MOSCOW, October 3. /TASS/. The EU’s top diplomats fail to sign off on more aid for Ukraine at their first-ever meeting outside of EU borders in Kiev; Russia seeks regular parliamentary forums and visa-free travel with Latin America; and Washington acknowledges the fading effectiveness of the Russian oil price cap. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: EU foreign ministers fail to agree on more aid for Ukraine at Kiev confab
The EU’s top diplomats failed to sign off on a plan to provide a 5 bln euro ($5.2 bln) military assistance package to Kiev next year at an informal summit in Kiev, the first-ever such meeting outside of the bloc’s borders. European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell expressed his hope that a decision to green-light the aid may still be made before the year-end. The meeting, which had not been announced beforehand, took place almost immediately after the US Congress passed a stopgap funding bill that excludes financial support for Ukraine and in the wake of a victory in Slovakia’s early parliamentary elections by former Prime Minster Robert Fico’s Smer-SSD party, which is skeptical of sending more weapons to Kiev.
Croatian Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Ivan Vilibor Sincic, who is part of the delegation to the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, said in an interview with Izvestia that European lawmakers were seeking to demonstrate their "power and resilience" at the "historic" offsite summit, the venue of which had been chosen "for propaganda reasons." In addition, despite the foreign ministers’ statements of support, the EU may eventually reduce the scope of its assistance to Kiev, he warned. "This could happen as soon as the European establishment finally admits that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has proven to be a complete failure. But it will take them some time to recognize that. On the other hand, they could continue this madness - fighting to the last Ukrainian," Sincic maintained.
French MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia that supporting the Ukraine conflict has become increasingly less popular among Europeans, pointing in particular to the results of the recent voting in Slovakia. However, the expert said, any further Kiev-related steps on the part of the EU would depend on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. According to him, European taxpayers have already paid out more in assistance for Kiev than have their US counterparts. At the same time, this week the European Parliament is discussing an additional 50 bln euros in support for Ukraine over the next four years, which Mariani said was a huge sum as it should be added to over 20 bln euros worth of military aid. However, whether or not more funding is approved will depend on various economic trends. Moreover, Brussels is coming to the realization that the Kiev regime will never pay its accumulated debts back. The peoples of Europe are getting tired of it, and their Ukraine fatigue may soon pass on to EU governments, the parliamentarian concluded.
Media: Russia seeks regular parliamentary forums, visa-free travel with Latin America
The first Russia-Latin America Interparliamentary Conference wrapped up in Moscow on Monday. The event lasted four days and was attended by some 300 lawmakers and experts from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Salvador, Uruguay and Venezuela, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said at a plenary meeting on October 2.
According to Volodin, not only is cooperation among the parliaments of various countries important for Russia’s relationship with Latin America, but it is also critical for "jointly overcoming sanctions and building a multipolar and just world order." "I suggest holding an international conference on an annual basis, and we invite you to visit Moscow next year to discuss the development of our relations and the building of a multipolar and just world order," the senior Russian lawmaker said.
The interparliamentary summit was an attempt to replicate a similar format for Russia’s interaction with African nations, St. Petersburg State University Professor Viktor Heifets told Vedomosti. As with Africa, Moscow would like the format to take on the character of regular, annual gatherings, as was announced, Heifets noted. The key guests for Russia were Brazil, as one of its BRICS partners, as well as Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, he said. "These are the Latin American nations that are most ready for active cooperation," he added.
Also, Russia is set to establish a visa-free regime with all of the countries of Latin America and launch direct air service with the region, Alexander Shchetinin, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Latin American Department, said on the sidelines of the conference. The idea has been discussed previously and has found support in the State Duma, he said.
"Direct flights to and from Latin America would benefit the country’s economy," Vladimir Tsyganov, head of the Moscow branch of the Institute of Transport Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Such a development would be especially beneficial for the tourism sector, he added. According to the expert, the export potential of the initiative is equally as lucrative. "Russia could launch shipments of a large amount of goods to Latin America. First, we could export our traditional commodities that the country is so rich in. These include energy, oil, liquified gas and food. Also, Russian and Latin American countries can exchange mineral fertilizers, as well as ferrous and non-ferrous metals," Tsyganov believes.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Washington concedes reduced effectiveness of Russian oil price cap
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that the price cap on Russian oil was no longer working as hoped and said that Washington is more than prepared to take action but without specifying any new measures. Russia lost heavily when the restriction was imposed, but the effectiveness of the mechanism has since dropped as Russia has added to its shadow fleet and provided more insurance, Bloomberg quoted her as saying.
The Group of Seven, the European Union and Australia imposed an oil price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil exports in December. Since early this summer, however, numerous price reporting agencies, consultancies and media outlets have reported that Russian crude has been selling above the $60 per barrel limit. But, the initiators of the restrictions preferred to ignore this news and look the other way for a very simple reason: Nobody wanted to bar Russian oil completely from the global market as it would have caused a deficit and pushed prices higher. The idea behind the price cap was merely to deny Russia a certain portion of revenues from oil sales.
Valery Andrianov, expert at the Infotek think tank, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that, in effect, neither the United States nor Europe can exercise any real leverage over Russia by tweaking the parameters of their oil price ceiling. And the recent remark by the US Treasury chief shows that Washington is becoming increasingly nervous over growing oil prices ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The United States can no longer influence the situation by increasing its own domestic shale oil production. While the previous Republican administration had managed to reconcile things with US oil and gas majors, the incumbent Democratic administration has thus far failed to do so, the expert noted.
Meanwhile, the Saudis have completely circumvented US influence in the global energy sector as Riyadh continues to pursue an independent energy policy jointly with Moscow, Andrianov added. Today, the two capitals are actually helping to maintain the supply and demand balance in the global oil market as they have a direct influence on prices. "Any manipulations with the oil price ceiling would not in any way affect Russian oil exports, as we already have every opportunity to ship our oil to any market," he said. According to Andrianov, the oil price cap harms Western businesses, but has not had any tangible effect or exerted any pressure on Russia, and any upgrade of the mechanism would be pointless, he argues.
Izvestia: Will recent terror attack in Turkey hamper Stockholm’s troubled NATO entry bid?
The recent terrorist act in Turkey and Ankara’s response measures against Iraq-based Kurdish forces risk delaying Sweden’s NATO membership bid. Much will depend on how Stockholm and the West in general react, experts told Izvestia. They say that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may use the October 1 attack for bargaining with the United States. Meanwhile, the Turkish air force delivered an air strike on 20 targets in Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Monday night.
The timing and venue of the attack - the explosion occurred near a government building just as a parliamentary session was convening - had not been chosen by chance, Turkey expert Ali Asmar told Izvestia. According to him, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has openly opposed Sweden’s rapprochement with Turkey, which continues to block the Nordic country’s accession to NATO. "How the incident may affect relations between Sweden and Turkey will depend on how Sweden and the West in general react," the expert said. "Many Western countries have condemned the terrorist attack. But words of condemnation are not enough for Turkey; on the contrary, it is seeking to fight terrorism in deed, not just in words," he maintained.
Ankara may keep putting down roadblocks to Sweden’s ambitions to join the North Atlantic Alliance, demonstrating to the bloc as a whole that sympathizing with the Kurds is a destructive path as it threatens the security of Turkey as well as the alliance overall, Grigory Lukyanov, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia. The attack could push the negotiations over Sweden’s NATO accession back, and Turkey may use this pause primarily to defend its economic interests, he argues.
"The terror attack will enable Ankara to bargain with the United States and Europe," Lukyanov believes. Ankara may demand that the West support the Turkish economy, which is facing a difficult situation. In addition, it may insist that Washington revive the joint production of the US F-35 fighter, he concluded.
Vedomosti: Baku spells out plan for reintegrating ethnic Armenian residents of Karabakh
On October 2, Khankendi (Stepanakert) hosted a meeting of the Azerbaijani government’s working group for the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh. Following talks, the administration of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev publicly disclosed the fundamentals of its plan for reintegrating the former unrecognized republic’s Armenian population into Baku’s jurisdiction. This came a day after the exodus of local ethnic Armenians from Karabakh to Armenia came to a de facto end, at least according to Armenian claims, as Yerevan said it had registered a total of 100,514 refugees.
Under the plan, the reintegration of Armenians will be implemented by the Azerbaijani leader’s special representatives in the region, which will accommodate the other Armenian residents of Karabakh, apart from local ethnic Azeris. Baku has announced plans to recruit the region’s ethnic Armenians to work at local municipal government bodies and Interior Ministry agencies.
The process of returning Azeris to the region is in compliance with a schedule that has been outlined by the government, Rafik Ismailov, a member of the Russian-Azerbaijani Council of Exerts, told Vedomosti. According to him, Azeris have been gradually returning as restoration efforts in Karabakh include intensive work to demine and rebuild large areas from scratch. Despite the fact that many local ethnic Armenians have fled the region, many will eventually return to Karabakh as the exodus itself was wholly the result of "artificial turmoil," he argues.
"The very announcement of the [reintegration] plan shows that Azerbaijan did not prevent anyone from leaving, as actually those who wanted to leave, or the overwhelming majority, have departed," Armenian political scientist Johnny Melikian told Vedomosti.
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