MOSCOW, May 15. /TASS/. The resignation of Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina amid the recent incident involving Ukrainian drones has pushed Latvia to the brink of a significant political upheaval, according to Maria Pavlova, senior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In an exclusive opinion piece for TASS, Pavlova outlined the broader implications of this development.
"The incident with Ukrainian drones has intensified existing tensions within Latvia’s government coalition, serving as the final catalyst for its disintegration," Pavlova explained. "Overall, current trends suggest that any crisis Latvia encounters in the coming months could serve as a trigger for even deeper political instability. Unfortunately, there are likely to be many such crises ahead."
Pavlova emphasized that the ruling coalition has been fragile since mid-2025, with the drone incident exposing public doubts regarding the country’s defense capabilities and fueling opposition narratives.
"Western media are quick to attribute Latvia’s political turmoil to Moscow’s alleged interference and the so-called 'Russian air defense operations' during this pre-election period," she noted. "However, the region has demonstrated it can generate pretexts for unrest independently. Over the past year, Lithuania and Estonia have also faced near-government collapses driven by corruption scandals, disputes over defense budgets, and political abuses."
Looking ahead, Pavlova warned that Latvia might remain without a stable government until the parliamentary elections scheduled for October. Any interim government is unlikely to command sufficient support, prolonging the crisis. This stagnation benefits the current coalition partners, who can divert attention from pressing issues such as embezzlement linked to Rail Baltica construction or healthcare system failures. An interim, caretaker government - if appointed - would likely remain passive, avoiding decisive action.
The crisis was sparked on May 8 when Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced his willingness to resign following the incursion of Ukrainian drones into Latvian airspace. The drones, which were not intercepted, crashed into an oil depot in Rezekne, damaging four tanks. This incident precipitated a government crisis. Subsequently, Prime Minister Silina resigned on May 14 amid a loss of confidence from her political allies.