MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. The global copper market will remain close to balance with a slight surplus this year, but could slip back into deficit next year, according to a metals market review prepared by Norilsk Nickel.
"Overall, the refined copper market is expected to remain very close to balance in 2025, with supply at about 27.7 mln tons (+3%) and demand at roughly 27.6 mln tons (+4%), implying a negligible surplus. Both are expected to rise further in 2026, to around 28.3 Mt (+2%) and 28.4 mln tons (+3%) respectively, resulting in a small deficit and a gradual move towards tighter refined market fundamentals," the review says.
As the company notes, despite a relatively balanced situation in short-term perspective, "persistent production underperformance and new launch delays, as well as limited investment in new mines, keep structural supply risks high against the backdrop of the steady growth of the electricity use per capita, transport electrification, energy transition and AI-driven digitalization, which are powerful long-term catalysts for copper demand."
On copper prices and demand
As the company specifies, copper prices continue to reflect the structural imbalance between constrained supply and an uneven demand landscape.
"The LME copper steadily rose from about $9,195/t in early May to above $10,300/t after the Grasberg disruption. Finally, by early December, it exceeded $11,500/t. Apart from the fundamental supply and demand factors, a significant role in this rally was played by lingering expectations of new Section 232 import duties on cathode copper that may be introduced from 2027 onwards," the review says.
The company believes that the persistent shortage of primary supply also contributed to the rise in copper prices.
Copper production from ore is expected to reach approximately 23.4 million tons (up 0.4%) in 2025 and 23.8 million tons (up 1.9%) in 2026.
"This is largely driven by setbacks at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Congo, which removed several hundred thousand tons of potential supply from the earlier forecasts. Structural issues at El Teniente in Chile and delays at other projects in Africa and the Americas also add to these challenges and foretell a prolonged period of tight concentrate availability," the review says
Meanwhile, copper demand shows mixed regional and sectoral trends.
"In China, transport electrification, renewable generation growth and grid enhancements help keep the overall copper use broadly solid, but persistent weakness in the property sector continues to depress construction demand. Emerging economies in Southeast and South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America remain important markets for the Chinese industrial equipment and electrical goods. At the same time, slower growth and rising trade barriers weigh on Chinese manufacturing, which is focused on exports to the US and other developed countries. In Europe, high energy costs and low consumer confidence restrict industrial activity, even as spending on grids and renewables remains relatively resilient. In the US, manufacturing investments still are in the positive territory predominantly due to the expansion of AI-related data centres," the company says.
Norilsk Nickel is a diversified metals and mining company. Its production units are located in the Norilsk Industrial District, on the Kola Peninsula and the Trans-Baikal Territory in Russia, as well as in Finland.
Among the main shareholders of Nornickel are Interros owned by Vladimir Potanin (holds 37% of shares) and Rusal founded by Oleg Deripaska (26.39% of shares).