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Nornickel expects balanced state on palladium, platinum markets in 2024

"Due to the much faster-than-expected smelter rebuilding, Russian mine production will recover to the previous year level, while recycling is expected to decline by 5% year-over-year," the company added

MOSCOW, December 10. /TASS/. Norilsk Nickel has revised its palladium market deficit estimate for 2024 from 0.9 mln ounces to a nearly balanced state due to a stronger output in Russia, the mining and metals producer said in its metals market review.

"We have revised our earlier 2024 palladium market deficit estimate (excluding investments) from 0.9 Moz to a nearly balanced state due to a stronger output from the Russian operations and the major revision of automotive demand related to lower than expected vehicle output and the PGM thrifting programs in autocatalyst production in China, Japan and the US," according to the review. The company expects palladium demand to fall by 6% year-over-year in 2024.

Palladium output is expected to decline by 1% in the same period. "Due to the much faster-than-expected smelter rebuilding, Russian mine production will recover to the previous year level, while recycling is expected to decline by 5% year-over-year," Nornickel said.

"In 2025, we expect the palladium market to remain balanced as lower PGM mine production in North America and South Africa will be offset by the rebouncing autocatalyst recycling while the total demand is expected to stagnate on a year-over-year basis if no acceleration happens in response to the interest rate cuts in the Western world and economy support measures in China," according to the review.

In 2025, Nornickel expects the platinum market to remain nearly balanced with a small deficit appearing at 0.2 Moz. South African PGM mine production is expected to follow a downward trend amid mines’ shrinking margins, which will counterweight the falling demand. Platinum demand is on a downward trend and it is expected to lose 3% by the end of this year.

"In the longer run, stable palladium-platinum price parity is expected to be sustained as mutual Pt-Pd substitution in autocatalysts will narrow price differences between two metals, however the PGM basket price will depend on the scale of production optimization efforts in South Africa," the company concluded.