MOSCOW, September 24. /TASS/. The EU seeks to hinder dialogue between Russia and the US, the recognition of Palestine strains ties between Israel and Europe, and Trump’s tariffs do not hamper the global economy. These stories topped Wednesday's headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: How Europe seeks to disrupt Russia-US dialogue
The European "war party" is using the incident with Russian planes over the Baltic Sea to undermine the settlement in Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. And according to Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s ambassador-at-large, the incidents in Poland and the Baltic states have all the hallmarks of a provocation. Meanwhile, on September 23, NATO consultations, organized on the request of Estonia, concluded. Mark Rutte, the alliance’s secretary general, said that the bloc would resolutely respond to airspace violations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has vowed to shoot down Russian planes if they cross the border. The Russian Embassy in Warsaw told Izvestia that Polish authorities have been engaged in the militarization of the region for a long time, and the statements of the leaders of that country are another confirmation of Warsaw's policy course toward deliberate escalation.
The hysteria and information background shaped in recent years allow European politicians to groundlessly accuse Russia, as the societies of these countries are ready for this, political analyst Denis Denisov said in a conversation with Izvestia. The purported threat from Moscow provides the opportunity for the leaders of NATO countries to keep up sanctions and toughen their policies.That said, European "hawks" and those affiliated with the military-industrial complex of a number of NATO countries are interested in all such provocations. For them, such situations provide an excuse for new major contracts and confirm their rhetoric about the threat emanating from Russia, the expert concluded.
"Theoretically, all this could be a pre-planned performance in order to discredit Russia and create a negative background ahead of the UN General Assembly, where, in particular, talks between Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio are scheduled. But provocations are needed, including to get a load of money from the militarization of NATO's eastern flank. And, of course, in order to somehow put pressure on Trump and force him to defend Europe from an imaginary threat from Russia," Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the Department of Mass Communications and Media Business of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, the United States has been very reserved about the unfolding events, political scientist Kamran Gasanov told Izvestia. According to him, Trump does not absolve Russia of the responsibility for what has happened, but at the same time, he is not making any tough statements against Moscow. The US president vowed to provide assistance to Poland and the Baltic states in the event of an escalation in relations with Russia. Nevertheless, there has been no harsh rhetoric from the White House until a certain point.
However, at the UN General Assembly, Trump made a number of harsh statements. In particular, he said that European countries can shoot down Russian military aircraft if they enter the NATO border. However, when asked if the United States would support the allies if the Europeans decided to take such a step, Trump said it all depends on the circumstances.
Izvestia: Recognition of Palestine worsens Israel’s ties with EU
Israel will face economic consequences if EU countries restrict trade relations with it. A third of Israeli exports is linked to EU markets, and the possible lifting of zero tariffs on goods from that country will impact the deliveries to the tune of 5.8 billion euros per year. The European Commission has already stated that it is weighing such a scenario. A complete breakup with the EU is disadvantageous for Israel, and this will shape its actions, experts believe. In particular, it is unlikely to step up the pace and scale of the military operation in Gaza City. Meanwhile, the United States and France are already preparing plans for the post-war reconstruction of the enclave. Washington is discussing with Arab countries the principles of peace and post-war governance in the Gaza Strip, as they must guarantee the withdrawal of IDF units from Palestinian territories, as well as the complete disarmament of Hamas and its removal from influencing the situation in Gaza.
Israel's financial dependence on the EU is also due to the fact that a quarter of the country's reserves is located in Europe. A number of European experts believe that in order to increase pressure on the Jewish state, Brussels could freeze the assets, as it did in Russia’s case.
"As more major EU countries recognize Palestine, the arguments that Palestine does not have the right to a certain status weaken. This may reinforce the legal and moral criticism of Israel. Economic cooperation will weaken: there will be restrictions on cooperation, a reduction in the level of contacts, and the termination of joint programs, especially in the field of security and intelligence. Investments in Israel may also decrease," Farkhad Ibragimov, a political scientist and expert on the Middle East, told Izvestia.
On its part, Israel is likely to take several symbolic steps, Eastern studies expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. They may include the lowering of the level of diplomatic relations with countries that have recognized the independence of Palestine. A demonstrative expansion into the Jordan Valley, where the fewest representatives of the Palestinian community live, is also possible.
"That said, Israel is unlikely to make a complete break with the Europeans, as the EU is Israel’s important trade and political partner. Most likely, Israel will not accelerate the operation in Gaza, as it still has the initiative in the Strip. It is much more likely that the scale of operations in the West Bank will intensify, which together should become an argument against Palestine’s unwillingness to ensure security in the territories entrusted to it," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Trump’s tariffs to impact world in 2026
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has updated its forecast on the global economy growth. The document’s September version reflects better assessments versus June despite statements on the negative impact of US tariffs on global trade. The OECD anticipates global GDP to grow by 3.2% by yearend which is 0.3 percentage points more than projected three months earlier.
Overall, countries have adjusted to the changed tariff regime but the situation does not look optimistic in terms of the upcoming growth, experts polled by Vedomosti, said.
"India, China, Canada, Brazil have demonstrated a high level of resilience to external shocks," Valery Vaisberg, director of analytics at the Region investment company, says. He noted that this is explained both by the reliance on growing domestic demand and the relatively successful rebalancing of export channels.
"In the US, the retained growth is related to investments in new technologies, while in some countries, such as China, to the higher level of state support. But this is a temporary acceleration of growth, the process of adjusting to new circumstances," Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, noted.
Anna Fedyunina, deputy director of the Institute for Structural Policy Research at HSE University, concurs. According to her, the forecast rather reflects a short-term effect of reviving trade instead of being a stable long-term tendency and does not give any grounds for confident optimism in the medium-term perspective.
The main cause of the improved forecast is the global economy’s current reaction to the tariffs, believes economist Yegor Susin. "Unfortunately, this hardly means that the long-term growth rates of the global economy will be higher," he noted.
Vedomosti: Germany to conclude rearmament contracts worth 83 bln euros
In its rearmament program, Germany will turn to the European military-industrial complex and only 8% of weapons will be bought from the US despite President Donald Trump’s wishes, Politico wrote after examining Berlin’s military procurement plans. According to the media outlet, the German Defense Ministry is preparing to conclude contracts on purchasing and developing arms to the value of about 83 billion euros by the end of 2026.
Indeed, Germany, together with a number of other EU countries, has adopted a course toward reducing the share of US arms and boosting that of the European ones, including German weapons, noted Director of the Center for Military and Economic Studies at the Higher School of Economics’ Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy Prokhor Tebin. According to him, for Berlin, this is one of the important elements of revitalizing its own industry and the economy in general. That said, over recent years, Germany has acquired a significant amount of US arms so the decrease is quite natural, especially since the need to intensify a number of domestic programs is also pressing, the expert pointed out.
The German leadership’s ambitious plans on the Bundeswehr’s comprehensive rearmament are part of Berlin’s policy on stimulating production and exiting the crisis, concurs Artyom Sokolov, a senior researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. By making new defense purchases, Germany plans to turn the military-industrial complex into the driving force of economic development and create new jobs. This is being done in order to let Trump know that without relaunching its military-industrial complex, Germany will not be able to be the US’ effective ally, the expert noted.
In order to draw any final conclusions about Germany reducing US arms purchases, it is necessary to analyze purchasing data over several years, noted Maria Khorolskaya, research fellow at the Department for European Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). This is related to the peculiarities of defense orders - long-term planning, lengthy deliveries and the products’ long durability. Therefore, there is no reason to assert that Germany will buy less arms and military hardware from the US. On the contrary, Germany’s dependence on supplies from the US is higher compared to some other countries, such as France, the expert noted.
Kommersant: Silver quotations reach 14-year-old highs
Silver quotations at the global spot market have exceeded a level of $44 per Troy ounce for the first time in 14 years. Since the beginning of the year, it has grown 1.5 times more valuable, getting ahead of gold. The increase was facilitated by the US Federal Reserve System’s decision to lower the rate as well as by expectations of the Fed’s further eased monetary policy.
Given silver’s structural deficit, analysts forecast it reaching a historic high of $49.8 per ounce by yearend.
"The softening of the Fed’s monetary policy, albeit restrained, fundamentally added reasons to reassess future demand on silver," Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, stock market expert at BCS World of Investment, noted.
"The correlation of the price of gold to the price of silver even given the latest growth is at a rather high level compared to its historical value," Finam analyst Alexander Potavin pointed out.
Under the conditions of structural deficit and speculative activity amid the Fed switching to a new stage of lowering the rate, the further growth of the silver price is inevitable, analysts believe. According to them, growth rates will be ahead of the growth rates of the gold price.
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