MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia will increase the key rate from 7.5% to 8.5% at the forthcoming meeting on Friday, December 17, analysts questioned by TASS say.
Since the last meeting, the situation in the Russian economy has undergone only slight changes. Despite the fact that the rate hike that began in March this year influenced the slowdown in consumer lending growth, and citizens began to increase their savings on deposits, monthly inflation has not yet shown signs of a steady slowdown. Meanwhile, there is still high uncertainty about its future dynamics.
According to the poll by TASS among more than 20 companies and specialists, at the last meeting of this year, the regulator is most likely to raise the rate by 100 basis points to 8.5% per annum. This move will protect the ruble from depreciation and prevent "bubbles" in financial markets, experts say.
The meeting on December 17 will not be a "pivotal" one, and accordingly, the Bank of Russia will present neither updated macro forecasts, nor the forecast trajectory of the key rate based on its results. Thus, the market will pay attention to the signals from the regulator and assess the balance of risks.
Experts also do not rule out that at the beginning of 2022 the Bank of Russia's key rate may reach 9% per annum, but they do not expect a double-digit values. The regulator will be able to start easing its interest rate policy no earlier than the second half of 2022, provided that inflation and inflationary expectations are steadily declining, experts say.
Forecasts of market participants:
- Otkritie - 8.25%
- Promsvyazbank - 8.5%
- Raiffeisenbank - 8.5%
- Rosbank - 8.25%
- Russian Standard - 8.5%
- Sovcombank - 8.5%
- Deutsche bank - 8.5%
- Ing Bank - 8.5%
- ACRA - 8.25%
- Aton - 8.25-8.5%
- Alfa Capital - 8.5%
- BCS Global Markets - 8.25-8.5%
- VTB Capital - 8.5%
- Veles Capital - 8.5%
- Renaissance Capital - 8.25%
- Sber Asset Management - 8.5%
- Univer Capital - 8.25%
- Otkritie asset management company - 8.5%
- Freedom Finance - 8.5%
- Finam - 8.5%
- SberCIB Investment Research - 8.5%.