Izvestia: What new anti-Russian sanctions could the EU devise?
With no specific decision yet on a new package of sanctions against Russia, EU members are now discussing even more restrictions, the European Commission told Izvestia. The EU foreign ministers have already agreed to suspend the facilitated visa regime with Russia, and the Estonian Foreign Ministry said earlier that new sanctions would also target trade and energy. In addition to the G7’s oil price cap, the European Commission is working on a similar scheme for Russian natural gas. However, European lawmakers and experts told Izvestia that the European Union would hardly reach a consensus on the issue, since in that case the region would be left without Russian energy completely.
The EU refers to an eighth package as a seventh, since a "sixth-and-a-half" one adopted on July 22 envisaged toughening the previously imposed restrictions. The six rounds of sanctions were amended twice to plug legal gaps and streamline the measures taken, Paloma Hall Caballero, the European Commission’s press officer for foreign and security policy, told Izvestia.
Asked if the new measures would target energy, she said the discussions were confidential and hence the EC was not authorized to comment. She said the EU would continue mulling all the possible scenarios to restrict the Kremlin in financing the special military operation.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned earlier that if there was a price cap on Russian oil, Moscow would redirect its oil and petroleum products to other markets, namely, to those countries which will be ready to pay a market price for energy. "There has been much talk about an energy price cap, but it would be hard to impose one, with common gas and especially oil markets being global. And it would also be quite complicated to fix artificially low prices for an oil blend while keeping the general structure of global prices for the other blends intact. In that scenario, Russia, it has been stated, would not sell its energy to Europe, which would speed up its reorientation to other markets," Russian International Affairs Council Director General Andrey Kortunov told Izvestia.
The expert believes the EU has almost exhausted the potential of its economic restrictions. "A tough winter awaits the EU, and any additional measures would only aggravate the economic problems it is facing," he said. According to Kortunov, the EU could resort to symbolic measures, like expanded sanctions, with officials and public figures being blacklisted. Decisions to narrow the remaining contacts between Russia and the bloc could also be made, the expert told Izvestia. He expects a pause with economic sanctions with moves to exert pressure on those countries that may be violating the EU and US decisions on sanctions coming to the fore. These include former Soviet countries which have refused to impose any restrictions, as well as Turkey and India.
The EU diplomats may approve suspending the visa facilitation regime with Russia at a meeting on Wednesday.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China opposes price cap on Russian oil
Moscow believes the G7’s threat to impose a price cap on purchases of Russian oil may pose a real danger. On Monday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak described the idea of a price cap proposed by the Western alliance as a key factor of uncertainty for the global market. Additionally, Chinese officials on Monday said they would not support the initiative and that hopefully it would be cancelled. Against this background, the decision by OPEC+ to cut production targets from October 2022 looks exemplary.
Experts warn that the decision could hurt oil consuming nations, since those are faced with inflationary pressure on oil prices and a potential energy crisis this winter. By lowering oil output, OPEC+ could retain its leverage on the market by maintaining reserve capacities in the event of a substantial drop in Russian oil production later this year or lower oil deliveries from Iraq due to unrest in the country, according to Energy Aspects.
The OPEC+ decision raised no questions among experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "OPEC+ has been zealously seeking to prevent an excessive increase in market supply and a significant price drop. In the wake of the summer, the high demand for gasoline and the abnormal heat in Europe and Asia and ahead of a likely economic slowdown in the leading countries amid lower demand for commodities, OPEC+ is seeking to counteract falling prices. The verdict made by the organization is a message to the market that prices at around $100 per barrel look normal to the oil producing club. And if prices remain under pressure, a decision could be made to reduce production targets further," Chief Analyst at TeleTrade Mark Goykhman said. Alexey Kokin, an oil and gas analyst with Open Investments, agrees that OPEC+ has signaled to the market that it would be ready to act to keep oil prices at around $100 per barrel.
Experts are also skeptical about a Russian oil and gas price cap. BCS World of Investment expert Igor Galaktionov said unless China and India, Asia’s largest buyers of Russian oil, join the restrictions, the measures would be ineffective. Andrey Maslov, an analyst at Finam, warns the restrictions could even boomerang without India and China. "If Russia refuses to sell its oil and gas to countries who supported the price cap idea, energy prices would soar, while Russia would continue exporting its resources to other countries using shadow schemes," he said.
And a price cap could be viewed as sanctions relief, Executive Director of the Capital Markets Department at Iva Partners Artem Tuzov emphasized. "While Western countries refused to buy Russian commodities at all previously, now there is an opportunity for supplies," he said.
Izvestia: What should we expect from Liz Truss as new UK PM
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has become the country’s new prime minister. A successor and loyal supporter of former leader Boris Johnson, Truss would lead the ruling Conservative party at least till the 2024 parliamentary election. Notorious for her harsh rhetoric on Russia, Truss used it proactively in her election campaign. And yet foreign policy is secondary for the British, with a solution to the energy crisis and the fight against falling living standards being their top priorities. And the majority of them do not trust the new premier much here, polls show.
The newly elected British PM favors active support for Kiev and believes the goal for London is to have Russia defeated in Ukraine. With that in mind, Truss can be viewed as a direct successor of Johnson’s policies. The outgoing premier was perhaps involved in the Ukrainian conflict more than any other Western leader. He visited Kiev three times since Russia launched its special military operation, and he was accused of overlooking domestic issues due to his preoccupation with foreign policy.
Meanwhile, average Britons are far from concerned about foreign policy issues. According to a YouGov survey, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ranked sixth on their list of concerns, with 13% of the respondents worried about that, while their top three concerns are rising living costs (74%), the economy (47%) and environmental protection (28%).
The key tasks faced by the new prime minister certainly relate to the economy and the wellbeing of ordinary citizens. Energy costs top both spheres, and this aspect holds the most problems, a Westminster official told Izvestia. Energy supplies for the coming winter should be solved simultaneously. And these issues may not be solved by the next election, however, much will depend on whether Russia and Ukraine reach a peace deal, he said.
"The United Kingdom is faring much worse economically than the other West European countries," Vasily Yegorov, an expert on British politics and the author of the Westminster channel on Telegram, told Izvestia. According to forecasts, Great Britain could face 18-22% inflation rates. If the government copes with that issue this fall, it would be easier further down the road. Truss should come up with her economic program in the near future.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev threatening IAEA with alternative nuclear audit
A UN Security Council meeting set to convene on Tuesday at Russia’s initiative over the continued shelling at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is bound to be in the spotlight. On its eve, Kiev officials expressed their dissatisfaction with the fact-finding mission by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the nuclear facility and said alternative inspections, including a nuclear engineering audit, were likely.
On Monday, the Ukrainian mass media also reported that Kiev could find an alternative to the IAEA and that sending another mission to the Zaporozhye plant was already being considered. According to the reports, the issue was discussed at a meeting between Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during Shmygal’s working visit to Germany earlier this week. Kiev explained that the parties discussed sending a potential EU and UN mission to the Zaporozhye power plant to guarantee its demilitarization that would also contribute to Europe’s energy security and independence.
MGIMO professor and Program Director at the Valdai Discussion Club Oleg Barabanov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Kiev would primarily want to get the IAEA to admit that security at the Zaporozhye NPP is jeopardized. And such a statement is likely to be made at the UNSC meeting on Tuesday, after which the issue of demilitarization - ideally, with a Russian troop withdrawal or at least, a permanent IAEA mission under international protection - would be discussed. "The idea of a Russian troop pullout would be pressed. Indeed, if Ukraine has failed to retain its control over Energodar militarily, why not squeeze Russia out of there through global foreign policy pressure?" the expert pondered. He did not rule out that the efforts could be a success in the light of the goodwill gestures already made by Russia. "Kiev seems to expect another such gesture," Barabanov said, adding that such moves bewilder Russian society.
A military expert, Dmitry Drozdenko, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that earlier, only British and American officials raised the issue of a Russian troop withdrawal at the UN Security Council. However, the body cannot make any decision that would be uncomfortable to Russia who has the right of veto and is also supported by China. And yet Russia could benefit from having IAEA inspectors at the Zaporozhye NPP on a permanent basis, because the international mission would see for itself what is happening there, the analyst emphasized. Meanwhile, the power plant itself is safely under Russian control and there are no plans to transfer it to the control of anyone else.
Vedomosti: Russian GDP could exceed 2021 level by 17% by 2030
By 2030, Russia could see a 17-percent acceleration in economic growth compared to 2021, provided a "fast-track adaptation" scenario is implemented, Vedomosti writes, citing a source.
The source quoted Russian EconomicDevelopment Minister Maxim Reshetinkov as saying that at a strategic meeting on key directions of Russia’s economic policy amidthe sanctions. And he was echoed by another source close to the government.
The latter said Russia’s GDP was expected to grow 2.6% in 2024-2025 and speed up to 3% afterwards.
The meeting chaired by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was held on August 30.
According to the sources, the growth rates could be achieved through a new socio-economic program, that, among other spheres, covers the development of new transport logistics and infrastructure, import substitution projects, the country’s independence in technology, digitalization, assistance programs for private investors, a more flexible labor market and regional development.
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