Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow makes another attempt to resume dialogue with Kiev
Russia’s representatives handed over to Kiev their draft document "with clear wording", Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday. Since the beginning of April, Russian-Ukrainian talks have made little progress. Meanwhile, Russian officials just announced the start of a new phase of the military operation aimed at the complete liberation of Donbass. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the dialogue between the parties should continue even under these conditions, because all conflicts are resolved at the negotiating table.
Judging by the reports of the parties, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations have been stuck in the mud since the beginning of April. One of the reasons for this could be the Bucha episode outside Kiev. After that, the Ukrainian side changed the original proposals.
On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the launch of the next phase of Russia's special operation. According to Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, the main goal of the new stage will be the complete liberation of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, with the defeat (surrender or withdrawal) of the Ukrainian military group centered near Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. After that, negotiations can restart, and progress will be determined by the outcome of the declared battle for Donbass, Suslov noted.
Andrey Sidorov, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, confirmed to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the talks continue to have an impact on the overall diplomatic situation. And, in particular, they assist India, China, Brazil, and other BRICS members in refuting Western arguments that seek to isolate Russia. Furthermore, in the absence of dialogue, it is impossible to demonstrate the Ukrainian delegates' inability to negotiate, according to the expert.
Sidorov added that European countries that lack an autonomous foreign and defense policy have effectively become an economic appendage of NATO, and that Washington favors a military option. Because the longer this conflict carries on, the wider the distance between the European Union and Russia will be, and the better the likelihood will be to tie Russia's hands, which would help step up pressure on China, according to the expert.
Izvestia: New phase of Ukraine military operation generating results
Russian and Donbass troops continue their offensive during the second stage of the military operation in Ukraine. Military infrastructure is being targeted using high-precision weaponry. According to experts, Mariupol, where militants are still holed up at Azovstal, has already become a secondary trajectory. The chief focus is now concentrated on encircling a major Ukrainian group in Donbass.
Rocket troops and artillery continued massive attacks on the front line and the near rear of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian Defense Ministry said. On the night of April 20, they attacked 1,053 Ukrainian military infrastructure facilities. Consequently, 31 command posts, six warehouses storing fuel and lubricants, 910 strongholds and enemy troop concentration centers, as well as 106 artillery firing positions, were destroyed, the ministry said.
Military expert Vladislav Shurygin spoke to Izvestia about the chances for the second phase of Russia's military special operation in Ukraine. "Mariupol has already devolved into a secondary trajectory. The fate of the remaining Ukrainian group in the area has already been decided. The wiser ones are laying down their arms. The rest are pleading for evacuation," the expert noted. "Now, all attention is focused on encircling and grinding down a major Ukrainian group in the Donbass," he added.
According to Shurygin, the initial results of the second stage are already visible. The front line, which had been rather static for approximately a month, began to shift noticeably. "So far, the push has been very cautious," the analyst noted, adding that "The Russian command has not yet deployed the majority of its forces. They have the ability to build on their success after breaching the first lines of defense."
Vedomosti: US-Saudi relations worsening
Disagreements between the US and Saudi Arabia, which have been escalating since 2019 following the assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, have reached a tipping point with Russia's special operation in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported citing diplomatic sources. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, who rules the country, wants, among other things, that President Joe Biden officially recognize his claims to supreme power in the kingdom, along with a change in Washington’s position on the civil war in Yemen, and that supplies of high-precision weapons should be unblocked. Furthermore, Riyadh seeks reaffirmed security guarantees in its confrontation with Iran. Meanwhile, Biden has persistently rejected "concessions" to Riyadh on the Yemen crisis, according to Vedomosti.
As of now, Washington has stopped urging Riyadh to increase oil production, noting that the Saudi side has done nothing that could jeopardize Western efforts in Ukraine. According to a source among Saudi officials, the US views closer cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China and Russia, or even retaining neutrality regarding the situation in Ukraine as a major risk.
Discord between the Biden administration and Prince Salman are advantageous to Russia, but they are only temporary, because Washington’s strategic aim is to back Saudi Arabia — a country that traditionally opposes Iran, Senior researcher fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies Boris Dolgov told the newspaper.
The contradictions in US-Saudi relations are fundamental, systemic, and one of the main elements of the crisis is Riyadh's distrust of Washington, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University Dmitry Suslov believes. The responsibility for this lies with the Biden administration, since it has shown that the Middle East is losing importance for Washington amid the fight against China. Therefore, Riyadh seeks to diversify its relations and look for alternative partners. In part, this also applies to Russia, the expert believes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ex-Japanese PM Shinzo Abe urges US to defend Taiwan militarily
Taiwanese officials boosted their alert level after Russia's military campaign in Ukraine began, fearing that China would follow suit. In the midst of this stressful situation, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe requested that the US make a firm commitment to defending Taiwan. That said, Tokyo would not wish to participate in the conflict, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, but, as with the Ukrainian issue, Japan would find itself leading the way as a senior partner.
While the Taiwanese press and bloggers debate how to respond to a potential Beijing operation, Abe chose to throw the island a lifeline, the newspaper writes. The major argument of his article, published in the Japan Times, is that it is time to get rid of the ambiguity in US policy given the events in Ukraine. According to him, there are certain similarities between the Ukrainian and Taiwanese situations. First, there is a significant disparity in military might between Russia and Ukraine, as there is between China and Taiwan. Second, neither Ukraine nor Taiwan has any formal military allies. However, the island's status is considerably more precarious.
"Japan would strongly prefer not to join wars that would result in civilian and military losses. Although even before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, analysts and the press stated that security in the Taiwan Strait has a direct impact on Japanese security," Head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Kistanov said. "I believe that if there is a conflict between the United States and China, Japan will have no choice. After all, Japan is the United States' key pillar in the region," the expert added.
"Abe wrote this piece because he has always been a foreign policy 'hawk'. This was always the case, even when he spoke with Vladimir Putin, when they were friends," the expert noted.
Izvestia: Russia looks for ways to support metals sector amid sanctions
Russia must revise its World Trade Organization (WTO) strategy by June 1, President Vladimir Putin said at a metal industry meeting. He noted that the necessity for adjustments is linked to the ongoing anti-Russian sanctions, which violate the fundamental principles of the association. Despite severe economic pressure, Russia’s metal enterprises have the potential for expansion. Nevertheless, this will necessitate the launch of long-term strategies, according to Izvestia.
According to Putin, Russia is one of the uncontested global leaders of the metals industry. Meanwhile, the West has recently imposed illegal sanctions on domestic enterprises, including a ban not just on supplies of finished goods, but also on the procurement of specific components for manufacturing. Long-term projects and programs must be launched to support the demand for Russian metal, Putin noted.
Western restrictions can also stimulate the implementation of domestic projects, the State Duma admits. "Perhaps these sanctions will result in reduced domestic market prices. The vacated segment might be utilized for implementing national project and construction. Of course, our metal industries will look for new sales channels. However, the restrictions will affect the entire world, particularly the countries of the European Union," Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Artyom Kiryanov told Izvestia.
Many trends influence the global metals market: draconian sanctions that limit the possibility of exports, as well as the course towards decarbonization of the economy, Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance of the State University of Management Galina Sorokina told the newspaper
According to her, decarbonization trends have shifted Europe's industrial capacities away from "dirty" production, which is what prompted the ban on imports of rolled steel and pipes. At the same time, the limits did not apply to semi-finished products, which account for at least half of all exports.
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