MOSCOW, January 13. /TASS/. The arrival of US armored vehicles to NATO’s eastern flank is creating risks for Russia, Beijing seems to be planning to abandon belligerent rhetoric against Washington and South Korea shows renewed interest in nuclear weapons. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Kommersant: Arrival of US armored vehicles to NATO’s eastern flank creates risks for Russia
More than 1,000 US armored vehicles have arrived in the Dutch port of Vlissingen and will soon be sent to Poland and Lithuania. Experts are confident that the reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank, which was stepped up after the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, will continue in the foreseeable future. This, among other things, opens additional opportunities for more Western weapons supplies to Ukraine, Kommersant writes.
According to NATO’s logic, these steps are being taken in response to Moscow’s actions, which means that there are currently no factors that could change the situation. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Director General Andrey Kortunov believes that apart from directly contributing to strengthening and rearming the bloc’s eastern member states, the deliveries of US-made equipment to these countries are also creating other risks for Russia.
"The arrival of advanced heavy weapons to the countries on NATO’s eastern flank may further boost efforts to provide Ukraine with the no longer needed arms systems, including Soviet-made ones, that is, everything that they have left. It’s not much, but still," the RIAC chief explained. He pointed to the gradual replacement process where Eastern European countries were getting advanced weapons and older weapons were being redeployed to Ukraine.
"New supplies are strengthening the forces that are stationed in the region and NATO is unlikely to reconsider this policy in the near future. It is an essential issue both from a political and military-technical standpoint," the expert emphasized.
Moscow has repeatedly stated that the West’s support of Ukraine, including equipment supplies and troop training, is prolonging the hostilities.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Beijing abandons belligerent rhetoric against Washington
China may appoint Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng as ambassador to the United States. The envoy’s mission will be to improve bilateral relations affected by disputes over Taiwan and trade, as well as by mutual claims of supremacy at sea. The coronavirus pandemic has negatively impacted the Chinese economy so Beijing needs to normalize ties with the US, its largest trade partner. This is why China’s Foreign Ministry has moved sharp critics of Washington to other positions, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
Presidents Joe Biden of the United States and Xi Jinping of China held talks during the G20 summit in Indonesia in November, Sichuan University Professor Pang Zhongying pointed out. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is now expected to visit China to make another effort to prevent a rise in tensions. His trip will pave the way for meetings between US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Climate Envoy John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese officials. Eventually, this can cause a major sensation as Xi Jinping is expected to visit San Francisco in November for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) event.
How real are the changes in Beijing’s policy? "The change of ambassadors should not be overestimated. They are appointed in accordance with the Foreign Ministry’s rules. Trends in this field are rather determined by the fact that the economic situation in the country is not particularly positive," Scientific Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia Alexander Lukin pointed out.
"Still, policy changes are indeed taking place. Xi Jinping used to talk about the need to act tough, seeking to strengthen his position inside the party and increase public support as people welcome determination and firmness on the issue. However, after Xi was reelected for his third term at the party congress, the problem of power was solved and it’s now more reasonable to pursue a softer course, making sure that direct Western investment once again starts pouring into China," the expert concluded.
Kommersant: Seoul shows renewed interest in nuclear weapons
South Korea’s presidential administration and Defense Ministry have clarified the head of state’s remark that Seoul may once again host a third country’s nuclear weapons or create its own bomb. They claimed that he was speaking "in theory," referring "to the worst-case scenario." However, experts view South Korea as one of the countries associated with the greatest risks as far as nuclear non-proliferation is concerned, Kommersant writes.
According to Center for Energy and Security Studies Director Anton Khlopkov, the South Korean president’s statement should be considered in a broader context. "First, the level of South Korea’s public support for the idea of obtaining nuclear weapons is perhaps the highest in the world (compared to other non-nuclear countries)," the expert noted. "Second, South Korea positions itself as a leader in nuclear non-proliferation but given the background of the issue, not everything is so rosy here. South Korea repeatedly - in different forms and on various scales - launched research that could have or did have a military application," Khlopkov went on to say. "In the 1970s, it was even about a full-scale military nuclear program. This is what, in part, pushed North Korea to develop its own nuclear program. So it’s historically inaccurate to say that the South is moving in that direction because of the North. It was Seoul who started it," the analyst clarified.
Khlopkov also emphasized that "apart from South Korea, Japan and the United States are also taking advantage of the North Korea issue, first of all, in order to build up their military infrastructure in the Asia Pacific region, with an eye on containing China." "In this regard, it’s no surprise that these countries are citing the North Korea factor as a threat that is forcing them to make certain decisions," he added.
In the expert’s view, South Korea can be counted among the few countries whose actions may cause concern with regard to nuclear non-proliferation in the foreseeable future.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How the oil price cap will impact Russia’s budget revenues
The United States Department of the Treasury claims that the price cap on Russian oil has already reduced Russia’s budget revenues. However, the oil price cap mechanism for Russian oil just took effect on December 5 and even Moscow does not yet have data on December’s tax payments, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes.
Director of the ACRA rating agency Vasily Tanurkov points out that the discount for Russia’s Urals oil blend can be expected to rise further in January, which will negatively affect government revenues. At the same time, the 2023 tax increases include an additional tax for the Gazprom gas giant, a rise in the rate of the mineral extraction tax for gas, an increase in the income tax for liquefied natural gas exporters, a hike in the mineral extraction tax for oil and an adjustment of the dampener for oil products. In total, all these measures are expected to boost budget revenues.
According to Alpha Capital analyst Alexander Dzhioyev, if the current Urals discount against Brent remains at the $25 per barrel level, the government will have to either sell foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund in order to finance the budget the way it is doing now or borrow more money on the debt market than is stipulated in the budget.
The maximum discount for the Urals blend will be established in January and February 2023 (given the start of the embargo on Russian oil products in February). Later on, the discount will keep declining. Besides, China’s lifting of coronavirus restrictions is expected to lead to a significant rise in oil demand as early as in the first half of 2023, Tanurkov specified. No matter how many sanctions and various "price ceilings" have misshaped the global oil market, the fundamental law still works that when demand outstrips supply, prices grow.
Izvestia: Russia unveils plan to boost share of domestic industrial software
Russia’s industries should almost completely switch to domestic software by 2030, Izvestia writes, citing a roadmap dubbed The New Industrial Software.
The document points out that Russia’s technology independence index in terms of industrial software should exceed 82% by 2030. According to preliminary estimates, the share stood at a little over 50% in 2022.
"Such targets are quite achievable if the process is properly funded," said Ilya Massukh, Director of the Competence Center for the Import Substitution of Information and Communication Technologies.
"According to the roadmap, efforts to achieve the stated goals include the development of basic software and software for specific industries, the pilot launch of the software followed by steps to expand its use to other facilities, as well as efforts to attract private investment and promote Russian software on the domestic market and on the markets of Eurasian Economic Union and BRICS member states," an official from the Ministry of Digital Development told the newspaper.
The technology independence index of 80% is a goal to strive for because today, the risks are high that the imported software that industries use will stop working. In the worst-case scenario, it may start working incorrectly, which can particularly cause industrial disasters, Institute for Internet Research Director Karen Kazaryan warned. In his opinion, the use of open source software and its fine-tuning to the needs of Russian customers would help to achieve the stated results.
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