MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. The outcome of the two meetings between Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Brussels are not fundamentally different from the results of Russian President Vladimir Putin-brokered negotiations in Sochi, senior research fellow Stanislav Pritchin, of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of the World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), told TASS on Thursday.
"The results of the meetings that we have before us as a matter of fact build up from the trilateral statement on the truce of one year ago. The agreements that were achieved there, in Sochi and in Moscow in January, continue to be discussed in the same sequence and the same vein. We can see no fundamentally new settlement aspects," Pritchin said. "The truce statement remains the fundamental document that contains provisions for the termination of the conflict and serves as a roadmap for the gradual normalization of relations. Now there has been fresh evidence that the gradual settlement track has no alternative."
That the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have held three meetings in just a few weeks is an encouraging sign. At the same time, it is hard to say how fast their agreement on laying a railway from Yeraskh to Goradiz may be implemented.
"It still remains to be seen when the railway project will materialize. It is outlined in the trilateral truce statement. This settlement scenario has no alternative," Pritchin said.
EU role
The general director of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrey Kortunov speculates that in arranging for the Pashinyan-Aliyev talks in Brussels the EU countries were keen to demonstrate their proactive stance regarding the situation in the Southern Caucasus. "Brussels would like to show that the EU is conducting an active policy and has its own interests in the Southern Caucasus region," Kortunov said.
Yet, the European Union and the United States are unlikely to succeed in their attempts to have a say in the settlement process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Persuading Baku they are impartial will be a daunting task for both.
"In the OSCE’s Minsk Group of co-chairs (Russia, the United States and France) France represents the European Union. But Paris is unable to serve as an impartial mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. Baku suspects, and not without reason, that France tends to support Armenia simply because it has a large Armenian diaspora. It is enough to recall President Emmanuel Macron’s statements made during the conflict a year ago. Those statements were far from being balanced or impartial," Kortunov said.
"There is a big question mark over whether the European Union will manage to demonstrate it can stay objective, too. Even Moscow has experienced certain problems in this respect. The EU’s task will be still harder," the analyst stressed. "The United States will face the same difficulties, should it try to join the process. Especially after Armenia was invited to the US-convened Summit for Democracy, while Azerbaijan was ignored. In all likelihood, Baku took note of that."
Kortunov and Pritchin agree that the chances the European Union will be able to play an active role in the delimitation and demarcation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border look slim. Both Yerevan and Baku would prefer to have Moscow as their partner in this process. In particular, because the border line will be drawn in accordance with the old Soviet maps, kept in Russia.
Brussels meetings
Pashinyan and Aliyev held their first meeting in Brussels on December 14, with the European Council’s President Charles Michel serving as a broker. Speaking afterwards Pashinyan said Yerevan and Baku had confirmed the agreement to resume railway traffic. Under the arrangement, the railway linking them will operate in accordance with the internationally recognized customs and border rules on a mutual basis and under the sovereignty and joint jurisdiction of the two countries. Michel said in a statement after the meeting that the EU would delegate a group of experts to help Armenia and Azerbaijan with border delimitation and demarcation.
Another Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting followed the next day, with French President Emmanuel Macron acting as a mediator this time.