PARIS, March 9. /TASS/. Global GDP growth in 2021 may amount to 5.6%, and in 2022 the figure’s growth is expected to reach 4%, according to a preliminary report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published on Tuesday.
The organization's experts noted that the forecast for global GDP for 2021 exceeds the December estimate of the OECD by 1.4%, and for 2022 - by 0.3%. By mid-2021, global GDP should be above the pre-pandemic level, although this will not happen in all countries, the forecast said.
As the report emphasized, the global economic outlook has improved markedly in recent months thanks to the gradual introduction of effective vaccines, as well as additional financial support to the economy in a number of countries. Experts also see signs that the economy is able to better withstand pressure from the measures that are being taken to combat the pandemic.
The organization's experts emphasize that significant fiscal stimulus in the United States, as well as higher rates of vaccinations in the country, could increase US GDP growth by more than 3 percentage points this year, which will positively affect demand from key trading partners. At the same time, significant risks remain, the OECD noted. According to the analysts of the organization, faster progress in the use of vaccines in all countries could sooner remove constraints, increase confidence in the economy and increase costs. The OECD warns that slow progress in vaccine use and the emergence of new viral mutations resistant to existing vaccines will lead to a weaker economic recovery, more job losses, and more business failures.
The OECD experts believe that support for fiscal policy should depend on the state of the economy and the pace of vaccination, while new measures should be implemented quickly and in full. Premature tightening of fiscal policy should be avoided, the experts warned.
According to the OECD forecast, in 2021 the GDP of the G20 countries will grow by 6.2% against 4.7% of the previous forecast, and in 2022 it will amount to 4.1% (previously 3.7%). At the end of 2020, the GDP of the G20 countries fell by 3.2%.
The euro zone countries are expected to have economic growth at the level of 3.9% against 3.6% of the previous forecast, in 2022 the GDP growth rate is projected at 3.8% (previously 3.3%).
The indicators of the main EU countries are expected to be positive. Germany's GDP growth will be 3% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, France's GDP is projected at 5.9% and 3.8%, and Italy's 4.1% and 4%.
Spain will achieve 5.7% GDP growth in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022.The United Kingdom’s GDP, which left the EU, could be 5.1% this year and 4.7% in 2022.
According to the OECD forecast, growth of the economy of Saudi Arabia in 2021 may reach 2.6% and 3.9% in 2022, South Africa - 3% and 2%.