MOSCOW, January 24. /TASS/. The Western countries may try to stage a provocation involving Ukraine ahead of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the general director of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrey Kortunov, told TASS on Monday.
"It is obvious that the Olympic factor may serve as a catalyst, because attention will be focused on different things for a while. The Western partners may see this as a window of opportunity. It is to be hoped that nothing like this will happen, but the Olympic Games are certainly not a factor for easing tensions," he said. In this connection Kortunov recalled that the United States and a number of Western countries had declared a diplomatic boycott of the Olympics.
"Consequently, they will be absent from Beijing, and should any incident occur, there will be no opportunity to get in touch at once to reach an agreement. The absence of Western leaders from the Olympics will be a missed chance to agree to minimize the effects of any crisis that may happen at that moment," he said.
Kortunov recalled the negative experience of the Beijing Olympics in 2008, when the then Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili tried to use the beginning of the Games to handle the problem of South Ossetia from the position of strength.
"There was an attempt to use the moment when the Russian leader was in Beijing and the Olympics arrested everybody’s attention. That precedent was not very successful either for him or for Georgia, though," Kortunov said.
While speculating about likely incidents Kortunov said that a potential worsening of the situation in eastern Ukraine was the worst risk of all.
"In other words, if the Ukrainian authorities try to use force to achieve some tangible advantages, if not resolve the problem of Donbass. The Ukrainian army is getting weapons from various sources, including the Western countries, there is a military buildup on the engagement line. Some kind of worsening must not be ruled out. This is one of the likely sore spots that we should keep in mind," he stressed.
"Also, I would not totally exclude the risk of some incidents in the Black Sea, like the one with Britain’s destroyer The Defender in the summer of 2021. A demonstrative violation of Russia’s territorial waters and a clash with some Russian ships or aircraft are a possibility," Kortunov believes.
He sees the risks of an unintentional escalation on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
"When considerable forces are concentrated on both sides, when there is a lack of trust and contacts between the military, any incident, any mistake, any misinterpretation of the other side’s intentions may entail consequences undesirable for both. A great variety of scenarios are possible. Risks remain high, although I believe that neither the West, nor Ukraine, nor Russia wish a big war in Europe," Kortunov said.