MOSCOW, March 13. /TASS/. If Russia really wants to increase the supply of natural gas to Europe, this needs to be done in the next couple of years, Alexander Sobko, independent expert, wrote in his column posted by the InfoTEK information and analytical center.
According to him, if we proceed from the current volumes, taking into account the maximum estimate, the volume of pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2023 can amount to 30 billion cubic meters due to pumping through the Ukrainian corridor and along the onshore extension of the second branch of the Turk Stream pipeline. That means that Russian gas exports to Europe, excluding Turkey, will decrease several times this year, the expert notes.
"One way or another, if Russia really wants to increase exports to Europe, then this needs to be done in the next couple of years. There is still a chance to increase the scale of deliveries until a large number of investment decisions are made on new LNG plants that compensate for Russian exports. It is already clear that there will be no 100% return to the previous volumes, both because the share of Russian gas in the European balance was very large even in the context of good-neighborly relations (about a third of consumption and an even larger share in imports), and because these relations will not be the same no matter what happens," he thinks.
Sobko noted that a certain number of gas liquefaction capacities replacing Russian gas, in excess of the planned global demand growth, will still be built, primarily in North America, and in the United States in particular.
According to him, in order to completely replace Russian supplies and not "take away" liquefied gas from its other consumers around the world, Europe needs about 100 million tons of "new" LNG per year. This corresponds to 136 billion cubic meters, which is almost same volume by which imports from Russia were reduced in comparison with pre-crisis volumes, he added.
To increase supplies, Russia has several routes: the preserved branch of the Nord Stream (27.5 billion cubic meters), the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline (33 billion cubic meters per year), transit through Ukraine.
Where does EU get gas?
The analyst noted that the United States promises to build capacities comparable to the needs of Europe in the coming years, but this takes time.
"What is 100 million tons of LNG? On the one hand, this is a quarter of all current production, which has been created for more than 50 years. On the other hand, it looks like they promise to build the same capacities of 100 million tons in the United States. But this takes time, at least five years. In this case, we will see a doubling of the current liquefaction capacity in the United States," the expert stressed.
Nevertheless, investment decisions were made in 2022 to build new LNG plants with a total capacity of just 25 million tons, little more than just enough to cover planned demand growth, he said.
"After all, if we proceed from a four percent annual growth in demand for LNG, then it is necessary to make investment decisions for 16 million tons annually to cover this demand and about 5 million tons more to compensate for the decline in production at some old enterprises due to the depletion of deposits tied to them. For now, Europe solves its problems at the expense of other countries," the expert noted.