BEIJING, May 12. /TASS/. Russia’s offer for direct talks with Ukraine underscores that Moscow has military dominance and controls the initiative in ending the conflict, while Kiev lacks a strategy for responding to the proposal, and the West appears focused on brokering agreements akin to the Minsk accords to buy Ukraine time to pursue military action, Zheng Renyi, an expert with the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai, told TASS.
"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin has proposed ceasefires twice, on Easter and Victory Day, showing an intent to ease the intensity of the conflict. Afterward, he invited Ukraine to direct talks. This indicates that Russia not only possesses clear military superiority <...> but also directs the initiative in terms of ending the conflict and setting the framework and pace of the talks," the expert noted.
In his opinion, the West’s reaction appears passive and even negative. According to Zheng, Russia’s call for talks carries elements of both inevitability and surprise. "What’s inevitable is that given the battlefield situation and the parties’ underlying needs regarding war and peace, favorable conditions now exist. The surprising part is the short deadline. This prevents Ukraine and the West from launching major operations to influence negotiations. Furthermore, due to the time limit, Ukraine lacks a well-developed Plan B to present an effective response. Such diplomatic unreadiness not only amplifies their inactivity but also strips them of the chance to use the limited time to pursue real peace," Zheng said.
The expert recalled that Western countries had repeatedly proposed ceasefires in the past, though often just to allow Ukraine time to regroup, rather than to genuinely resolve the conflict. "If talks proceed, their nature and importance may resemble the Istanbul negotiations three years ago. Back then, the chances of ending the conflict were high, but pressure from the West, particularly the UK, blocked a peace deal. Today, the West holds a similar stance, backing Ukraine’s continued resistance. They are willing to risk Ukraine for the sake of the anti-Russian coalition, especially in Europe," he observed.
"Western countries appear intent on crafting a new version of the 2014 Minsk Agreements to stall for time, rearm Ukraine, and extend the confrontation with Russia. This view is evident in many European states openly hostile to Moscow," the analyst said.
Meanwhile, the US wants to shed "the burden of the Ukraine conflict," Zheng added. But European countries remain split. "In this climate, the West lacks both the capacity and a unified strategy to advance peace. Yet, it still retains the means and will to obstruct peace efforts," he concluded.
Offer for talks
Speaking to reporters in the Kremlin in the early hours of May 11, Putin urged Kiev to resume direct talks suspended in 2022, without preconditions. The plan is to start dialogue in Istanbul on May 15. Putin also recalled that Russia had declared multiple ceasefires that Kiev consistently broke, including a recent truce during the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in the Great Patriotic War.