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Analysts upgrade Russia’s key rate, inflation forecasts — Central Bank

Inflation outlook has been upgraded to 9.2% (+1.5 pp compared to October) for 2024, to 6% (+0.7 pp) for 2025, and to 4.5% (+0.4 pp) for 2026

MOSCOW, December 11. /TASS/. Expectations by analysts polled by the Bank of Russia on the key rate and inflation have been upgraded on the whole horizon, the regulator said in a statement published on its website.

In particular, the median forecast for 2024 is 17.5% per annum (+0.2 pp compared to October forecast). It suggests that in December 2024, the average key rate will total 21.5% per annum. Expectations for 2025 and 2026 are 21.3% per annum (+3.3 pp) and 14.6% per annum (+2.1 pp), respectively. The forecast until the end of the horizon is 10.4% per annum (+1.4 pp), which is higher than the median estimate of neutral key rate (+8% per annum).

Inflation outlook has been upgraded to 9.2% (+1.5 pp compared to October) for 2024, to 6% (+0.7 pp) for 2025, and to 4.5% (+0.4 pp) for 2026. Analysts expect inflation to return to the target in 2027.

GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded to 3.8% (+0.1 pp). Projections for 2025 and 2026 have been downgraded to 1.5% (-0.3 pp) and 1.7% (-0.2 pp), respectively, while the forecast until the end of the horizon remained intact at 1.9%. The median estimate of long-term growth rates also remained unchanged at 1.8%. Analysts project GDP growth in 2027 compared to 2021 to total +11.7% (+12.2% in October).

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