MOSCOW, March 6. /TASS/. Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries may fall to 67-69 billion cubic meters in 2023, say analysts at the Energy Development Center, adding that only 33 billion cubic meters of this volume will go to Europe.
"According to our estimates, Gazprom's gas exports to non-CIS countries in 2023 may amount to about 67-69 billion cubic meters, including 33 billion cubic meters to Europe, 21 billion cubic meters to Turkey (half of the volumes supplied there are linked to European prices) and 24-25 billion cubic meters to China. If we assume that the price of gas in the EU during the year averages $700 per 1,000 cubic meters, then the average price of Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries may be below $600 per 1,000 cubic meters," the analysts say in the report.
Considering that gas prices are not the highest, a drop in supplies may lead to the Russian budget receiving less than 125 billion rubles ($1.6 bln) from the export duty on gas this year, and the payment of the holding’s final dividends for 2022 comes into question.
For comparison: in 2022, Gazprom delivered 100.9 billion cubic meters of gas to non-CIS countries. The drop in exports compared to 2021 was 45.5%.
Gazprom's export earnings from deliveries to the EU in January could fall to $1.8 billion, and in February - to $1.1 billion, against $3.3 billion in December, according to estimates from the Energy Development Center.
In December 2022, Gazprom's exports to Europe (excluding Turkey) amounted to 2.27 billion cubic meters, and in January and February, amid warm weather and cheaper gas on the spot market, deliveries fell to 1.46 and 1.58 billion cubic meters, respectively, according to the report.
Nevertheless, the analysts expect an increase in Gazprom's exports to Europe in March-April to 2 billion cubic meters per month.
The payment of the final dividends of the gas holding for 2022 is also unlikely, experts say.
"Gazprom has already paid an interim dividend of 1.2 trillion rubles ($15.8 bln) in 2022, giving away half of its IFRS net profit for the first half of 2022. In the second half of 2022, in our opinion, the company's net income, taking into account adjustments, could be minimal or even zero. In this case, taking into account budget needs, Gazprom may refuse to pay final dividends for 2022 or limit itself to a token amount," the analysts at the Energy Development Center concluded.