Izvestia: What’s going on with negotiations between Kiev and Moscow
Almost 5 mln people have left Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s special operation, Director General of the International Organization for Migration Antonio Vitorino told the UN Security Council on April 19. The main subject of the meeting was the humanitarian situation. A truce that the UN chief called for was also mentioned. Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s envoy at this meeting, made it clear that Russia was not going to agree to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, peace talks between the two countries are practically frozen. This means that any settlement depends exclusively on military actions, according to experts.
"Unfortunately, the situation has gotten to the point where everything is decided exclusively by the logic of military actions," Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club and Russia in Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov told Izvestia. "And, of course, nobody will stop anything when there are fierce battles raging and Russia is changing its tactics gearing up for a major offensive. "Under such conditions nobody declares any humanitarian pauses," he added.
As for the talks, they practically stopped after Istanbul, both sides proceed from the fact that there is no solution besides a military one, Ukraine’s Western partners came to the same conclusion and declare it openly, so no humanitarian or diplomatic initiatives are possible at this point, the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Europeans set sights on total rejection of Russian gas
As early as May, some European countries will reject Russian gas. Their government promises to introduce subsidized energy prices and is ready to isolate their energy networks from other EU countries. Greece is preparing measures on containing energy prices and is readying for a worst-case scenario where gas deliveries from Russia would be suspended. Denmark will also boost its own fuel production in order not to buy from Russia. According to Gazprom, the physical pumping of gas in the EU in April is also decreasing. That said, in March alone, Russia probably made about 12 bln euro on gas export.
Experts doubt the EU’s ability to cast aside Russian gas in the near future. "The EU has been attempting to reject Russian gas for more than ten years. Yet the truth is that the EU, as a consumer of resources, can only run from one gas supplier to another and find out that gas involves long-term planning and the suppliers cannot redirect supplies at the EU’s whim. Long-term contracts are needed. The alternative to Russian gas is not gas from other countries but coal and nuclear energy. The EU is capable of providing those generating capacities independently," Executive Director of Univer Capital Artem Tuzov noted.
It is impossible for the EU to quickly abandon gas supplies from Russia in general, according to chief analyst at TeleTrade Mark Goikhman. "It is also not possible to completely replace it with alternative sources over one-two years. The necessary infrastructure (pipelines, LNG terminals and so on) is lacking, and sufficient available capacities from potential suppliers are also absent," he noted.
Irina Kezik, an expert from the cross-sectoral information and analytical center of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, also doubts that the supplies of Russian gas to Europe will decrease in the near future. "I don’t think that in May, we will see serious drops in the volumes of gas supplies to Europe. First of all, the hysteria with the risks of cutting gas has passed and today we are observing gas prices that are much lower not only than this year’s figures but also last year’s, 2021, so Europe will try to fill its underground storage facilities by winter. Secondly, genuine economists have already warned politicians several times that a recession and hunger await countries of the Old World if they reject Russian gas," she said.
Izvestia: Putin, Pashinyan discuss Nagorno-Karabakh situation
Many problems still hover over Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on April 18. During the talks, the Armenian leader gave high marks to the role of Russian peacekeepers and aimed at focusing on the opportunities of bolstering their effectiveness in the region. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the situation in the region is still complicated which sometimes leads to armed clashes. Nevertheless, the fact that Yerevan and Baku are negotiating offers hope that this long-standing conflict may still be settled.
"Although there are the 2020 agreements and Russian peacekeepers are deployed in the region, from time to time there are troop movements, shootouts, and people lose their lives, Azerbaijani troops occupy certain positions. It is difficult to say that the situation is completely stable. Moreover, in recent months it has worsened," Director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan told the newspaper.
Nevertheless, it is precisely the Russian peacekeepers who remain the guarantors of peace in Nagorno-Karabakh, Viktor Krivopuskov, professor at the State University of Management and President of the Russian Society of Friendship and Cooperation with Armenia noted. And nowadays this fact enables work on developing a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan as well as on the demarcation of borders, the organization of transport corridors and other matters, he added.
According to Azerbaijani political analyst and an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club Farkhad Mammadov, currently there are four key issues on the agenda: the peace treaty, unblocking lines of communication, creating a commission on defining borders and "the withdrawal of the rest of Armenian troops from the zone of the temporary stationing of the Russian peacekeeping contingent." That said, he is confident that in order to normalize relations it is necessary to conclude a peace treaty and establish diplomatic ties first. He concluded that the implementation of infrastructure projects and the issue of the border demarcation may begin following this. Iskandaryan, however, cautioned that such a complicated and long-standing conflict cannot be resolved in several months since this is not just about Nagorno-Karabakh, but about the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in general.
Vedomosti: Russia faces uphill battle in legal struggle to regain foreign reserves
The Bank of Russia intends to get back the country’s foreign reserves and will sue with those who froze them, Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina said on April 19. "Since this is unprecedented on a global scale for the foreign currency reserves of such a big country to be frozen," she said.
Lawsuits, most likely, will be filed at the location of the body that made the decision to block the reserves, and separately in the EU, the US and so on, according to attorney Igor Dubov, who is a partner with Iontsev, Lyakhovsky and Partners. He also does not rule out that the lawsuits may be filed in Russia but the decisions of Russian courts won’t be executed abroad.
Long-standing experience shows that if the money was frozen in the US, it is necessary to use the judicial system of that country, according to Sergey Glandin of Pen & Paper law firm. However, nobody has been successful yet: Libya has not gotten anything while North Korea hasn’t even tried.
The prospects of a positive outcome in this situation are extremely murky, first of all, due to political issues, according to Alexander Pavlovsky, a partner with a.t.Legal law firm. According to him, a court fully financed and dependent on the state is hardly likely to make a decision that would contradict official state policy.
Russia may cite the historical principle of non-interference in a state’s domestic affairs as one of the basic principles of modern international law, including the inadmissibility of using economic measures to pressure a country, according to lawyer Igor Noskov of the Bashilov, Noskov and Partners.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moldova getting pulled into Russian-Ukrainian conflict
On Wednesday, Moldova should begin paying a $709 mln debt for the Russian gas that it used. However, Chisinau won’t pay anything and Gazprom may turn off gas supplies to the Eastern European country. The leader of the Social Democratic Party of Moldova, Viktor Shelin, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the issue is not just gas but geopolitics. He noted that the Moldovan government is egging Russia on into breaking the gas agreement. In this case, Moldova will conclude an agreement with Romania, leaving Transnistria without gas which will force it to support Russia in the conflict with Ukraine. According to the politician, Moldova will be drawn into this conflict as well.
Meanwhile, Moody’s experts are skeptical about Moldova’s ability to reject gas imports from Russia and locate alternative sources.
However, Romanian expert Sorin Ionita said that his country also has problems in the sphere of energy while Moldova, being a small country, is subject to a number of risks. Due to this, according to the commentator, Chisinau shouldn’t make any abrupt or sudden moves. He noted that there are some alternatives and they should be implemented energetically so that in winter the situation won’t be like last year.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews.