MOSCOW, July 18. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Iran on Tuesday for a summit of the guarantors of the Astana Process on Syria (Russia, Iran, Turkey). He will hold bilateral talks with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts, Ebrahim Raisi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as well as with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the sidelines of the event.
The previous summit of the Astana trio, the sixth one, took place online on July 1, 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic. The parties agreed to hold an in-person meeting in the Iranian capital once the situation allowed. Two years later, the time has come to discuss pressing issues.
Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov said that the leaders planned to adopt a joint statement following the Astana-format meeting in Tehran, the draft of which "has been prepared and almost agreed on."
Exchanging views on hotspot issues
Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said ahead of Putin’s trip to Tehran that the upcoming meeting of the Astana trio would provide a good opportunity to discuss global and international problems.
According to Peskov, apart from a wide range of Syria-related issues, the leaders intend to exchange views on hotspot foreign policy issues at bilateral meetings. Putin will probably brief Raisi and Erdogan on Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine and discuss the related global changes with them.
Reliable partnership with Iran
Russian Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov pointed out that Moscow viewed Iran "as a reliable partner and a like-minded nation amid global changes." He added that the agenda of Putin’s bilateral meetings with Raisi and Khamenei reflected "the entire multifaceted range of bilateral cooperation."
In addition, Bogdanov mentioned ongoing work on a new cooperation agreement between Moscow and Tehran, which would create "a strong cooperation framework for the next 20 to 25 years." Peskov said in an interview with Iran’s state broadcaster that the Kremlin expected the document to be signed in the near future, after the parties agreed on some changes.
Iranian Ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali stated ahead of Putin’s visit to Tehran that relations between the two countries were entering a very important phase. The envoy added that he was very satisfied with development trends in bilateral relations.
Besides, Putin and the Iranian authorities will also touch upon issues related to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov announced.
Talks with Erdogan
Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Iran will kick off on Monday. While in Tehran, he will participate in the Astana-format summit, a meeting of the Turkish-Iranian High-Level Cooperation Council and will also hold a bilateral meeting with Putin. According to Erdogan’s office, the parties will discuss the situation in Syria, the fight against terrorist organizations that threaten regional security, including the Islamic State group (outlawed in Russia), the political settlement process, the humanitarian situation in Syria and issues related to the return of Syrian refugees to their home country.
Ushakov noted that the leaders of Russia and Turkey would definitely touch upon Ukrainian grain exports. The United Nations, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine held the first round of four-party consultations on unblocking Ukrainian ports to ensure the export of agricultural products in Istanbul on July 13. "We are ready to ensure the export of agricultural goods. We are ready to continue working on this track," the Kremlin aide emphasized.
Ukrainian issue
Given the parties’ determination to thoroughly discuss global issues, it is safe to say that the situation around Ukraine will be one of the focuses of the Tehran talks. Turkey has repeatedly put forward mediation initiatives in order to arrange talks between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine. It is in Istanbul that the last in-person round of negotiations took place on March 29. Moscow later said on numerous occasions that the talks had been suspended at Kiev’s initiative.
Iran has also offered assistance in resolving the situation around Ukraine. Raisi said in a conversation with Putin on June 8 that he was ready to use his capacity to help find a diplomatic solution to the military conflict in Ukraine. In particular, Tehran suggested hosting Russia-Ukraine talks. Russian Ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan said in an interview with the Rossiya-24 TV channel that Moscow viewed Iran’s position on developments in Ukraine and Russia’s special military operation as "balanced and well-considered."
However, Ushakov stressed ahead of Putin’s visit to Iran that "so far, neither Kiev nor Western countries have shown interest in talks."
Persuasion attempt
The Astana-format summit will take place in Tehran amid a difficult situation around Syria, which is why it is very relevant, Senior Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sazhin pointed out. While talking to TASS, he pointed out that the balance of military presence in Syria might have changed slightly in the past months.
"Besides, Turkey intends to expand what it calls a safe zone in the Kurdish areas of Syria," Sazhin said. "Iran is actively working to provide weapons and equipment to Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement, which is actually sponsored by Tehran. In addition, Iran seeks to step up activities on the Syria-Israel border, which is what Israel cannot put up with. That said, the situation is rather complicated and requires decisions to be made at the highest level. I think that a decision on Syria will be announced there," the expert stressed.
He also said that Turkey’s plans to carry out a special operation in Syria "appeals to neither Moscow nor Tehran." "I believe that both Putin and Raisi will try to persuade Erdogan to refrain from taking such radical steps at least in the near future," the analyst noted.
Geopolitical message to West
Russian International Affairs Council Director General Andrey Kortunov, in turn, believes that Putin’s visit to Tehran reflects changes in Russia’s foreign policy priorities. According to him, Tehran’s importance as Moscow’s partner is growing on the economic, military, political and regional tracks. In this regard, the Russian president’s trip to Iran is a symbolic one as it is meant to send a message, Kortunov emphasized.
"Non-Western countries seek to expand multilateral cooperation platforms," the expert noted. "Not so long ago, Iran started the process of joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Discussions are underway on the future of BRICS. There are a number of other multilateral platforms, which are important for Russia and involve Iran. It is definitely a clear message both to the West and the East about the formation of a new geopolitical reality that everyone will have to reckon with one way or another," the expert said.