As planned, Russia is continuing its advance in Donbass and concentrating its Black Sea Fleet ships in the direction of Odessa. Ukraine’s armed forces in the Black Sea seek to destroy Russia’s oil and gas facilities as well as its military positions on Snake Island. It seems that the Ukrainian army is planning counterattacks on Kherson and Mariupol.
Former Defense Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) retired colonel Igor Strelkov took to his Telegram channel to write that if Russia indeed decided to "retaliate" for the strikes on its drilling rigs and send ships to Odessa then it’s a huge mistake since the adversary is deliberately setting Russia up for such a reaction with these attacks. "And then the fleet heads to the area where they lie in wait impatiently. However, it is quite possible that what’s at stake here is an urgent need to defend Snake Island since an imminent attack against it has been predicted for the past two-three days. Yet in this case then, the enemy is evidently lying in wait and egging [Russia] on."
"It would be naive to think that the Black Sea Fleet vessels would so easily approach Ukraine’s shores just like that and begin an amphibious assault operation on Ukrainian territory," military expert, retired colonel Vladimir Popov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Under the conditions when the Ukrainian army received US anti-ship missiles this is fraught with new losses. However, staying at a certain safe distance, the Black Sea Fleet ships and submarines can launch missiles on coastal targets preventing the Ukrainian army from taking Snake Island under its control."
The expert does not rule out that after completing their mission in southeastern Ukraine, Russian troops will begin an offensive on Nikolaev and then Odessa. "This move, with maritime support, may have an impact. Yet so far there are no grounds seen for a massive advance in the south since the Russian army and allied troops concentrated their forces in Donbass, in the direction of Severodonetsk and Slavyansk," the expert noted.
Kommersant: Ukraine’s Naftogaz to sue Gazprom
Ukraine intends to launch a legal battle against Gazprom over a gas transit contract. It is displeased that in May, Gazprom did not pay in full for contracted capacities although prior to that the Ukrainian company itself had deprived the monopoly of an opportunity to use some of them. According to Naftogaz CEO Yuriy Vitrenko, the $12-bln case against Gazprom which Naftogaz agreed to drop within the 2019 agreements will also be revived. Experts note that the case is politicized, and the hearing may drag on for years, while a final decision may be impossible to implement.
Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach notes that arbitration is a very lengthy process. "Moreover, taking into account that recently an arbitration court made a politically-motivated decision in favor of Ukraine in a dispute on transit and deliveries, then I highly doubt that the new litigation will transpire at all or will ultimately result with a generally accepted ruling," the expert cautioned.
Managing partner of the Enterprise Legal Solutions law firm Yury Fedyukin notes that the prospects of this lawsuit are ambivalent, yet it is predictable that Naftogaz turned to international arbitration. According to him, the dispute is political and it will take no less than a year to review the case.
Kommersant: Brussels set to grant EU candidacy status to Ukraine, Moldova
On June 23-24, the EU is gearing up to grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status for membership in the EU. Hints have been dropped so frequently and openly that it seems that there cannot be any other outcome of the meeting between EU leaders. Although there is no actual talk about membership in the alliance, over the years of European integration, the two countries did a great deal to comply with EU standards.
Vladimir Fesenko, who heads Ukraine’s Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, notes that although the candidacy procedure was swift, it is unlikely that Ukraine will move up just as rapidly from candidacy to membership in the EU.
"This will be decided later, depending on the post-conflict situation. Everyone is realistic. The practice is that first, a decision is made on preparations for talks [on membership], that’s at least a year or two. There is a number of preliminary obligations to fulfill before the end of this year. Then, as the experience of a number of countries that successfully joined the EU shows, it takes from four to six years to conduct talks and implement reforms," the expert told the newspaper. According to him, the process of European integration is, above all, a modernization process.
Meanwhile, Fesenko pointed out that Moscow compared the EU’s expansion to that of NATO.
Igor Bocan who heads Moldova’s ADEPT association thinks that the candidacy has already significantly changed Moldovan politics. "The opposition, no matter what it is, simply has no alternative project other than the European integration."
"If there is a positive response [to Moldova’s EU membership], we are entering a phase when the struggle between political parties will be limited to arguments as to who will implement the European project best," the expert told Kommersant.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Erdogan makes NATO expansion dependent on Turkish elections
Helsinki is no longer counting on joining NATO this month. It won’t be possible to reach an agreement with Ankara which is blocking Finnish and Swedish membership in the US-led military bloc earlier than September, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto admitted. The problem is that Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan de facto linked the issue of NATO expansion with the resolution of his domestic political problems. With the nation’s presidential election just around the corner, Erdogan not only hopes to keep his ratings up thanks to a firm foreign policy but is also counting on the West’s pursuit of his goodwill which means it won’t raise grievances over the use of administrative resources.
Leading Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Viktor Nadein-Raevsky told the newspaper that the opposition is hardly likely to force Erdogan to hold an early election. "So far, he has all levers of power. The authority of the parliament has diminished so, that it is unlikely to interfere," the expert thinks. He notes that the opposition is fragmented which plays into Erdogan’s hands while he himself is quite capable of suppressing his opponents. The expert reiterated how the incumbent president ended the independence of Kurdish mayors who had been fired by the dozen allegedly for their support of the PKK.
The researcher notes that an unwavering stance on NATO expansion may also be caused by the president’s desire to ensure the absence of grievances on the part of the EU and the US. "Yet, of course, it is necessary to take into account that in such situations Erdogan never has a single goal. He usually has several of them. It’s good if one of them is reached and even better if all of them are," the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Switzerland may become visa mediator between Russia and Ukraine
Switzerland may become a mediator between Russia and Ukraine in the sphere of consular and diplomatic services, the Swiss Foreign Ministry told Izvestia noting that this procedure should be coordinated by all parties. Beginning on July 1, Kiev will introduce a visa regime with Russia. The State Duma told the newspaper that international practice allows the use of a mediating country, for instance, a section of Russian interests is already functioning at the Swiss Embassy in Georgia. However, such arrangements always create problems for the citizens of both countries.
Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs Grigory Karasin says that the issue of mediation is a delicate one and its terms are yet to be understood. He concluded that the important part is to have "a real desire to create a structure which would resolve mostly humanitarian issues."
Director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov thinks that the longevity of Bern’s mediation mechanism is questionable. "Lines and the flow of people near the functioning mission have always been huge. The Swiss will simply walk away from mediation after a week when they realize their predicament," the political scientist said.
Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats Andrey Baklanov told Izvestia that the idea of Swiss mediation is technically not difficult, but the arrangement would complicate the provision of humanitarian services. In his opinion, in any case it is necessary to wait until Kiev explains how it envisions it’s visa processes with Moscow.
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