MOSCOW, September 10. /TASS/. Great Britain may say goodbye to sanctions on Russia; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opens door for diplomatic solution on Ukraine; and Russian and Uzbek premiers discuss efforts to boost trade in Tashkent. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Britain may lift sanctions on Russia
London could say goodbye to sanctions against Moscow if they prove ineffective, the British embassy in Russia told Izvestia. However, the House of Lords has warned that no one should expect the United Kingdom to change its attitude to the Ukraine conflict as on this topic, it is fully aligned with the United States.
The sanctions law and regulations adopted in line with it provide a legal basis for imposing, tweaking or canceling UK sanctions, the embassy explained. Sanctions can be lifted for a number of reasons, say, as soon as foreign policy goals are attained or if the behavior that precipitated the sanctions changes. The sanctions can also be lifted if it is found that they no longer serve a useful purpose, the diplomatic mission stressed.
Since the start of Russia’s special military operation, Great Britain has expanded its restrictions more than 40 times. Now, its sanctions list includes almost 2,000 individuals, including Russian officials of all levels, and over 300 companies
"Russia has been a testing ground for Britain’s sanctions toolkit ever since the country’s exit from the European Union," Sergey Shein, researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. However, one should remember that, unlike their European counterparts, the British are a bit more astute in calculating how the restrictions imposed by them, including those against Russia, could backfire amid quite modest economic successes post Covid or Brexit, he argues. Statements about the potential lifting of sanctions should not be taken literally, the expert says, adding that he does not believe any will be lifted at all.
"Rather, the EU and Britain may ease their restrictions to put themselves in better bargaining position after the active phase of hostilities in Ukraine ends <…> in order to fix certain political decisions during peace talks. But they will never be lifted in full," he emphasized.
Vedomosti: Scholz hints at resolving Ukraine conflict peacefully
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems to be working on a peace plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict, Italy’s La Repubblica reported on September 9, citing a source close to the government and the Social Democratic Party of Germany. Scholz is preparing a diplomatic plan with a view to bringing Moscow to the negotiating table, the newspaper said. Among other provisions, the potential agreement could include territorial concessions from Ukraine as the German chancellor’s plan "does not rule out the transfer of some territories to Moscow."
Earlier, the German Spiegel weekly reported that Scholz had decided to put more diplomatic effort into resolving the Ukraine conflict.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that while Moscow does not reject Scholz’s "peace plan," it knows nothing more than what the media have reported.
Artyom Sokolov, a researcher with the European Studies Institute at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, sees the devastating defeat for Scholz’s party and the entire ruling coalition in the state election in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1 behind the chancellor’s change of tack. The government’s approval rating is in the toilet, so the German leader needs any notable success, the expert believes. But Scholz is not known for being a good negotiator, so his peace efforts, even if they are genuine, could fall flat.
Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, for one, does not expect any concessions to Russia, with Germany fully supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Judging from how Scholz approved heavy weapons supplies, including howitzers and tanks, to Kiev, a constructive dialogue with Berlin is unlikely, the expert argues. "Scholz has no peace plan, as all he does is support Ukraine," Belov told Vedomosti. Moreover, he expects the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, a hawk toward the Ukraine conflict, to win in next year’s federal election, making things even worse.
Kommersant: Premiers of Russia, Uzbekistan meet in Tashkent
On Monday, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Tashkent to take part in the fifth meeting of the joint bilateral commission of heads of government. The meeting discussed the agreements reached between the two countries’ leaders in May.
Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov explained that the two countries have set a goal to increase annual trade threefold to $30 bln by 2030. In 2023, bilateral trade amounted to some $10 bln, a 5,4% increase from 2022. Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said earlier that the two economies would need to implement "the existing and new cooperation projects, lift barriers and support small and medium businesses" for that.
Russia’s share in the foreign trade of Uzbekistan has risen by 3.4 p.p. to 18.5%, and Russia remains the former Soviet republic’s second-largest trade partner after China, which accounts for 18.6%. According to Aripov, "the structure of mutual exports has changed qualiitatively, primarily at the expense of high value-added products."
"The energy partnership, including the export of Russian natural gas, oil and petroleum products to Uzbekistan, is progressing successfully," Mishustin said. Russia has also proposed considering establishing high-tech polymer production, localizing the production of civilian unmanned aerial systems and their components. The Russian premier also said that "a fundamental decision has been made to set up the production of railway engineering solutions in Uzbekistan."
Vedomosti: US Congress gets set to vote on series of anti-China bills
On September 9-15, the US Congress will discuss several bills aimed at countering China, according to the House of Representatives’ website.
Among other bills, the US congressmen will consider measures targeting the Chinese electric vehicle, drone, and biotech industries. Also, the legislators will look at clamping down on China’s espionage efforts. For that purpose, a special initiative to protect America from the Chinese Communist Party’s actions may be announced.
The bills go to the deep-rooted anti-China policy in the US, senior researcher at the Department of Military-Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of the US and Canada Alexey Stepanov told Vedomosti. According to the expert, such actions undermine the already slim chance for progress in bilateral relations, even as meetings between US and Chinese officials in the past two years have made some headway. "Regulating the rivalry will be even harder," he forecasts.
Apart from geopolitical reasons behind such measures, the sitting congressmen are also looking to help themselves, Lev Sokolshchik, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, maintains. He suggests that the lawmakers want to score some brownie points with voters by giving off the impression that they are defending national security ahead of the US Congressional elections that will run in parallel with the presidential vote.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Manufacturing sector fuels Russian economic growth in first half of year
Russia’s economy is steadily growing thanks to a healthy manufacturing sector, according to a report from the Federal State Statistics Service on key socio-economic indicators in the first half of 2024, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes. Thus, GDP grew by 4.6% over six months. Russia’s regions saw solid growth in both the industrial and social sectors. However, to sustain this momentum, more will need to be invested in these areas.
At the heart of the economic growth is a booming manufacturing industry in Russia’s regions. Total production growth in the first half of the year reached 5%, with the highest increases recorded in the Central and North Caucasus federal regions (+ 11.4% and 11.5%, respectively).
"However, in a number of macroregions the dynamics of industrial production was significantly lower. Thus, in the Urals federal region it grew only by 1% and in Siberia by 1.4%. One major reason for the slow growth is stagnation in the extraction of minerals," said Alexander Shirov, Director of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
While the general figure in Russia in this sector stood at -0.2%, in the Urals federal region the growth was 0.4% and the Siberian federal region saw zero growth.
Now, the main driver pushing the Russian economy forward is the development of the production and processing industries, not mineral extraction.
The current model of Russian economic development is characterized by the increased role of the real sector and most notably, manufacturing, according to Shirov. In the first half of the year, the growth of processing in Russia reached 9%. The key hubs for manufacturing growth were the Central federal region (+12.7%), the North-Western federal region (+8.3%), the North Caucasus federal region (+12.3%) and the Volga federal region (10%).
Among the fastest-growing regions are Dagestan (+40.2%), the Chuvash Republic (+24.6%), Udmurtia (+16.7%), the Perm Region (+17.4%), Moscow (+14.6%), the Samara Region (+15.7), the Kaluga Region (+14%) and the Vladimir Region (+13.8%), Shirov noted.
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