NEW YORK, July 11. /TASS/. The United States and Israel would have to carry out a full-scale, expensive ground operation in Iran if they want to completely destroy the country's nuclear program by military means, but the diplomatic path is still the best way to go, according retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO.
"Over the long haul, we can always go back to the Pentagon and pull out the war plans to invade Iran – and the Tehran leadership knows it," Stavridis stated in his opinion column for Bloomberg news agency.
"But we shouldn’t kid ourselves about what can be accomplished strictly with low-cost and low-risk airstrikes," he continued. "To truly obliterate the Iranian nuclear plan would be shockingly costly and painful. Far better to try again diplomatically. The ghosts of Iraq demand no less."
Stavridis pointed out that US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the strikes on Iran's nuclear program in June had "obliterated" the Iranian nuclear program was widely challenged "and current assessments have broadly settled on 'severe damage' that has set back the program 12 to 24 months."
"What is largely not disputed is that 800-plus pounds of enriched uranium remains somewhere in Iran; that some number of the critical enrichment machines (gas centrifuges, cascade structures, precision bearings) are likely still in Iranian hands; and, indisputably, that the scientific knowhow to produce an atomic bomb still exists in the minds of Iranian scientists, engineers and technologists who survived the strikes," NATO’s ex-supreme allied commander noted.
US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agree that Iran can not be allowed to build a nuclear weapon, but their positions on how to achieve this goal differ with Israel pushing to continue with targeted strikes, while Trump pursues a diplomatic solution, according to Stavridis.
In his opinion, the assumed approaches of Israeli PM Netanyahu and US President Trump cannot guarantee that Iran will never develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons.
"One way to think about this is to look at the 2003 invasion of Iraq," Stavridis continued. "Yes, we all know it turned out that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein didn’t have a nuclear weapons program."
"But, paradoxically, the mission intended to find it must be considered a military success in terms of achieving its objective. That effort provides a blueprint for what it would take to truly obliterate a nation’s weapons research programs," the ex-NATO official said.
Israeli-Iranian issue should be resolved at negotiating table
Stavridis stressed that it was a major ground invasion in Iraq that allowed the US military and its allies to inspect every government laboratory, identify and interrogate all scientists, organize surveillance of them, and destroy equipment and factories.
"Every government lab was inspected and neutralized; key scientific personnel were identified, interrogated and placed under surveillance. Machinery was destroyed and factories converted to other uses. But this required, above all, boots on the ground. It simply could not have been done in Iraq with a handful of airstrikes and clusters of Tomahawk missiles," the high-ranking military official said.
"Now let’s look at Iran. It is nearly four times the size of Iraq, with a population roughly twice as large. Unlike the case in Baghdad, we know with absolute certainty – because of international inspectors – that Iran has an active and impressive program to build not only nuclear weapons but also ballistic missiles to deliver them," Stavridis opined.
"Thus, the challenge to obliterate that capability is immense, far greater than in Iraq. It would require invading Iran with hundreds of thousands of ground troops, occupying the country and systematically dismantling the state," he stated.
The retired US Navy Admiral Stavridis opted for the resolution of the problem "at the bargaining table" adding that it is also necessary to "tell the Israelis to cool their jets, literally."
"Any potential deal needs to include a guarantee of open inspections by international bodies anywhere, anytime; no uranium enrichment within Iran (if the regime truly wants low-enriched material for an energy program, it can come from a neutral third site); termination of long-range ballistic missile research and testing; and no further support to terrorist or proxy groups threatening the US, Arab states or Israel," he said.
"In return, we can offer a graduated series of steps to relieve sanctions; cooperation on peaceful nuclear power; and economic incentives – for the Europeans, a peaceful Iran could be a very attractive investment opportunity," Stavridis added.
Situation in Iran
In the early morning hours of June 13, Israel launched a military operation against Iran. Less than 24 hours later, Iran retaliated. Nine days later, in the small hours of June 22, US jets attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, entering the conflict.
The following evening, Tehran launched a missile strike on Al Udeid, the largest US military airbase in the region, located in Qatar. According to the US authorities, there were no casualties or significant damage.
US President Donald Trump later announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a complete ceasefire that took effect on June 24.