NEW YORK, November 8. /TASS/. The US midterm elections to be held on Tuesday will show whether Republicans can snatch control of Congress from Democrats. The vote will also show whether Joe Biden is able to continue pursuing his political course for the next two years or whether he has to fight off constant attacks of his political opponents.
Who will the US be voting for?
In the November 8 elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats out of the 100 Senate seats will be contested. California and Oklahoma have a special Senate election.
Elections for governor will be held in 36 states and three US territories. The majority of states will also elect key local government posts, such as prosecutors general, state secretaries, secretaries of finance and members of local legislative assemblies. California, New York, Texas and Florida are among the largest states to hold elections for governors.
Also, a series of referendums will take place in some states. Abortion will be on the ballot in six states, and voters will also be asked whether they support legalizing the recreational use of marijuana.
Who will win?
Expectations for the outcome of the midterms have repeatedly fluctuated in the United States in recent months. A Republican Congress was quite widely expected amid a worsening economic situation back in the spring. But by the summer, the ruling by the Supreme Court to restrict abortion, a number of mass shootings and lower gasoline prices started to tip the scales to the advantage of Democrats. Later, gasoline prices resumed growth - and so did the chances of Republicans.
According to mathematical estimates by FiveThirtyEight, Republicans currently stand a strong chance (53%) of controlling both Congressional houses, while Democrats’ chances are 16%, and chances are 30% that the latter will win the Senate and lose the House.
The crucial battles for control of the Senate will come into the sharpest focus in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Democrat Biden won the majority of votes in the above-mentioned states in the 2020 presidential election.
Since last week, early voting, including by mail, has been held in the majority of states where the midterms take place. According to an NBC estimate, some 42 million people out of 153 million registered voters might have already cast their vote. In most states, the vote count is expected within the next day, while contentious results may delay it for a few more days.
What will change?
Democrats currently have 220 seats in the House and Republicans - 212 seats, with three seats remaining vacant. Democrats have 48 seats in the Senate, but two independent senators - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - traditionally vote for them. Republicans have 50 seats. Under the US Constitution, the US Vice President, the post currently being held by Democrat Kamala Harris, has a deciding vote in the event of an equally divided Senate.
Now, just an extra Senate seat will be enough for Republicans to be able to block almost any Biden initiatives, and they are standing quite a good chance of grabbing four additional seats. And they are even in a more favorable situation in the House. However, it will be almost impossible for them to obtain enough votes to initiate the impeachment of the incumbent president, and Biden will also maintain the right to veto bills even in a Republican Congress.
Issues of most concern and Ukraine
There has been a tradition to outline major issues of most concern to voters before any elections. Democrats and Republicans tend to hold opposite positions on those. This year, the economy worries the Americans most - as usual, though.
CNN polls in September-October showed that 59% of the Americans view the economy as a most important factor that would influence their vote. Legislation on abortion comes next, trailed by migration issues. Among other problems, they worry about democracy in the US, crime and the right to keep and bear arms, the fight against climate change and the situation in Ukraine.
Therefore, issues of interest to the Americans mostly concern domestic affairs. When it comes to Ukraine, a number of Republicans have attempted to link support for Kiev to the economic situation in the US. However, most Republicans in this Congress hold a moderate stance on the issue. The majority of Republicans supported all Biden initiatives on Ukraine and even attempted to voice a harsher position in a number of instances. The shocking statement by Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republican minority in the House of Representatives, who recently warned that Kiev would no longer receive "a blank cheque" signaled the intentions to place the assistance under a stricter control rather than to cancel it altogether. And yet control of both houses of the US parliament and the need to prepare for the 2024 election may affect the positions of even moderate Republicans.