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UN forecasts 5% decline in global trade in 2023 to $30.7 trillion

According to the report, global trade has experienced negative growth since mid-2022, mainly due to a significant decline in merchandise trade, which continued to decline in the first three quarters of 2023

GENEVA, December 11. /TASS/. The volume of global trade will fall by 5% this year to $30.7 trillion, compared to 2022, according to a statement from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

According to the report, global trade has experienced negative growth since mid-2022, mainly due to a significant decline in merchandise trade, which continued to decline in the first three quarters of 2023. UNCTAD noted that global trade in 2023 will be approximately $30.7 trillion, representing a decrease of around $1.5 trillion, or 5%, from the all-time high in 2022. Trade in goods is expected to decline by nearly $2 trillion in 2023, or 8%, while trade in services is expected to grow by about $500 bln, or 7%.

According to UNCTAD, the world trade forecast for 2024 remains highly uncertain and generally pessimistic. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, high debt levels and widespread economic instability are expected to have a negative impact on global trade patterns, the report said. The authors of the document drew particular attention to the growing influence of geopolitical trends, including the declining interdependence between China and the United States.

According to UNCTAD, Russian exports of goods will decrease by 24% in 2023, while imports will increase by 10%. In terms of trade in services, the report's authors predict a 23% decline in Russian exports and a 1% decline in imports.

According to UNCTAD, global commerce would fall in 2023 due to weaker demand in Western countries, bad economic performance in East Asia, and lower commodity prices. These causes all lead to a significant decrease in merchandise trade. In contrast, trade in services increased during the majority of 2023. Trade contraction was more noticeable in emerging countries.

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