MOSCOW, October 30. /TASS/. Various factors are restraining Israel from launching a large-scale ground operation in the Gaza Strip; Kiev is continuing to flog Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s "peace formula;" but the Global South is skeptical; and presidents Biden and Xi will meet in San Francisco but the chances are slim for any major Chinese-US agreement. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: What to expect from expansion of Israel’s operation in Gaza
Ground battles between Israeli troops and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip have been raging for several days but the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have not yet launched a full-scale intervention in the enclave, Izvestia writes.
"There currently are two approaches to a potential ground operation. Under the first scenario, Israel will take control of the northern part of the enclave, protecting it from Hamas and creating a security buffer. The second scenario calls for taking full control of the Strip to mop up all infrastructure facilities of Hamas and other organizations," Sergey Melkonyan, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Asian Studies, explained. According to him, Israel will not succeed in carrying out a quick operation given that most of Gaza is interlaced with a maze of underground tunnels and that the approaches to the Strip are heavily mined.
There are several factors that make it difficult to say whether Israel will dare to launch a full-scale ground operation. First, it may well result in heavy losses for the IDF, which in turn would harm Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political ambitions. "The public is pressuring the prime minister to step down because Bibi [Netanyahu] has traditionally sold himself as a political figure who takes Israel’s national security very seriously but his carefully cultivated image as a security hawk is now being seriously tested by this gravest of crises. And, thus far, Israel seems unable to deal with this challenge. It’s difficult to say if the pressure will lead to his resignation. Most likely it will not as he has already made concessions by establishing a united anti-crisis government that actually includes his opponents," Melkonyan added.
"Israel has already lost 1,400 people. These are the highest losses the country has ever suffered in a conflict with the Arab world. They want to keep their soldiers safe, which is why Israel is not taking chances," military expert Viktor Litovkin said.
In addition, a larger-scale operation could also result in the death of the hostages who are being held by Hamas.
Vedomosti: Kiev keeps selling Zelensky’s 'peace formula' but Global South not quick to buy
Diplomats from 66 countries held a meeting in Malta, initiated by Western countries and Kiev, devoted to discussing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenksy’s "peace formula." Moscow rejected the original initiative last year and, so, the third such meeting once again proceeded without any input from Russia’s representatives, Vedomosti notes.
The consultations involved officials from the European Union and some countries in the Global South, which is the primary target audience for the initiative. The first two meetings took place in Copenhagen, Denmark, on June 24 and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 5-6. Participants in the Copenhagen consultations included, in particular, members of the BRICS, except for China and Russia, while China, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which attended the Jeddah meeting, refrained from taking part in the Malta event. At each meeting, Kiev presented its 10-point "peace formula," which includes the withdrawal of Russian troops beyond Ukraine’s 1991 borders and steps to ensure energy security, among other things.
It remains a priority for Kiev to engage various international actors in efforts to promote its vision of a solution to the conflict, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out. As for the participation of Russia-friendly countries, such as India and China, in such meetings, they only attend those negotiation sessions in which they have an interest, but there are no real grounds to say that either New Delhi or Beijing is being drawn into the camp of those supporting Zelensky’s "peace formula," the expert emphasized.
Asian and African countries are well aware of what is going on in Ukraine, and so they "in no way accept" the so-called Zelensky formula, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said. For Zelensky himself, such events represent an attempt to obtain the collective imprimatur of Russia-unfriendly countries, which in turn serves as a lifeline helping him hold on to power in Kiev. To achieve this goal, he needs to share his political plans with non-Western countries. However, Russia’s policy outreach has been far more globally oriented than Ukraine’s, including across the Global South, the expert noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Biden, Xi to meet at APEC but no major Chinese-US agreements in sight
The leaders of China and the US have agreed to hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco on November 11-17. This is the outcome of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s Washington talks with US President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. However, the road to the summit will not be easy because the US has not given up on the strategy of putting pressure on China as a means of preserving its receding hegemony, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping last met in person at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022.
Alexander Lukin, research director at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, pointed out that "perhaps, Beijing and Washington will be able to make agreements on some issues related to bilateral trade." "However, there is no mutual understanding. China has recently been showing interest in that, but if there is a major deal, the Republicans will find fault with it. I think that there won’t be any breakthroughs, but small-scale agreements are possible, particularly in terms of trade tariffs and easier access for Chinese companies to the US market," the analyst explained.
When speaking about China’s demand that the US stop its support for "Taiwan separatists," the expert said: "From China’s standpoint, putting an end to support for separatists means ending officials’ visits to Taiwan and weapons supplies, or at least significantly reducing them. The US, however, is increasing arms supplies, and the level of visits by US officials is also rising. The US in fact supports the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, so there will hardly be any progress," Lukin added.
The Americans also want the Chinese to put pressure on Russia in relation to the Ukraine issue. Ukraine will probably be discussed, with the parties clarifying their positions, but that’s all. China is friendly to Russia and there is growing awareness of Moscow’s position on Ukraine. In addition, trade with Russia is also increasing, the expert noted.
Izvestia: US, South Korea to run defense drills against North Korea
South Korea and the United States will begin joint air drills in the Asia-Pacific region on October 30. The exercise is being presented as an effort to practice joint action amid threats coming from North Korea. Such steps always trigger a negative reaction from Pyongyang and Beijing, Izvestia writes.
According to Andrey Lankov, a professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, the right-wing conservative forces currently in power in South Korea are pursuing a policy toward North Korea that is very heavy on grandstanding. "The government seeks to make sure that all military drills are covered in the media, taking the advantage to exert pressure on the neighboring country. Pyongyang responds to such actions and even provokes them in some cases. At this point, the initiative to play with fire clearly belongs to the South," Lankov stressed. On the other hand, more frequent drills fit into the logic of closer military ties between the US, South Korea and Japan. The expert does not rule out that North Korea may give an aggressive response to another military exercise, particularly by conducting another missile launch.
Apart from Pyongyang, Beijing is also concerned about what the US and its allies are doing. Either the US or its allies in the region are one way or another encircling China with military bases, said Kirill Kotkov, head of the St. Petersburg-based Center for Far Eastern Studies. In 2023, the US obtained access to bases in the Philippines. In addition, Washington is actively cooperating with Taiwan and seeks a rapprochement with Vietnam, which views China as its main opponent in the region.
Regional tensions are growing but they have not reached a critical point yet, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), noted. "China has two standard patterns of responding to growing military cooperation of this kind. First, it’s economic pressure. Beijing may slow down exports from South Korea and Japan, complicating the activities of the two countries' companies based in China, as well as impose taxes on the supply of rare-earth metals used in the production of semiconductors. The second pattern includes a military build-up, namely the construction of a powerful fleet and the development of the country’s nuclear forces," the analyst specified.
Vedomosti: Uranium prices hit 15-year high
Natural uranium futures have reached the highest level in more than 15 years, exceeding $74 per pound, Vedomosti writes, citing data from commodity futures exchange Comex. The metal has increased in price by 55% since the beginning of the year.
The current price is above the level recorded before the March 2011 accident at Japan’s Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Uranium prices were on the decline for several years after the accident and Tokyo’s subsequent move to suspend the operation of all of the country’s nuclear plants, dropping to $18 per pound in 2016. However, later, a gradual recovery began.
In late July 2023, a military coup rocked Niger, a major supplier of uranium to the global market. The country’s president was ousted and the military authorities announced the suspension of uranium exports. As for Russia, risks for uranium supplies come from the European Union’s plans to prepare its 12th package of sanctions on Moscow. Poland and Lithuania, which do not have operating nuclear power plants, are demanding a ban on new deals with Russia’s Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation and Russian uranium imports, while France, Hungary and Bulgaria oppose the initiative.
Dmitry Baranov, leading expert at Finam Management, says that the increasingly complicated international situation and growing demand based on a number of countries’ plans to develop their nuclear energy sectors are key factors behind the rise in uranium prices.
Sergey Grishunin, managing director at the National Rating Agency, points out that the situation where uranium prices were relatively stable changed after the EU recognized that the nuclear energy industry was consistent with the principles of sustainable development. In addition, the US announced plans to boost domestic uranium production and processing, and investment activities require high market prices, the expert noted. In Grishunin’s view, market demand is also growing due to Rosatom’s offers for the construction of low-power nuclear reactors and floating nuclear power plants.
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