MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. The United States and Iran choose war of attrition as their 60-day ceasefire ends today, and Russia seeks clarification regarding potential re-exports of US-made weapons to Ukraine by Turkey. Meanwhile, Kiev is using attacks inside Russia to shift focus away from air defense shortages. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: US, Iran opt for war of attrition
The 60-day truce between the United States and Iran, concluded in Islamabad, ends on August 17. According to media reports, the two parties have already agreed to extend the ceasefire, even as neither Washington nor Tehran has officially confirmed this. Experts interviewed by Izvestia argue that Iran has a margin of safety for at least a year in the fight against the Americans, while Washington would not benefit from a new escalation ahead of the midterm elections in November.
There has been a lull between the United States and Iran, with no new strikes, although the pace of negotiations has noticeably slowed. However, the degree of mutual threats remains high. US leader Donald Trump recently warned on Fox News that the United States is capable of "destroying the whole place," but it has so far relied on economic measures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced "measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country." At the same time, Washington continues to claim that it fully controls the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi retorted that the waterway "cannot be captured by either a Tweet or an aircraft carrier," while Spokesman for the Islamic Republic’s MFA Esmaeil Baghaei quoted Dostoevsky in his response to the latest American rhetoric.
Tehran has already achieved its principal goal as the United States has failed to overthrow the Iranian leadership or split society, and the longer the pause, the more expensive any next strike will be for Washington. According to Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, today, Iran feels diplomatically stronger than its opponent and is unwilling to make concessions.
Experts agree that Tehran can indeed afford prolonging the conflict. The country is not facing a food or resource crisis, Alexey Bogatyryov, the head of the Safir think-tank who specializes in international affairs, told Izvestia. The country is not in danger of a situation where the population would take to the streets, which means that the authorities have at least another 12 to 18 months to calmly ride out the current stage of pressure. Nor has its military industry stopped. According to Bogatyryov, Iran is currently producing 200 to 300 ballistic missiles per month. All this, the expert believes, makes Bessent's bet on "an economic Epic Fury" too long a game: Tehran has known how to live in the sanctions regime for decades.
According to Sazhin, the entire narrative around Iran now comes down to the Hormuz Strait, with the nuclear program, sanctions, and regional alliances receding into the background: until the situation around the strait itself is resolved, the parties will most likely not return to the other issues. Nor does the expert expect a quick softening of Washington's stance: the White House will not alter the situation ahead of the midterm elections.
The United States currently has limited military capabilities, Bogatyryov noted. The country is lacking enough rare earth metals and pure aluminum required for the production of high-precision systems, without which it is impossible to conduct large-scale military operations. In addition, the American media is increasingly filled with reports about the depletion of stocks of interceptor missiles for US air defense and missile defense systems, in particular, Patriots and THAADs, something that the White House has actively denied though. Therefore, the United States is actually forced to wait for a "black swan event" -- some kind of economic failure in Iran or another chance that would allow it to put the squeeze on Tehran without direct intervention, Bogatyryov believes.
Vedomosti: What could Turkey’s potential re-exports of US-made weapons to Kiev mean for Moscow-Ankara ties
Russia has requested clarifications regarding reports about plans by Turkey and the United States to transfer US-origin weapons from the Turkish army’s stockpiles to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on August 15. It is not clear who initiated potential re-exports or exactly how the transfer would be made, the diplomat said. However, Zakharova warned, this will not affect the course of hostilities but may deliver "a serious blow" to Moscow’s relations with the United States and Turkey.
Even as Turkey has long maintained military cooperation with Ukraine, potential supplies of artillery from the Turkish army’s stocks would certainly strain the relations between Russia and Turkey, Ikbal Dyurre, an associate professor at Moscow State Linguistic University, told Vedomosti. Until recently, Ankara maintained a balance between the two warring sides in the Ukraine conflict, while the implementation of this plan would tip the balance toward the country that favors Kiev more and reducing its capacity as a mediator. "Turkey is indeed weighing its pros and cons. But amid a tough political and economic situation as well as regional circumstances, its reliance on the US administration’s stance has grown significantly. Therefore, today, Ankara is forced to act while taking Western countries’ interests into account. And Turkey’s position toward Russia further down the road will differ from its position in previous years," the analyst maintained.
If potential Turkish re-exports to Kiev materialize, Ankara will simultaneously try to ease a potential response from Moscow, Dyurre continued. "In theory, Turkey could meet Russia halfway in the Caucasus where Ankara has a strong position. For its part, Russia could possibly resort to economic pressure. Nevertheless, no one will use this practice to their own detriment," the expert concluded.
Turkey purchased the US weaponry that it could potentially transfer to Ukraine back in the 1990s, and today, it is planning to replace those weapons with domestic counterparts, Turkish political analyst Ali Emre Sucu argued. In other words, the expert noted, Ankara is viewing this process as an opportunity to both localize and modernize its defense industry. US and Turkish officials have not yet commented on this issue, Sucu said. "Besides, as a NATO ally, Ankara must honor its obligations to the alliance. I assume Moscow too understands this. Therefore, if a crisis arises in the Russia-Turkey relations, it would be advisable for the two sides to settle it through diplomatic channels," he said.
Izvestia: Kiev uses attacks inside Russia to divert attention from air defense shortage
On Saturday night, Ukraine launched a new massive drone attack on Russian regions as our country's air defenses intercepted and destroyed 822 Ukrainian UAVs. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes on Ukrainian military-industrial plants, including those involved in the production of missiles and drones. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Kiev is mostly seeking media attention with its large-scale attacks inside Russia as it tries to distract attention from the shortage of missiles for air defense systems and corruption scandals surrounding the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
Ukraine has either completely exhausted ammunition stocks for Western air defenses or it is conserving them to protect key infrastructure facilities and the government’s headquarters, military expert Boris Dzherelievsky believes. According to him, Kiev's public silence has been an instrument of exerting information and political pressure on its European partners. Thus, the Ukrainian side demonstrates a shortfall in its air defense system, hoping to force EU countries to share their remaining missiles, the expert argued.
Military expert Dmitry Kornev highlighted the growing effectiveness of Russia’s combined attacks and the parallel weakening of Ukraine’s air defense system in an interview with Izvestia. "The Russian Armed Forces targeted not just infrastructure supporting Ukrainian troops but the Ukrainian backbone defense plants in its latest combined strike. The attack that struck a Firepoint plant, an UKR DEFENCE site and strategic facilities in Kremenchug and Krivoy Rog has significantly undermined the Ukrainian army’s autonomous production capabilities," he explained.
Against this backdrop, the depletion of air defense systems is becoming a critical problem for Kiev. "This shortage is aggravated by large-scale corruption in the structure of the defense sector and the Ukrainian leadership’s close circle," the expert noted.
Meanwhile, massive drone attacks on the Moscow Region have had a media and political impact only. Diverting the focus away from the line of engagement to the Russian capital and Russian region is explained by Kiev’s ambitions to address political tasks, with provoking social tensions, destabilizing the situation and spreading panic among the population being key goals, Dzherelievsky argued.
Besides, Ukrainian attacks targeting Moscow and the Moscow Region directly contradict Vladimir Zelensky’s peace rhetoric, Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist who sits on the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, told Izvestia. "Zelensky's whole desire for peace is simply a desire for respite so the West can take a break, produce as much ammunition as possible, and accumulate finances," he said. "On the one hand, Ukraine says that it stays `strong’ and is capable of delivering such attacks. On the other hand, they say how weak they are, without enough interceptor missiles. As a result, this paints quite a schizophrenic picture," he explained.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China backs Russia’s position on Kurils
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has visited the Yasukuni Shrine without actually making any mention of `repentance’ which, among other things, triggered a protest in China. In turn, Japan has included Beijing’s direct backing of Russia’s position on the Kuril Islands among its list of claims to its western neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently traveled to Iturup on a visit that drew an extremely negative reaction in Japan which is now considering more anti-Russian sanctions.
The Japanese head of government reacted quite strongly to the Russian leader’s first visit to the Kurils since 2010. In a post on social media, she wrote that Japan has asked Putin to refrain from visiting since 2024, when the trip was announced. And Takaichi described the visit to what she called the Northern Territories as "insultful for the feelings of the Japanese nation." Russian Ambassador Nikolay Nozdrev was summoned to the Japanese Foreign Ministry for a formal protest.
The situation soon extended beyond the bilateral relations between Russia and Japan as US Ambassador to Japan George Glass reiterated the United States’ support for Japanese sovereignty over the Northern Territories on social media. And Spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry Guo Jiakun voiced support for Russia’s sovereignty over the Kurils at a briefing on August 14.
Valery Kistanov, Director of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalled in a comment to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that under Mao Zedong, China explicitly recognized the Southern Kuril Islands as Japanese territory. The expert believes that Japan will disregard Guo’s remarks. "Japan will simply take note that cooperation between Russia and China, which the Japanese believe is based on anti-Japanese sentiment, has intensified. The Japanese are particularly concerned about the military cooperation between Russia and China. <…> Takaichi has pledged to review the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Development Plan before the end of this year.
The idea of a rapprochement between China and Russia will likely be given particular attention there," the expert believes.
The coordination of efforts in the defense sphere between China, North Korea and Russia marks a separate concern for Tokyo, Kistanov added. "A rapprochement between China and Russia was feared by late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His idea to sign a peace accord with Russia originated from that. As we know, nothing came of that, and now Tokyo seems to have lost faith in this probability altogether," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Export prices for Russian steel rise by 16% in 2026
In July, the average export price for Russian steel stood at $517 per metric ton, or a 16% rise from the beginning of the year, a report from the analytical firm Euler, seen by Vedomosti, showed.
According to a forecast from Euler analysts, the average steel (hot-rolled coil) FOB (Free On Board) Black Sea price will rise to $510 per metric ton by the end of 2026, up 11% from last year.
This year’s growth in Russian steel prices comes amid a decline in metals exports from China, the report reads. China is the world’s largest steel supplier, according to data from the World Steel Association: in 2025, it accounted for 53% of global steel supply. The decline in Chinese steel exports has supported global steel prices, Nikanor Khalin, a senior analyst at Euler, explained.
Experts interviewed by Vedomosti cited another reason for rising steel prices in 2026, namely the armed conflict in the Middle East. The escalation in the region has caused a rise in iron ore prices, higher freight and shipping costs from Asia, and disruptions in steel exports from Iran, Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist at Aricaptal brokerage, explained. Yegor Vershinin, an analyst at Finam, and Vasily Danilov, a lead analyst at Veles Capital, share this view.
Future price dynamics for Russian steel will depend on the actions of Chinese producers amid weakening demand for the metal domestically and the return of supply from Iran, Vershinin argued. He estimates that the average export price for Russian steel in 2026 will range between $495 and $500 per metric ton, representing an 8-9% increase. Suverov expects the price to reach $500 per metric ton.
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