MOSCOW, July 8. / TASS /. The emergence of a second wave of the coronavirus infection in Russia is inevitable, but a strict self-isolation quarantine is unlikely to be introduced by the government, Deputy Director of Research at the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology at the Federal Service on Surveillance for Consumer rights protection Alexander Gorelov told TASS on Wednesday.
"We are unlikely to be locked down under a rigid self-isolation regime. During the first stage, it was essential since medical institutions had to prepare in the first place. Now personnel has been trained, and beds have been deployed given that the main criteria for getting out of isolation is the availability of free beds for patient hospitalization. This not the same as it was at the onset,” Gorelov said.
According to him, with an infection transmitted by airborne droplets, it is pointless to introduce a strict regime of restrictions, since "there is no gateway that would not let it pass." The key to victory over the coronavirus is "natural epidemic control when medical organizations are ready." The expert also noted that the appearance of the second wave of the virus is inevitable.
"I think the second wave will absolutely happen, because the stabilization of the process occurs when 30% of the population has an immune response, and will switch to being a seasonal coronavirus when the immune layer exceeds 60-70%. At the moment, data from a sample study in Moscow shows that there are no more than 20%, maximum 25% of people like that. Therefore, according to the laws of epidemiology and virology, the second wave is inevitable," he explained.
According to Gorelov, this will happen along with the rise of seasonal respiratory diseases during the cold season. Moreover, the second wave can be stronger than the first only if the virus mutates strongly during the summer and acquires new properties. "But the rules suggest that the virus attenuates during circulation among the human population, because it has no task to kill. It lives inside the body, so its goal is to spread, and it’s just looking for susceptible groups in order to spread there," he added.
To date, 694,230 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 463,880 patients having recovered from the disease, according to the anti-coronavirus crisis center. As of July 7, more than 226,200 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Moscow. More than 159,700 patients have recovered.