MOSCOW, April 23. /TASS Correspondent Ekaterina Andreeva/. Climatic processes and the anthropogenic impact in the Arctic add doubts to the well-known term "permafrost", as the frozen soil, used as buildings basis, has been melting, and its structure has been changing. This material by TASS is about how rapidly this process is developing, what influences the "thawing" of frozen rocks and how this process may affect economic activity in the Arctic.
The permafrost zone takes at least a quarter of the world's land area and about two-thirds of Russia's territory. Permafrost is far from being a silent icy desert. On frozen ground are developing cities, there appear communications, businesses. People live there, and even trees are growing on permafrost. However, everything may change for the worse if the soil melts due to various factors.
"Permafrost is highly sensitive to climate change. Moreover, in addition to climate change, frozen soils are exposed to man-made and anthropogenic influences. We can see many examples of how houses collapse and roads become undulating under such an impact," Director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) Alexander Makarov told TASS.
Reliable existing and new infrastructures on permafrost soils require constant monitoring of their conditions, understanding the permafrost, and careful attention to forecasts and warnings about possible changes in its properties.
"Until recently, this country has not studied the cryolithozone area comprehensively. The State Permafrost Background Monitoring System's task is to collect this information to monitor permafrost thawing processes in all regions across the country," the institute's director said.
The monitoring system will track the transition of soils into a thawed state in the country's different regions and it will be possible to predict these processes. The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute has become the operator of the system's creation.
How to measure permafrost
"Permafrost exists in the north - on the Arctic Ocean's coast and on islands, and in the south - for example, on the border with China, in the Trans-Baikal Region, in Buryatia. Permafrost in different areas varies greatly, and it has completely different properties and thickness. In Central Yakutia, the depth of freezing may reach almost one and a half kilometers, while on the Arctic Ocean's coast - hundreds of meters," the scientist said.
The State Permafrost Background Monitoring System's observation points have been equipped in Russia's twelve regions. The observation network has been deployed at infrastructures of the Russian Hydrometeorology Research stations. This approach cuts logistical costs and the cost of creating additional infrastructures - buildings, roads, and weather observation systems. All monitoring points are using Russian-made equipment.
Inside 25-meters-deep wells there are 32 temperature sensors, the distance between them is from ten centimeters to 2 meters. The institute's Permafrost Monitoring Center is receiving data online.
"For recent two years, we have been supporting and maintaining opened observation points, collecting and initially analyzing incoming data. We are shaping an overall picture of current processes that allow us to predict further processes. We receive fairly average data, but they are sufficient to understand what will happen to the permafrost over time," the expert said.
Russia presently has 78 monitoring points, established in 2023-2024. The northernmost monitoring point is located on Franz Josef Land, and the southernmost one is located in Tashant near the border with Mongolia. The Altai Region has high-altitude observation points at an altitude of more than 2,000 meters above sea level. The system has been deployed in the Arkhangelsk, Krasnoyarsk, Altai, Yakutia, Yamalo-Nenets, Far East, Buryatia, Chukotka, Murmansk, Krasnoyarsk, Magadan, Trans-Baikal Regions and in the North Caucasus Federal District. The plan is to create 140 wells to monitor permafrost.
Observations' reference point
By analyzing observation results, scientists will identify patterns in the soil temperature formation and will assess regional differences in how permafrost reacts to climate warming in the Arctic.
"Nowadays, we are fixing a conditional reference point, a background from which we will observe in time how climate warming and anthropogenic influence affect frozen soils, how these changes affect economic facilities. This is important in planning economic activities, implementing additional support measures in construction, and so on," Makarov explained.
According to first obtained data, the influence of warm atmospheric and marine masses, entering the Eurasian Arctic, is decreasing from west to east. This is reflected in the lower-level permafrost temperature: inside the well on Franz Josef Land, the temperature is -9.1°C, while on Spitsbergen it is only -3.3 °C.
The seasonal soil thawing depth is also decreasing from west to east. Scientists cannot not rule out the beginning of frozen strata degradation in the western sector of the high-latitude Arctic within the next 20-30 years. The melting process, they say, will not be rapid, but it is necessary to think already now about its possible consequences and to develop effective technologies and approaches to the permafrost preservation.
The ice foundation
Permafrost thawing may have a negative impact on coastal settlements near the ocean or on river banks, and may endanger buildings by reducing the bearing capacity of their foundations.
At the current stage, the scientist continued, it is especially important to comply with technologies of maintaining existing and creating new infrastructure facilities, since they may be the first to be affected by melting soils.
"If a building is made not on stilts, like facilities in the Arctic are usually built, or if it is built on stilts, but something fills up the gaps and they are not cleaned in time, then permafrost may begin to degrade. In a situation like this, the house may simply collapse after a while. Permafrost degradation is normally an irreversible process. Existing technologies do not have a clear effect," the scientist explained.
The thermal stabilization technology is used to strengthen melting soils under buildings. Boreholes are drilled along the buildings' contour, and some of them specialists fill with kerosene, Freon or other refrigerants. This technology is expensive and its use is limited. Therefore, scientists say, this problem is better prevented than solved.
Isn't it time to arrange gardens?
"Climate in the high-latitude Arctic has been changing faster than elsewhere on the planet. In some locations, four times faster, like, for example, in Central Taimyr. Surely, this affects the permafrost and its thawing rate. Further on, there are many other aspects. Its stability and degradation rate strongly depend on the precipitation regime: the more water, the more intense the destruction process is. If the permafrost is covered with a layer of vegetation, then it will remain quite stable," the expert said.
Climate change in the Arctic, like in other parts of the globe, is an ongoing process. Researchers have found that over recent 10,000 years there have been significant natural changes in the Arctic due to natural climatic processes. For example, we know now that the climate in Spitsbergen was warmer 5-8 thousand years ago, and the glacial cover was half the size of the modern area, and there could be no frozen rocks in most parts of their modern range. At the same time, the lands of France, Germany and the center of Russia's European part some 10-12 thousand years ago, on the contrary, were frozen solid. That is, permafrost has appeared and disappeared in many areas during natural cycles of several thousand years long.
In modern times, anthropogenic factors have joined the natural factors that affect climate fluctuations - the greenhouse gases release into the atmosphere.
Scientists have been calculating how much a combination of all factors may accelerate the frozen soils melting, but so far no one has predicted a noticeable warming or blooming gardens in permafrost areas.
"Such scenarios may be possible only in several thousand years from now, but I can barely imagine such a thing. Shifting of natural zones boundaries is possible, and over recent 10,000 years, in the Holocene (modern geological epoch), natural zones boundaries have shifted to the north. It used to be warmer than it is now, but still no tropical plants used to be in these latitudes," Makarov said.
Comfortable permafrost
The permafrost preservation, the scientist said, will not slow down the development of the Arctic territories - interest in them will be only growing. Making the region more accessible may be by using modern technologies. "As for tourists and residents, the Arctic will become more accessible, but the most important factor would be to use new technologies and to have large-scale projects. Nobody will just choose to go to live there for no reason. People need a goal - (to understand) why. There will be new development projects - mining, transport infrastructure, and others," he said, pointing to existing well-developed infrastructures in the areas of the Kara and Barents Seas. Over time, he forecasted, all this will develop and move eastwards.
"With new major projects, we have been moving gradually eastbound, including with the development of the Northern Sea Route and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. This trend will be only increasing," he said.