MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. Kiev wants more Western sanctions to shut down Russian defense sector; Armenia and Azerbaijan may be headed for another war over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh; and Trump’s fourth criminal indictment is unlikely to dent the ex-president’s popular support. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev wants more Western sanctions to shut down Russian defense sector
As the Army-2023 International Military-Technical Forum takes places just outside of Moscow, bringing together delegations from 70 countries, the Russian army is demonstrating the capabilities of domestic weaponry in action across the special military operation zone. Andrey Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, stated after another Russian missile attack that, "it’s a reminder for us and our partners that even more sanctions are needed to shut down the Russian defense industry," Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
"Russia is demonstrating its capabilities in terms of both defense production and defense cooperation at the Army-2023 forum," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert. "One example of this is the communication between our top military officials and defense industry leaders from East Asian, African and Latin American countries, including China, Russia’s key partner in the field of defense cooperation," he specified.
Meanwhile, in Netkachev’s words, Russia’s activities pertaining to defense ties and cooperation should be aimed not only at maintaining a political dialogue and promoting weapons and military equipment sales, but also at obtaining advanced technologies and improved military products from its partners, which could help heighten the combat capability of troops in the special operation zone. "As of yet it is still unknown how China is assisting Russia in this regard and whether there is any assistance at all," the expert noted. "Ukraine, backed by the US and other NATO countries, keeps convening forums, organizing meetings - in particular, within the Ramstein framework - and expanding ties in a bid to strengthen its armed forces. This is why Kiev still has enough military potential remaining to continue with its attempts to conduct offensive operations," Netkachev said. According to the expert, so far, there are no signs of an end to military activities, while the West is contributing to prolonging the conflict by continuing to supply weapons to Kiev.
"Russia needs military and technical support in order to be able to continue to repel the Ukrainian armed forces’ attacks. Our allies and partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization are the primary [partners] who can provide it," Netkachev concluded.
Izvestia: What’s driving latest round of tensions between Baku, Yerevan
The situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh region started to deteriorate in early August. Azerbaijan reported troop and equipment deployments in the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, NKR). In addition, the peace talks that had brought Yerevan and Baku to sit down together for serious negotiations in late spring and early summer have now reached an impasse. Experts interviewed by Izvestia pointed out that the risk of an armed escalation is growing.
There are several factors contributing to the deterioration of the situation. First, as noted, the peace treaty talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have stalled. The question of the status of Karabakh’s Armenian population turned out to be the main stumbling block, as Yerevan wanted Baku to provide residents of the unrecognized NKR with certain security guarantees and to start a direct dialogue with Stepanaket, the NKR capital. Azerbaijan, however, viewed these demands as interference in its domestic affairs, with President Ilham Aliyev categorically stating that the Karabakh Armenians had a simple choice between becoming Azerbaijani citizens or leaving the territory altogether. The blockade of Karabakh is another important bone of contention as it has provoked a humanitarian crisis in the region.
Andrey Areshev, an expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation, believes that another armed conflict in the region is quite possible. "Armenia is in a weaker position and tends to make maneuvers, particularly engaging international institutions and players. Azerbaijan, in turn, feels like a winner [after its success] in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War [in 2020] and thus seeks to make a peace treaty on terms that it finds favorable. However, Baku is not ruling out the use of force to resolve the issue, via ‘the forceful reintegration of Karabakh,’ which is what they call it [in official Baku circles]. I think that both parties will refrain from using force in August, but in September the situation may change," the expert stressed.
Vladimir Novikov, head of the Caucasus Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, said that the parties have accumulated an entire range of problems and, so far, have failed to resolve a single one of them. "Violence is likely to escalate in the near future. Intense shootouts may begin on the border, people in Karabakh will start dying from hunger, and Baku will move to force the unrecognized republic to surrender. All this will mark the start of the Third Nagorno-Karabakh War, the outcome of which I cannot predict," the expert said.
Media: Trump’s fourth criminal indictment unlikely to dent ex-president’s popular support
The fourth set of criminal charges brought against former US President Donald Trump will only prompt his ardent supporters to rally around the Republican Party’s front-running candidate in the 2024 presidential election, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. This time, Trump has been indicted for attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election in the state of Georgia.
According to Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), the latest set of charges makes it clear that the White House and the established American elite are determined to stop Trump from running in the election. The Democratic establishment is calculating that, given the thicket of criminal charges now facing Trump in various jurisdictions, Republican voters will come to view the former president as too toxic and thus will switch their allegiance to another, more palatable GOP candidate, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is currently trailing far behind Trump in the polls.
"This scenario looks unlikely because, so far, everything is pointing to the opposite: the more charges Trump is facing, the more united and mobilized his supporters are becoming because they can see that it’s about an overt attempt to banish the candidate who is most dangerous for [incumbent President] Biden from the presidential election," the expert explained. In addition, other Democratic calculations are that Trump will end up going to prison before being officially nominated by the GOP or the legal morass will cause his campaign to collapse.
"Despite all the charges, his [favorability] rating is only growing, while Biden’s is declining," said Viktor Mizin, chief research fellow with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "An ideological battle is underway. This kind of hatred for Trump and everything called Trumpism shows how polarized America is at this point," the expert added. Mizin stressed that it only serves to build the confidence that Trump and his supporters need to run a successful campaign and win the election in November 2024.
The struggle between Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again - TASS) partisans and the "old guard" within the Republican Party is another factor behind the new charges, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. According to him, the GOP "old guard" would be more comfortable with a Biden second term in the White House than with a comeback term for Trump. However, despite all the attempts to "cancel" Trump, his poll numbers keep rising largely thanks to the myriad charges brought against him, and there is currently no realistic alternative to the ex-president in the Republican Party, Vasilyev added.
Media: What future holds for Russian ruble after central bank’s key rate hike
The Bank of Russia has raised its key rate from 8.5% to 12%. The last time the central bank made such a move was in February 2022, when it increased the rate from 9.5% to 20% amid the depreciation of the ruble and a quickening pace of inflation. The new rate hike is aimed at bringing the inflation rate back down to the targeted level of 4% by 2024, Vedomosti notes.
However, the key rate hike failed to provide the ruble with the hoped-for support in the markets. The national currency began to weaken in forex trading after the Bank of Russia announced its decision. However, when Bloomberg reported that the Russian government and exporters had discussed the mandatory sale of currency proceeds, the ruble strengthened sharply.
Many expected Russia’s central bank to tighten foreign exchange controls, including at least making hints at a potential return to the mandatory sale by businesses of a certain portion of their export earnings in the domestic market, said Dmitry Babin, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investment. In order to stabilize the ruble exchange rate, the central bank will most likely have to institute capital control measures, including restrictions on the withdrawal of foreign currency or the requirement to sell foreign currency proceeds, Yevgeny Zhornist, an Alfa Capital portfolio manager, pointed out.
The Bank of Russia did not announce any additional measures related to foreign exchange restrictions, yuan interventions or higher requirements for the sale of export earnings, which is what some market participants had expected, Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "Perhaps, the regulator believes that the key rate hike will be enough to stabilize the ruble exchange rate and its impact on inflation," she noted.
According to Belenkaya, given the rise in the key rate, the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar may stabilize in the range of 90-100 rubles to a dollar. "Meanwhile, the ruble’s first reaction wasn’t encouraging as it once again started to fall against the dollar after seeing slight growth. There is probably a need for additional measures to saturate the market with foreign currency, which haven’t been taken yet. It means that the central bank still has room for maneuver in terms of tightening currency restrictions," the analyst stressed.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia to face competition on its way to Moon
The August 2023 "lunar race" between Russia and India is largely the result of a coincidence. However, similar goals and the same designated area for landing lunar missions give grounds to compare the Russian and Indian lunar projects, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Russia’s Soyuz-2.1b rocket carrying the Luna-25 lunar lander blasted off from the Vostochny spaceport on August 11 and the spacecraft is expected to land on the Moon on August 21. Meanwhile, India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission reached lunar orbit on August 5 and its Vikram lander is scheduled to land on the Moon’s surface on August 23. Intriguingly, both spacecraft are to land on the South Pole of the Moon. Whichever craft does so first will make history because mankind has never landed missions in that area before.
"In reality, there is no Moon exploration race between Russia and India because no one has actually begun to explore the Moon yet. Moon research is underway, which in Russia is going in accordance with a program adopted by the Roscosmos space agency and the Russian Academy of Sciences. In India, these studies are in their infancy as they are rather being conducted as part of efforts to develop space technologies. Besides, there is also a political aspect related to the prestige of the country and its current authorities," said Ivan Andriyevsky, first deputy president of the Russian Union of Engineers and chairman of the board of the 2K engineering company.
According to the expert, India is just mastering space flights and missions to send its satellites to nearby space objects solely as a technology of space flights, Moon landing and obtaining scientific information. "Why did the two friendly countries prove to be unable or unwilling to launch a joint mission? It would certainly have been better to make an agreement, share expenses and the outcome of the flight. There is a history of cooperation and it is quite a successful one. The Indians could benefit from cooperation with us more than we would. As for space exploration, India mostly has initiatives and wishes, while we can boast vast practical experience. Undoubtedly, the Americans and the British don’t want Russia and India to cooperate, and try to break the trend in every way they can," the expert said.
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