LONDON, November 30. /TASS/. The current situation around the conflict in Ukraine suggests that Russia may prevail due to the indecisiveness of Kiev’s Western allies, The Economist says.
"The West could do a lot more to frustrate Mr. Putin. If it chose, it could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf Russia’s. However, fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision are getting in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake as well as Ukraine’s, the West urgently needs to shake off its lethargy," The Economist’s op-ed reads. "The reason a Putin victory is possible is that winning is about endurance rather than capturing territory."
The newspaper speculates that the conflict may last for many years, but Russia will be in a better position to continue the conflict than Ukraine after it replenishes its artillery munitions stockpile and ramps up its drone production. The Economist noted that Moscow successfully transfers the economy to military mode, it avoided a split among the elites and social unrest, and it continues to receive substantial income from oil trade, because Western attempts to limit the price for Russian oil failed "because a parallel trading structure has emerged beyond the reach of the West."
In these circumstances, "the mood in Kyiv is darker," the newspaper says, noting that the support for President Vladimir Zelensky has plunged, and internal political struggle has intensified. At the same time, while the Western states its readiness for a long-term support for Ukraine, doubts about the reasonability of this approach are growing. The process of allocation of additional support for Kiev has stalled, both in Washington and in Brussels, and the upcoming presidential elections in the US may complicate the situation even further. The Economist states that Europe does not seriously prepare for a potential return of Donald Trump, who may split Ukraine’s allies.
According to the newspaper, in 2025, the fatigue from the conflict may increase significantly in Russia, as well, but there is no reason to hope for the collapse of the regime. Therefore, Europe must get ready that Russia and its leadership will remain "the main long-term threat to its security." European countries will have to reform their defense structure with consideration of the fact that Russia will rearm itself and its forces will have significant combat experience.
The op-ed underscores that European countries will have to maintain their support for Kiev, ramp up their weapons production and provide Ukrainian forces with modern military vehicles. In addition, The Economist considers it necessary to show a true readiness to admit Ukraine to the EU, to help it carry out reforms, deal with corruption and prevent Russia’s alleged attempts to "to sabotage the country’s transformation into a Western democracy.".