MOSCOW, October 10. /TASS/. US still refuses to talk Ukraine peace deal with Russia, but that could change after the presidential election; strained relationship between US, Israel complicates Iran conflict; and Biden drops out of Ramstein meeting, opts to stay home and help with Hurricane Milton. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: US rules out talks with Russia on Ukraine
The US does not intend to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine on a bilateral basis, the US Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. This position differs from Russia’s approach, which has expressed its readiness to resume dialogue. However, the situation could turn depending on the outcome of the presidential election, the newspaper writes. Moreover, some European countries have already begun to change their tune on Ukraine, and recent statements from Ukrainian officials suggest they may be open to talks involving the Russian delegation.
"We’ve made it clear that there will be no negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine’s involvement," the diplomatic mission told Izvestia. However, despite this firm position, they noted the importance of maintaining diplomatic contact during times of crisis.
It’s no surprise that the United States is taking this position in the run-up to the November election. "Any negotiation format on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, including direct Russian-US consultations, will depend on political will and interest in Washington," Head of Laboratory for Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Novikov told Izvestia.
On the other hand, it should be understood that the United States, which has spent billions of dollars on Ukraine, needs to save face not only before its own people, but also before its allies. Therefore, any negotiations, especially if the Democrats remain in power, are unlikely to yield quick results - rather, this will be a step-by-step diplomatic process that will aim to first and foremost put an end to the active phase of hostilities. But if Trump wins, things could go much differently, as the Republicans may push to end the conflict quickly in an effort to make good on Trump’s previous promises to do just that, the newspaper writes.
"Ukraine must participate in such agreements and be accountable for their observance. That said, the West cannot be a passive observer here, because it is a participant in the conflict and, of course, it has many tools to influence Ukraine’s position, and it can use them if it wants," Scientific Director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov told Izvestia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Washington’s frustration grows as Netanyahu pushes Israel’s conflict with Iran
Tehran fears that the Netanyahu-led Israeli government will go too far in the ongoing exchange of strikes. Iranian MPs have called for a revision of the country’s nuclear doctrine and urge the government to consider strikes on the Jewish state’s energy infrastructure. The US is watching all this with bated breath, hoping that Israel keeps it in the loop about any planned military actions. Experts tell Nezavisimaya Gazeta that carrying out powerful strikes on Iran’s infrastructure is impossible without US help.
Israeli military officials acknowledge that any plan to attack Iran would require preliminary discussions with the Pentagon. In addition, the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry is said to have requested from Washington the delivery of anti-missile missiles for the local air defense system, which, according to the Iranians, was significantly depleted during the missile attacks.
However, the willingness of the United States to assist in planning an offensive against the Islamic Republic is iffy. The Wall Street Journal’s sources claim that the Biden administration is disappointed that the Israeli government seems okay with keeping Washington in the dark about major covert operations, as was the case with the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.
"I think Biden and company do not want an escalation," Vladimir Frolov, a former employee of the Russian Embassy in the US and an expert on international relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "They especially don’t want strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are deeply buried and can’t be effectively destroyed without US involvement," he added. According to the expert, the United States has so far refused to supply Israel with high-yield bombs with a penetrating warhead.
"Israel’s relations with Biden are irreparably damaged. Netanyahu is just lying to him," the expert believes. He recalled the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah that Israel broke, which Biden publicly presented together with French President Emmanuel Macron some time before Nasrallah was eliminated. "Netanyahu is waiting for Donald Trump," the expert added. According to him, Biden’s team is concerned that an escalation in the Middle East will affect the Democrats’ ratings in the key swing state of Michigan, home to a large Arab community, and tip the balance of the election.
Vedomosti: Biden cancels trip to Germany amid Hurricane Milton, Ramstein meeting postponed
US President Joe Biden canceled his trip to Germany on October 10-13 due to Hurricane Milton approaching Florida. He was expected to attend a meeting of NATO leaders and their partners at the Ramstein airbase as part of the Contact Group on Military Assistance to Ukraine. The Group usually agrees on new military aid packages and the organization of arms deliveries, including new types of weapons. The postponement of the Ramstein meeting will have big political implications for Biden, experts told Vedomosti.
The delayed reaction to both the hurricane and the meeting of the pro-Ukrainian coalition does not help the image of the Democratic administration, and Republican candidate Donald Trump will certainly not stay quiet about this perceived weakness, Senior Researcher at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Kochegurov told the newspaper. Biden himself said at a press conference that he would take part in all the conferences he promised to attend.
Ukraine is becoming an uncomfortable issue for the Democrats, as Kiev’s lack of success is becoming more apparent, Scientific Director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov noted. At the same time, according to him, the hurricane is a justifiable reason for postponing Ramstein, since the president must be in the country at this time to make decisions.
"Meanwhile, in the run-up to the election, the Ukrainian issue is likely to be muted amid calls from the Republicans and their candidate Trump on the need to reduce aid to Kiev," Kortunov believes.
According to Kochegurov, all military-strategic decisions on Ukraine are made long before the Ramstein group gets together, but a meeting there is still necessary because the decision-making mechanism in the West needs to be institutionalized. "Zelensky is also interested in this. With the help of such an event, he can try to gather a group of countries calling for decisive measures," the expert noted.
Izvestia: Moscow, Minsk continue to cement alliance amid Western pressure
Russia-Belarus trade turnover this year amounted to $46.5 bln and by the end of 2024 it could reach $60 bln - cooperation is showing good dynamics, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the opening of negotiations with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Experts told Izvestia that Minsk is unlikely to be able to return to a multi-directional policy going forward, which would have involved building relations with Western countries, among others. Now Belarus is focusing on strengthening relations with Russia and BRICS countries.
"The key [to strong relations between Russia and Belarus] is the long road we have traveled and are currently traveling together. It has been a winding one and today we are facing no shortage of difficulties, but the key is that we remember this path, our common history, and our common roots," press secretary of the President of Belarus Natalia Eismant told Izvestia.
Putin and Lukashenko remain committed to defense and security issues as always, Izvestia writes. Both countries are going to strengthen cooperation in this area, as well as develop cooperation in other areas, including high technology, energy, logistics and transport, as well as agriculture.
The President of Belarus also spoke in favor of bringing the "CIS family" back together. According to him, it would be very good if Georgia returned to the community, Moldova resumed its full participation and the Ukrainian authorities "came to their senses."
"It is difficult to talk to Kiev right now, before the active phase of the special military operation is over. We do not know what will happen to Ukraine after the end of the current conflict. There is some dialogue with Georgia, but there are still fundamental problems that can only be solved at a high political level," Scientific Director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Blocking of Lukoil supplies does not affect oil pumping to EU
The transit of Russian oil through the Ukrainian pipeline system in July and August did not really decrease despite the blockade of Lukoil supplies by Ukraine, two sources familiar with the statistics of the Ministry of Energy told Vedomosti. According to them, in July transit oil supplies to the countries of the European Union - Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic - amounted to 1.1 mln tons, and in August - around 770,000 tons. This is higher than the figures for June, when about 540,000 tons were pumped, and May - 768,000 tons. The average monthly pumping in the first half of the year reached 856,000 tons, according to sources.
In July 2024 the authorities of Hungary and Slovakia announced that Lukoil oil supplies, which they received via the Druzhba pipeline, were stopped by Ukraine. Kiev, in turn, explained its actions by the fact that the Russian company fell under sanctions.
The decrease in Lukoil’s deliveries was compensated by an increase in other companies’ oil production, Vedomosti’s sources explained. At the same time, exports to Slovakia increased - in August they reached the highest level since the beginning of the year at 484,000 tons, the sources noted.
Expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government Igor Yushkov told the newspaper that Lukoil’s lost volumes were replaced by oil previously exported by sea to other countries. Lukoil probably reoriented from Druzhba to shipments through sea ports, the expert believes.
Analyst at Finam Sergey Kaufman does not rule out that swap transactions between the companies could have taken place. Ronald Smith, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, agrees. The oil pipeline system in Russia allows oil companies to have "a sufficient degree of logistical flexibility," Kaufman told Vedomosti.
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