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Ukraine’s national debt continues to grow: could the country actually default?

The national debt of Ukraine has surged almost twofold since 2021 and stood at 94% of GDP as of the end of May 2024, or a whopping $143 bln. Internal debt accounts for $40.4 bln of this figure while the country’s external debt – liabilities to other countries, international organizations, and private investors – stands at over $102 bln. The European Union is Kiev’s biggest creditor, with Ukraine owing it $37.88 bln. Among foreign countries, Canada has loaned out the most money – over $5 bln.
Ukraine’s national debt is growing exponentially: over the last twenty years, it has seen some dramatic spikes. The largest ones occurred during the so-called Orange Revolution of 2004, the coup of 2014, and the start of Russia’s special military operation in 2022.

On January 1, 2016, Ukraine went into a sovereign default, having failed to make payment on a $3 bln Russian loan extended in December 2013. Ukraine’s chances of not honoring its payment obligations are rather high again today. The probability of Ukraine announcing a default remains high and will grow to 80% by 2026, Deputy Director of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Andrey Nastasyin said in early July.

See more details about Ukraine’s growing national debt in the TASS infographic.