MOSCOW, July 29. /TASS/. The risk of a full-scale conflict between Israel and Lebanon is soaring, with the rhetoric of the Israeli leadership showing its readiness for a further expansion of combat operations in Lebanon, says Grigory Lukyanov, a research fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"A full-scale conflict is probable. Its likelihood has been growing over the past few months. Israel's military preparations on the so-called northern front continue unabated. A significant part of the weapons that Israel receives from the United States to replace those it used in the Gaza Strip is redirected to the so-called northern front," Lukyanov told TASS.
"Alongside this, systematic strikes on the border territory, on the territory of Syria, where military specialists from Iran in that country, Hezbollah facilities in Lebanon, as well as the territory of Yemen come under attack and also some other signs indicate Israel's readiness to at least maintain the pace and quality of combat operations at the current level. And, of course, the rhetoric of the current political leadership under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also clearly indicates the readiness to at least further expand combat operations on the Lebanese territory," Lukyanov pointed out.
According to the expert, Israel's aim is to inflict the maximum military damage on its opponents: not only Hamas, but also Hezbollah and pro-Iranian groups along Israel’s entire perimeter border before the US presidential election.
"The favorable climate created by US President Joe Biden - in fact the US legitimized any action Israel may deem appropriate - this climate will end. Any new president, be it Kamala Harris, or Donald Trump, or some third candidate, will be forced to change the United States’ policies somehow. Biden has become the most pro-Israel president in the history of the United States. And those tens of thousands killed in the Gaza Strip in this case are the most important evidence of this destructive American course of supporting the Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip," Lukyanov emphasized.
"If Israel's aim is to inflict the maximum damage and harm without occupying territories, without destroying Hezbollah as an organization, then these aims are quite achievable, and, therefore, the Israeli leadership can go for it. The more so, since after all that has happened in the Gaza Strip, the political damage, the reputational damage will be quite insignificant," the expert added.
US calls
Lukyanov also commented on the US administration's calls on Israel to refrain from any actions that might bring about a further escalation. He recalled that such calls had been sounded for a long time only to have no effect on Israel.
"They have been heard practically since March-April in relation to the ongoing military operation in Gaza. Back then, the US leadership resorted to shuttle diplomacy and official statements by the Department of State to draw a variety of 'red lines' that Israel should not dare cross. But now several months have passed, and these lines have been left far behind. Israel is pushing ahead with its military operations, and in fact, ignoring the American authorities’ statements," Lukyanov pointed out.
"Indeed, the war is not needed today by anyone - Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, or Israel as a state. But it is very much needed by the current Israeli political leadership. The chaos in the regional system has reached such a level that in general, no one and nothing can prevent it today. Neither statements by the Gulf States, nor anything else will be a real obstacle to the Israeli military operation," the expert summarized.
On soaring Israeli-Lebanese tensions
In the evening of July 27, the Israeli army reported another massive shelling of the north of the country from Lebanese territory. One of the rockets exploded on a football pitch in Majdal Shams, where children were at that moment. Twelve people were killed and about 40 others injured. The Israeli authorities blamed Lebanon and the Shiite movement Hezbollah for the incident, promising a harsh response. Hezbollah disclaimed responsibility for the attack.