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Central Bank’s monetary policy to remain tight to return inflation to 4% target

According to Elvira Nabiullina, in the future the regulator will be able to shift to gradual reduction of the key rate in the event of sustainable decline of inflation

MOSCOW, November 9. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia will maintain stringent monetary policy for several quarters for returning inflation to the 4% target by the end of 2024, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

"We will have to maintain tight monetary policy within several quarters for returning inflation to the target by the end of 2024, lending growth rates will slow down, though I would like to stress that we expect lending rates to remain positive next year, meaning they will continue contributing to economic development," she said addressing the State Duma (lower house of the parliament).

In the future the regulator will be able to shift to gradual reduction of the key rate in the event of sustainable decline of inflation, Nabiullina added.

The peak of inflation pressure was passed in the third quarter, she said, adding that annual inflation in Russia will start going down next spring and get to the targeted level by the end of next year.

The Bank of Russia expects inflation at 7-7.5% by the end of 2023, whereas inflation is projected at 4-4.5% in 2024 and close to 4% in the future.

The regulator adjusted its key rate outlook for 2023-2026 in October. It projects the key rate at 15-15.2% by the end of 2023. The Bank of Russia has also upgraded the outlook on the key rate average for 2023 to 9.9% from 9.6-9.7%, for 2024 to 12.5-14.5% from 11.5-12.5%. It also expects the key rate average at 7-9% in 2025 (previously 7-8%), and at 6-7% in 2026 (previously 5.5-6.5%).

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