MOSCOW, December 31. /TASS/. The average dollar-to-ruble rate may reach 110 rubles in 2025, while the euro-to-ruble rate may total 114 rubles, Maxim Timoshenko, head of the department for financial market operations at Russian Standard Bank said to TASS.
According to his estimates, in January, the dollar-to-ruble rate will fluctuate in the range of 100-105 rubles, the euro rate will vary between 105-110 rubles, while the yuan rate will stay within the range of 13.50-14 rubles.
The expert also shared with TASS his forecast for the rates of the main reserve currencies against the ruble per quarters (Q) of 2025.
Q1: the dollar: 100-105 rubles, the euro: 105-110 rubles, the yuan: 13.50-14 rubles.
Q2: the dollar: 101-106 rubles, the euro: 106-111 rubles, the yuan: 13.75-14.25 rubles.
Q3: the dollar: 103-108 rubles, the euro: 108-113 rubles, the yuan: 14-14.5 rubles.
Q4: the dollar: 105-110 rubles, the euro: 109-114 rubles, the yuan: 14.25-14.75 rubles
"Geopolitical situation, the rhetoric of sanctions, the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy, as well as the situation with budget spending, will continue to have the greatest impact on the rate of the national currency in the coming year. One can expect that starting from the third quarter of next year, the Russian regulator will begin to soften its monetary policy," Timoshenko noted.
"The current key rate remains high and continues to support the ruble rate, but the main factor defining the rate of the national currency is the exports-imports balance,” he added.
In late October, the Bank of Russia sharply raised the key rate by 2 percentage points (p.p.) to a record level of 21%. On December 20, the regulator decided to keep its key rate at 21% per annum, contrary to analysts’ projections, noting, though, that it will assess the need for raising the rate at the next meeting.