MOSCOW, May 5. /TASS/. The Romanian authorities will act in line with the general course of the European Union regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections in the country, Ivan Kochedykov, senior expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), said in an interview with TASS.
The first round of the elections was held in Romania on Sunday. The leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians, George Simion, won the first round, gaining 40.96% of the vote. He is followed by Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who acted as an independent candidate and received 20.99% of the vote. Simion and Dan will be the rivals in the second round on May 18.
As the expert noted, Romania is a member of the European Union and NATO, and this "imposes serious restrictions on its ability to maneuver and change foreign policy."
"The Romanian economy is deeply embedded in the European one," he said, stressing that the country’s population is only 19 million people, and according to some experts, even 15 million.
"As a result, military-political and economic levers reduce the potential for autonomy in Romanian foreign policy and a sharp exit from the existing pan-European consensus," the analyst said.
"It is too early to draw a final conclusion - the second round is ahead. These elections are interesting first of all by their domestic political dynamics," Kochedykov noted.
According to him, the first round of the presidential elections in Romania showed that "this was a protest vote" against the policy of "the ruling coalition of the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party over the past five years."
"Most likely, in the second round, the ruling coalition will support Nicusor Dan, and votes of the moderate will go to the pro-European candidate. On the other hand, Simion has some reserves in the form of votes cast for former Prime Minister Victor Ponta. This will be a sharp and tense struggle," Kochedykov said.
Romania's foreign policy course
As the expert noted, in the last few years Simion "has been trying to present himself as a respectable politician willing to follow common guidelines."
"In particular, at the European level, Simion is not in an alliance with the [German party] Alternative for Germany, but with the conservatives of the [Italian Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni group. So, it is likely that Simion will focus on this group if he comes to power," he explained.
"If Nicusor Dan wins, the course will be maintained and will be more consistently pro-European. That is, whatever agenda they have in Brussels, most likely, the same [agenda] will be in Romania," Kochedykov added.
Domestic agenda and economy
According to the analyst, the changes that may still occur in Romania after the change of leadership "will be more of a cultural and cosmetic nature." He noted that Bucharest, like other eurozone members, has some economic problems.
"Last year there was a significant budget deficit. Most likely, this budget deficit will remain this year. The crisis in the Eurozone, the crisis in German industry affects the Romanian industry, the Romanian economy as a whole," Kochedykov explained.
As the expert pointed out, the size of the country and the tools available to its leadership are such that it will not be possible to radically change the situation within five years.
"In addition, the president has no control over economic policy. Since there are no such tools, then, most likely, any Romanian leader - whether Nicusor Dan or George Simion - will focus on cultural policy, on changing the rhetoric," the expert said.
Probability of new unrest
As the expert noted, one should not expect a new wave of discontent in the country during these elections, because candidates - as was the case with Calin Georgescu - are not being withdrawn, and there is "no basis for political protest."
"Naturally, now, as part of the election campaign in the coming weeks, there will be various rallies, a demonstration of forces, a review of the ranks, but these are election events," he said.
"The elections as such have been recognized both by Simion's supporters and Nicusor Dan's supporters," he added.
These are repeat presidential elections in Romania. The planned presidential elections were interrupted at the end of last year by the Constitutional Court of Romania (CC) after nationalist candidate Calin Georgescu received the most votes in the first round on November 24, 2024. This was done under the pretext of illegal financing of Georgescu's campaign, hacker attacks on the digital infrastructure used in the electoral process, as well as alleged, but unproven, Russian interference. Despite the fact that this unprecedented step caused a scandal both in Romania and abroad, the government took note of the CC's decision and scheduled repeat presidential elections.