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Euroclear rating’s downgrade could trigger capital outflows from EU — expert

Fitch's decision may be related to the agency's desire to reduce its own risks, deputy head of the specialized department of financial markets infrastructure at the HSE Andrey Stolyarov said

MOSCOW, December 17. /TASS/. The decision by Fitch Ratings to place the rating of Belgian depository Euroclear on review with a negative outlook could undermine foreign investors’ confidence in the European Union and lead to capital outflows. However, it is difficult to predict the rating agency's final decision, experts interviewed by TASS said.

"Fitch has placed Euroclear's ratings on review with a negative outlook due to plans to transfer a loan to Ukraine using Russian assets <…>. This means this is directly linked to the risk of Russian assets being blocked," associate professor in the Department of World Economy at the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs Ksenia Bondarenko said. "Obviously, such a step is regarded as a failure to comply with international law, which, if this plan is implemented, could undermine the confidence of investors from other countries and cause capital outflows," she said.

Fitch's decision may be related to the agency's desire to reduce its own risks, deputy head of the specialized department of financial markets infrastructure at the HSE Andrey Stolyarov added. "It's difficult to predict Fitch's future decision, but the agency warned that in the event of a legal battle with Russia, a rating downgrade is theoretically possible," he said.

Fitch Ratings announced on December 16 that it had placed Euroclear Bank on Rating Watch Negative, which could result in a downgrade of its AA rating. The move reflects the agency’s view of potentially increased liquidity and legal risks for Euroclear Bank and EH (jointly Euroclear) from the European Commission's plans to use the immobilized assets of the Bank of Russia for a reparations loan to Ukraine.

The EU and G7 countries have frozen around 300 bln euros in Russian assets. Approximately 180 bln euros is held in the Belgian depository Euroclear. The European Commission is seeking EU member states' consent to use Russian assets for Ukraine. The issue will be discussed at the EU leaders' summit in Brussels on December 18-19.

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