapons Russia has, Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. "It’s a very good thing that Russia has such weapons. It is very good that we are announcing this publicly - in this case, in the form of a report to the supreme commander-in-chief from the Defense Ministry. And this absolutely must be heard outside Russia, especially in those countries that wish for Russia’s strategic defeat. By definition, it is impossible to inflict a strategic defeat on a country that possesses nuclear weapons," he said.
Dmitry Kornev, editor of the Militaryrussia news outlet, noted that the Sarmat is the most powerful ballistic missile in existence. Its first launch took place on April 20, 2022, and a second successful launch has now been conducted. "The project has faced some hurdles, as missiles of this class have never been built in modern Russia. As it is, this is the first super-heavy missile to be developed in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union," the expert emphasized.
This launch signals to potential adversaries that Russia possesses the most advanced models of strategic missiles, with huge range and the maneuverability to bypass missile defense systems, military expert Vadim Kozulin noted. "This means that a retaliatory strike will reach any aggressor nation. Right now, Western countries hostile to us are working to find where we’re weak and, generally speaking, looking for any way to downplay our capabilities. However, the new missile suggests otherwise - our nuclear shield is strong enough to protect the country. It is important that Russia, and Putin personally, are devoting significant attention to modernizing missile technology and the nuclear triad. It is actively being developed," he explained.
This showcase of missile strength is linked to the West’s tepid reaction to Russia's proposal to resume negotiations, Yevgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the Russian University of People's Friendship, said. According to him, Moscow has signaled its readiness for direct contact with Europe, but Western countries have met this initiative with skepticism. Against this backdrop, the expert pointed out that Russia is demonstrating that its national interests and sovereignty remain key elements of its foreign policy. Moscow is also reminding its European neighbors that, despite Paris’ attempts to strengthen its own role and shift the financing of its nuclear arsenal to the entire EU, Russia’s nuclear capabilities remain far more formidable and dangerous, Semibratov concluded.
Media: Will latest corruption scandal move needle on EU military aid to Ukraine?
The corruption scandal around Andrey Yermak, former head of the Ukrainian presidential office, could jeopardize military aid to Kiev. Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies - the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) - suspect him of laundering 460 million hryvnias ($10.5 million) via a luxury housing construction project near Kiev. While the scandal has received widespread coverage in the Western press, experts believe that most EU countries will overlook the extent of the corruption and continue to fund Kiev.
The Yermak corruption case won’t help Vladimir Zelensky, with whom Yermak worked for about seven years, as it could damage him politically in the eyes of the Europeans, his main military donors. Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia that these developments could impact the EU's allocation of military aid. "The key question is how far they [Europe] will go to contain the fallout from this scandal. There is a confrontation here between the agencies behind NABU and their European counterparts who have closely supported Zelensky. They will try to soften the blow as much as possible, not only for Zelensky, but for themselves as well," he pointed out.
The new NABU investigation follows off the tail of last year’s anti-corruption saga, which led to a restructuring of Ukraine’s political system, Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine section at the Institute of CIS Countries, told Vedomosti. The expert noted that at the time, Zelensky effectively sidelined Yermak, who, while in the background, still allegedly retained significant control over the country’s political process. He added that US President Donald Trump can now use the NABU case to pressure Kiev to restart peace talks with Russia based on the terms agreed upon in August 2025 in Anchorage. "Against the backdrop of US foreign policy setbacks in the Middle East, the US president is trying to demonstrate successes on the Ukrainian front to his electorate," the expert emphasized.
However, it is unlikely that Ukraine and the European countries supporting it will accept the American rules of the game. A cessation of hostilities does not serve the interests of many European states, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the Humanitarian and Political Studies International Institute, noted. "Yes, Zelensky is currently in a vulnerable position. Theoretically, Brussels is capable of reducing the flow of financial aid to Kiev, but only to a point where it does not lead to the collapse of the front," the expert noted.
EU aid will continue despite the corruption scandals, political analyst Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, emphasized. "They like having Zelensky as president because he allows them to fight a proxy conflict with Russia. This scandal could damage Zelensky’s image, reinforcing the view among European politicians that he should be replaced. However, as long as European elites remain firmly opposed to Russia, they will not cut back on anything," the expert said.
Vedomosti: Trump floats possible Vance-Rubio ticket in 2028 presidential election
US President Donald Trump has suggested that the duo of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio could run on the same Republican ticket in the 2028 presidential election. Since his return to office in January 2025, speculation about Trump’s potential successor has been rampant. Mainstream American media and political pundits alike see Vance as the most likely candidate, being that his ideological views align closely with Trump and the MAGA movement. Polls show that he is very popular with the Republican base, boding well for a potential presidential run. However, since spring 2025, Rubio’s political star has been on the rise, owing in large part to his ability to serve a dual role as Secretary of State and acting presidential national security advisor.
Interestingly, both Vance and Rubio have remained quiet on their vision for the future of the Republican Party, and neither has taken any jabs at the other publicly. There has never been a case in US history where a presidential candidate and his vice presidential running mate have held different positions within the same administration.
Although a partnership between the two makes sense, Rubio’s ambitions may outweigh the political expediency of such an alliance for the party, Vadim Kozlov, head of the Domestic Politics Research Department at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. The expert explained that Rubio’s position hinges on the outcome of Trump’s foreign policy initiatives with Iran and possibly Cuba. However, the expert doubts that Rubio and Vance want to work together. "Although they call each other friends in public, they actually have very different views. Rubio is a moderate candidate, while Vance is an even more fervent Trumpist than Trump himself," the expert said. As for Trump’s ability to influence the selection of the future Republican presidential nominee, he will have significant influence, but he will not be able to impose his will on the party single-handedly.
Trump may view the Vance-Rubio combination as a way to secure his political legacy, Alexandra Voitolovskaya, a senior researcher at the Center for North American Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, noted. According to the expert, the president is testing the waters ahead of the primaries and trying to motivate his inner circle with such statements. "He is provoking rivalry in the Republican party, including Vance and Rubio, so that they will try to distinguish themselves and, perhaps, more actively implement his agenda," the expert emphasized.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Cargo traffic along Northern Sea Route up by nearly 12%
In the first four months of this year, cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route increased by 11.6% compared to the same period last year. Last year, from January through the end of April, 10.4 million tons of cargo were transported via the route, compared to 11.6 million tons this year, according to figures published by the Russian Federal Service for State Statistics.
The current trend is largely linked to the continuing high demand for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the gradual reorientation of global logistics chains, Arctic Development Project Office Director General Maxim Dankin told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "One factor has been the tension in the Middle East. Any instability in the Strait of Hormuz region - through which a significant portion of the world’s LNG supplies pass - automatically increases buyers’ interest in alternative supply routes," the expert pointed out.
Russia has two LNG projects in the Arctic: Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2. The facilities are close to each other and can only ship their products via the Northern Sea Route. However, Yamal LNG’s capacity of approximately 19 million tons per year has been fully utilized for several consecutive years, so increasing shipments from this plant is not possible. Meanwhile, Arctic LNG-2, with a capacity of 13.2 million tons per year, has been subject to US sanctions since November 2023. Last year, no shipments were recorded from this LNG facility from January through the end of April. However, according to Kpler, approximately one million tons of LNG were shipped this year. Arctic LNG-2 alone accounted for the entire increase in cargo traffic via the Northern Sea Route. Moreover, if there is any further increase in shipments this year, it will be solely due to this facility. Last year, 1.17 million tons were shipped from Arctic LNG-2. All of these shipments were made to China. Against the backdrop of rising gas prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, deliveries via the western route of the Northern Sea Route - bypassing Europe - have become possible. China remains the main buyer of gas. Starting in July, when navigation along the eastern route of the Northern Sea Route begins, shipments may increase.
According to Deputy Prime Minister Yury Trutnev, virtually no cargo originating from the mainland is currently being transported via the Northern Sea Route. Therefore, in order to transport cargo via the Northern Sea Route, it is necessary to build railways, dredge the seabed, address economic issues, and determine what cargo can be transported and the benefits this transportation would provide to the country's economy.
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