MOSCOW, September 8. /TASS/. India is preparing to host the G20 leaders' summit in New Delhi; Sergey Lavrov warned the ASEAN summit in Indonesia about the risks of NATO penetrating into the region; and Yerevan is seeking Western partners. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: India preparing to host summit of G20 leaders, accept African Union into fold
Global and Russian media attention is focused on New Delhi, where India is set to host the G20 summit on September 9-10, bringing together world leaders to seek solutions to the world's most pressing economic challenges. Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes that this year’s G20 summit will be marked by the admission of the African Union as a member of the prestigious international club. In turn, Izvestia writes that sharply divergent views on how to approach reaching a settlement to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian crisis, and how to reflect a consensus view in the final statement, will also dominate discussions.
The Indian capital will welcome the leaders of the world's most powerful countries, which together account for about 85% of global GDP and two-thirds of the world's population. In the days leading up to the summit, however, the press has tended to focus on those leaders who will not be attending. In the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be representing Russia. Additionally, Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be making the trip to New Delhi.
Meanwhile, another aspect of the upcoming summit has led to some speculation: the wording of the final declaration, assuming it is adopted. Russia, as a member of the G20, is vehemently opposed to any direct or indirect condemnation of its activities in Ukraine in the document, which has met with opposition from Ukraine’s boosters among Western nations.
According to John Kavulich, senior editor at Issue Insight, many countries would now like to focus on commercial, economic and financial issues that are more crucial for them than the status of Ukraine and resolving the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. He believes Modi made the right decision to focus the agenda of the G20 Leaders’ Summit on climate-related, commercial, economic, financial and humanitarian challenges.
To the obvious relief of India, as the current G20 chair, another item on the summit’s agenda - the likely accession of the African Union to G20 membership - gave rise to no contentious arguments. Previously, Moscow expressed support for such an initiative. Individual EU leaders have also supported it and, as Bloomberg reported this week, the EU will most assuredly give its official imprimatur to the African Union's G20 membership ambitions at the forthcoming summit.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Africa’s coup trend targeting mainly autocrats in pocket of France
In the past two years, sub-Saharan Africa has been rocked by seven different military uprisings. Oil-rich Gabon was seen as being more stable than Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan, which have formed a so-called "coup belt" of unrest in West and Central Africa. Niger, however, is a unique case. After the military overthrow of pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum, Britain, France, Germany and the EU announced the suspension of aid to the country. Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted that those countries undergoing unrest have primarily been from among France's former colonies on the continent.
Western experts say it is difficult to predict where the next coup might take place. President Denis Sassou Nguesso seized control of the Republic of Congo (known as Congo-Brazzaville) in 1997. President Teodoro Obiang of oil-rich Equatorial Guinea holds the world record for the longest-serving president, having now ruled for 44 years. In Togo, President Faure Gnassingbe has ruled since 2005, after inheriting the position from his father.
"The crisis has hit France's former colonial empire. It is the French in cahoots with various odious personages who have jointly looted these countries. Some [kleptocratic] regimes have simply been overthrown and replaced by others [equally as corrupt]. France has always maintained close ties with these dictators," academic Alexey Vasiliev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
According to Africa expert Boris Pilyatskin, the recent coups have taken place primarily in Paris' African sphere of influence. However, these events cannot be considered entirely homogenous. "This [coup] virus is highly contagious. It affects the configuration of forces in the region, and has an impact on Russia's interests as well," the expert said.
Vedomosti: Lavrov warns ASEAN summit in Jakarta about risks of NATO penetration into region
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking on September 7 at the 18th East Asia Summit in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, warned about the risk of militarization of the Asia-Pacific region due to the penetration of NATO forces and infrastructure into the region. Lavrov also spoke in favor of strengthening the architecture of equal and indivisible security in the Asia-Pacific region and stressed the importance of maintaining mechanisms for multilateral cooperation within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). According to Vedomosti, it is important for Russia to maintain a permanent presence on all dialogue platforms in the Asia-Pacific region.
The top Russian diplomat also met with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Lavrov also raised the issue of rupees held on the accounts of Russian exporters in Indian banks. "Our Indian friends are aware of the problem and are making efforts to find a mutually satisfactory resolution," Lavrov's deputy, Andrey Rudenko, said. During a visit to India in early May, Lavrov mentioned "billions of rupees in the accounts of Indian banks." He also mentioned that the option of converting these funds into another currency was considered.
According to Ekaterina Koldunova, director of the ASEAN Center and associate professor in the Department of Asian Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), it is crucial for Russia to have a permanent presence at all discussion forums in the Asia-Pacific region. "It is crucial for the countries of the region to have this institutionalized platform where participants can discuss issues of regional politics and security. Moscow is interested in dialogue with all of the countries of the region in order to create an inclusive security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region," the expert said.
Kommersant: Yerevan seeking Western partners as ties with Moscow fray
Recently there has been a steady stream of warnings from Yerevan about a crisis in relations with Moscow. The Armenian authorities have said that relying on Russia for security is a mistake, offered aid to Ukraine, planned drills with the US military, and even mooted withdrawing from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Moscow is not hiding its dissatisfaction with its wayward South Caucasus ally, which observers say is increasingly dependent on Western, and especially American, support. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of a new escalation, as Azerbaijan has moved troops to the border with Armenia, sparking speculation about the possibility of a new conflict, Kommersant writes.
Hrant Mikaelian, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, told the newspaper that he believes Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan "is counting on diplomatic support from the United States." "The role of the United States in supporting his rule in the country is also important for him," the expert said.
Political analyst David Arutyunov believes that the Armenian authorities, faced with a crisis in the system of guarantees provided by Russia, are hoping to attract Western aid and support. "The Armenian authorities, having failed to sufficiently strengthen the army, are primarily trying to obtain external security guarantees," he told the newspaper. At the same time, according to the expert, the actual effectiveness of this policy is raising concerns. "The Armenian side is effectively worsening relations with Moscow without receiving any real guarantees from the West," he noted.
Both experts believe that relations between Yerevan and Baku could escalate into a new war. "It is difficult to speak unequivocally about the possibility of a new war," David Arutyunov said, noting that "a scenario of pressure on the Armenian side through demonstrative military preparations is also possible."
Sergey Markedonov, a researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), believes that Yerevan and Moscow should begin a meaningful, frank dialogue about how and where to go next without "tantrums and emotions."
Izvestia: Russian banks expecting key interest rate to remain at 12%
Russian financial market players are expecting the Central Bank of Russia’s key interest rate to remain at 12% after the meeting of the Bank of Russia's Board of Directors on September 15, experts told Izvestia. Analysts believe that the unannounced increase in August would be enough to slow down price growth, as the banking regulator's actions are reflected in inflation with a delay of several months.
The key rate has been raised by 4.5 percentage points in the last two months: once at a scheduled meeting in July to 8.5% and again at a meeting in August to 12%. According to PSB chief analyst Denis Popov, this should be enough to limit inflationary concerns in the medium term.
According to Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, the August hike has not yet fully impacted the market and a pause seems more appropriate.
At the same time, Anderida Financial Group founder Alexey Tarapovsky told the newspaper that the impact of the key rate on the ruble is secondary and has a short-term psychological effect. In mid-August, the dollar was trading above 100 rubles, prompting the Bank of Russia to convene an emergency meeting. After that, the national currency initially strengthened, but its weakening trend then continued.
"The exchange rate is more sensitive to currency control measures, interventions and management of the quantitative parameters of the money supply," Denis Popov believes.
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