WASHINGTON, July 8. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global GDP to grow by 3% this year and by 3.4% next year, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report.
According to the report, the global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) compared to the optimistic growth scenario presented in the IMF’s April report. The forecast for 2027 has been upgraded by 0.2 p.p. "The modest slowdown reflects the effects of the war in the Middle East being partly offset by accelerated demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle thanks to advances in artificial intelligence and its adoption," the organization said.
"Risks to the outlook are more balanced than in April but still tilted to the downside. The possibility of renewed Middle East conflict looms large and could extend commodity price volatility, further threaten supply chains, raise prices, and weigh on financial conditions," authors of the report noted.
"Reescalation of geopolitical tensions would hurt growth and compound inflationary pressures," IMF experts stressed. That said, "if the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz goes more smoothly than assumed and commodity prices turn out to be lower than in the baseline, growth could be higher and inflation lower," according to the report.
"Global growth could rise above baseline if tangible progress is made in international negotiations and domestic policy agendas. Durable peace agreements could rapidly restore global trade routes and supply chains. Trade pacts could lower tariffs and revive investment that has been delayed by an uncertain external environment," the report said.