Press review: Who is Biden’s new attorney general and will Doha replace the Astana process

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: How Biden's attorney general will impact Russian-US ties

The US Senate has approved Merrick Garland, President Biden’s nominee for US attorney general. The new head of the United States Department of Justice, who, according to American law, is also acting as attorney general, is expected to intensify high-profile investigations, including those concerning alleged Russian interference in America’s domestic affairs. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Russia-US relations could be greatly influenced by the investigations into the more high profile cases, for example Russia’s recent alleged hacking scandal.

Garland's nomination was confirmed by a 70-30 vote in the Senate. This a very good indicator of support, the newspaper writes, noting that the success of the new appointee is all the more impressive since the Senate is divided down the line between the two parties. Meanwhile, followers of ex-President Donald Trump, on the contrary, spoke out against Garland. Pro-Trump supporters see Garland as someone who would persecute their leader and would not unnecessarily bother the incumbent, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Director of the Applied Research Center, RAS Institute for US and Canadian Studies Pavel Sharikov told the newspaper that the new head of the Department of Justice did not give any obvious reasons that he is agenda-driven. "I don’t remember that Garland was somehow caught up in scandals associated with Trump. In addition, the confirmation of the new attorney general was framed precisely to rule out suspicions against him. It happened after the most recent lawsuit by the Trump team to recognize the November presidential elections as rigged," the expert said.

Meanwhile, how the US Department of Justice behaves when investigating high-profile cases, in one way or another associated with Russia, would be greatly important for Russian-US relations. This primarily concerns the Sunburst cyberattack on US government agencies last December. Sharikov noted that, despite high-profile press reports, the investigation is just beginning. "So far, not a single American official has said clearly yes, Russia is a suspect in this case," the expert noted.

Izvestia: ‘Asian NATO’ plans to hold first meeting of its leaders to discuss ‘Chinese threat’

The leaders of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India will gather on March 12 for a virtual summit of the military-political alliance Quad, which will be the first ever top-leadership-level meeting of the participating states in the informal association’s history. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the event is intended to signal a new level of determination by the United States and its allies to confront China and reflect the desire to give Quad a more significant role in Washington's geopolitical agenda under Joe Biden. Over time the project may become attractive for other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Director of the Institute for Australia India Engagement in Brisbane Ashutosh Misra told Izvestia that in this case, China is the elephant in the room that cannot be overlooked. The summit is a sign of the growing resolve of regional democracies to counter Chinese trade and territorial authoritarianism, the specialist added. At the same time, Head of the National Security College at the Australian National University Rory Medcalf noted that the meeting will normalize cooperation in the field of security between the four countries. The expert explained to Izvestia that this serves as proof that the quartet will outlive Trump and can truly thrive without his confrontational style.

Trump's assertiveness in recruiting allies to suppress China played a role in strengthening cooperation between the four countries. However, each of these states had their own motives to be friends against Beijing, Izvestia noted.

Meanwhile, speculation about Quad’s growing attractiveness for other countries in the region is ringing alarm bells in China. A South Korean presidential administration official said this week that Seoul would consider joining this regional security forum.

The countries of the region may fear a military or economic reaction from China, however, the chaos that COVID-19 has caused in all world economies and China's territorial expansion in the Indo-Pacific region is pushing many states to gradually support a stronger counterweight to China, Ashutosh Misra told the newspaper.

Izvestia: Bank of Russia might raise key rate in 2021, with eye on digital ruble

The key rate could be raised in 2021, Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said in an interview with Izvestia. The decision will depend on the economic situation and inflationary pressures, which have increased in recent years, she explained. At the same time, the regulator seeks to maintain the same soft policy despite any changes in the key rate. Meanwhile, Nabiullina believes that the digital ruble must be thoroughly tested before entering the market.

The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy will remain soft for some time even after the regulator begins to raise the key rate, she noted. "We believe that we will come to a neutral rate of 5-6% during the current three-year period of our forecast. This is necessary, first of all, in order to prevent excessive inflationary pressure growth so that medium-term inflation remains at the level of our target," she said. "For now, inflation remains above the target level, but then it will start to decline, even because of the base effect," Nabiullina added.

When touching on the subject of the digital ruble, Nabiullina noted, "We still have to create a prototype and test it before the digital ruble is widely used", adding that the system should be tested from the point of view of information security, resistance to cyber risks, and implemented when it’s ready. Meanwhile, the digital ruble can be restored even if the device on which it is stored is lost, and this feature will be the main advantage of the new form of money. "But it is important to see how to avoid fraudulent schemes in this case. We are currently working on this," she added.

Nabiullina commented on the growing investment trend among the general population. Thus, the volume of Russian investments in foreign securities reached 1.3 trillion rubles ($17.69 bln), she said. However, a large proportion of the shares and bonds owned by people are held by Russian companies. At the same time, in 2020, people’s interest in foreign exchange assets has also grown. In connection with the trend, the Bank of Russia may assign responsibility for testing unqualified investors to independent structures, including exchanges, if brokers fail to cope with the task, Nabiullina added.

Kommersant: Russian, Qatari, Turkish top diplomats shape new negotiation format for Syria

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s tour of the Persian Gulf region ended with a meeting in an unusual format. In Doha, the top diplomats of Russia, Qatar and Turkey, Sergey Lavrov, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, and Mevlut Cavusoglu officially announced the birth of a new format dedicated to Syria. Now Moscow, Doha and Ankara will discuss the problems of this Middle Eastern country together, at the level of both experts and foreign ministers, Kommersant writes, noting that meetings in this format will become regular.

The official name is "The Consultative Meetings on Syrian Issues." But it is quite possible that it will be dubbed the Doha format, following along the lines of the Astana format in which Russia, Turkey and Iran participate, the newspaper writes. 

According to Lavrov, these consultative meetings are not a substitute for Astana, rather they would merely be a supplement. The Russian top diplomat explained that for a year now, Qatari, Turkish, and Russian experts have been discussing Syrian issues and will continue to do so. The foreign ministers will also meet from time to time. Follow-up meetings are planned to be held in Turkey and then in Russia.

At the same time, the three ministers also announced their support for the work of the Constitutional Committee in Syria and, in general, UN efforts to stimulate a political settlement in the country. To the delight of Moscow, the parties agreed to support the voluntary return of refugees and displaced people to their homes. However, Lavrov was the only one who, during the press conference, mentioned the harmful Western sanctions impacting the economy and humanitarian situation in Syria.

In addition to Syria, the three ministers had other common topics for discussion, including the settlement in Libya and Afghanistan. The latter is especially relevant, given that a meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow is planned for March 18.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia’s industry may revive by December 2021, oil and gas industry by 2023

The Russian manufacturing industry has a chance to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, restoration of oil and gas production will be possible only by 2023, experts at the Higher School of Economics forecast. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, such optimistic projections suggest that Russia will not be affected by a third wave of coronavirus.

"The slower recovery of the mining sector compared to manufacturing after the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will be associated with those actions to limit oil production under the OPEC+ deal, the desire to reduce the consumption of dirty coal in the world and the continuation of the current restrictions due to the epidemiological situation, which will hold back the recovery in energy demand," Head of the analytical research department of the Russian Higher School of Financial Management Mikhail Kogan told the newspaper.

"Despite the possible third wave of the pandemic in the world, the situation in Russia still inspires optimism," Associate Professor at the Department of Industrial Economics of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Oleg Kalenov told Nezavisimya Gazeta. "This is due to the extensive experience accumulated in the fight against the virus and active vaccination of the population. All this contributes to the gradual recovery of the Russian industry from the crisis," the expert added.

In general, the Russian economy in 2020 showed relatively good dynamics, having contracted less than the global one (-3.1 and -3.5%, respectively), the newspaper writes. However, easing quarantine restrictions in itself does not guarantee an automatic return of the economy to pre-crisis GDP growth rates of about 2.2%. The global recession of 2020 - the fifth since the last World War - could still trigger waves of bankruptcies and financial crises that accompanied previous recessions.

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