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Analysts upgrade outlook on inflation, key rate, GDP growth again — Bank of Russia

In particular, inflation forecast has been upgraded to 6.5% for 2024 and to 4.5% for 2025

MOSCOW, July 17. /TASS/. Analysts polled by the Russian Central Bank have again upgraded their outlook on the key rate, inflation and the country’s GDP growth, according to information published on the regulator’s website.

In particular, inflation forecast has been upgraded to 6.5% for 2024 (+1 p.p. compared to May figures) and to 4.5% for 2025 (+0.3 p.p.). Analysts expect inflation to return to the target in 2026 and to remain at this level further on.

Analysts’ expectations on the average key rate have been upgraded over the whole horizon - to 16.8% per annum for 2024 (+0.9 p.p.), to 15% per annum for 2025 (+2.6 p.p.) and to 10.6% per annum for 2026 (+1.2 p.p.). The forecast for the end of horizon is 8% per annum. Median estimate of neutral key rate remained intact at 7.5% per annum.

GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded by 0.3 p.p. to 3.2%. Analysts expect GDP to grow by 1.7-1.8% in 2025-2027. Median estimate of long-term growth rates has slightly increased to 1.6% (+0.1 p.p.). According to analysts’ forecasts, GDP growth in 2027 compared to 2021 will total +11.1%.

Moreover, analysts expect unemployment to go down to 2.6% in 2024 (-0.2 p.p.), up to 2.8% in 2025 (-0.2 p.p.) and return to the level of 2023 of 3% further on.

The outlook on the dollar/ruble exchange rate is 90.1 rubles per dollar for 2024, 95 rubles per dollar for 2025, 97.2 rubles per dollar for 2026, 98.9 rubles per dollar for 2027 (stronger by 1.1-2.4% compared to May).

The price of Brent crude oil is expected at $84 per barrel on average in 2024. Further on the price will decline and equal $80 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel in 2026-2027 (outlook unchanged).

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