MOSCOW, March 22. /TASS/. Abandoning the dollar and other toxic currencies in international settlements in favor of the yuan and other national currencies creates new footholds for Russia’s monetary and financial system, according to experts interviewed by TASS.
"The yuan has a good chance to supplant the dollar, given the potential of the Chinese economy. However, it is advisable to build such relations on the basis of some parity, where settlements in yuan are also accompanied by settlements in rubles. Moreover, the leaders of our countries have also repeatedly made this a goal. In general, moving away from the dollar and other toxic currencies creates new points of support for the monetary and financial system," says Mikhail Yershov, Chief Director for Financial Market Research at the Institute of Energy and Finance.
Earlier this week, during the Russian-Chinese negotiations, President Vladimir Putin spoke in support of developing settlements in Chinese yuan in trade with countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. He also expressed confidence that such "forms of settlements will be developed between Russian partners and their counterparts in third countries."
In the future, the Chinese yuan may become an alternative to the dollar in international settlements, but this won’t happen overnight, and it will be accompanied by significant shocks in the global financial system. "The dominance of the dollar is ensured by the huge US debt, which is denominated in dollars. If the confidence in the dollar is lost, the value of this debt will fall, which will lead to losses for those who placed their reserves in US government debt. But since there is no alternative for the placement of funds in the event of their release from the US public debt, we get a vicious circle that supports the dominance of the dollar as a world reserve currency and a means of international settlements," says Tatiana Bondarenko. Deputy Director of the Higher School of Finance, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development of the Plekhanov University of Economics.
She notes that now the US public debt is constantly growing, and the cost of servicing it is increasingly lagging behind the growth of the US economy.
"Two scenarios are most realistic: a controlled reorganization of the US debt, a transition from the dollar to a new reserve currency, or the uncontrolled destruction of the global financial system with a sharp drop in confidence in the dollar, massive depreciation of accumulated debts and bankruptcies of central banks," suggests Bondarenko.
Taking into account global risks and growing tensions around the dollar and other global currencies, one should not keep all funds in only one of these currencies, says Vitaly Isakov, Investment Director of the Otkritie Management Company.
"The rationale for investing in the yuan is to diversify investments and protect savings from the devaluation of the ruble against world currencies. We believe that a reasonable share of the yuan in the portfolio can be from 10% to 30%, depending on the personal financial situation of the investor," Isakov said.