MOSCOW, August 5. /TASS/. The decline in world oil prices is related to the latest macroeconomic statistics from the US and China and is unlikely to last long - OPEC+ actions and the reaction of regulators will allow the price of Brent to return to $80 per barrel this year, according to experts interviewed by TASS.
The price of Brent oil futures with October delivery on London’s ICE exchange on Monday fell below $76 per barrel for the first time since January 9 and is now approaching $75.
"The reason for the decline since Friday is weak data on the US labor market, which led to a reassessment (increase) in the probability of a recession scenario. Considering also weak macro statistics from China, the world’s largest oil importer, it is impossible to say that everything is calm in terms of long-term prospects," portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company Dmitry Skryabin said.
According to him, future prices will be affected by the reaction of the US Federal Reserve and its possible rate cut, the situation with financial and economic stimulus in China, as well as the reaction of OPEC+.
"In the past, the cartel has responded quite effectively to price declines and market imbalance risks. It is likely to do so again this time, which will allow the price of Brent to return to above $80 a barrel by the end of this year," the expert believes.
Forecast for the year
Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, also expects prices to recover soon. BCS believes that the average price of Brent will reach $80 per barrel in 2024, but does not rule out increased volatility.
"Taking into account the OPEC+ policy and the situation in the Middle East, we can expect a quick recovery of oil prices," Rokotyanskaya said.
At the same time, she said, market participants are now most concerned about the Chinese economy and uncertain about the future of the conflict between Israel and Iran.
"OPEC+ oil producers are already trying to reduce oil supplies to world markets. Now we need to look at the actions of consumers - oil prices are at quite attractive levels for a wide range of buyers," Rokotyanskaya added.