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Biden-Putin meeting in June to take place, but breakthrough unlikely — analyst

The expert believes that in the current context of bilateral relations the adoption of some "general political declaration of the intention to stabilize relations," alongside some specific agreements between the agencies concerned might be the most significant outcome of the forthcoming summit at best

MOSCOW, May 5. /TASS/. Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden may have a meeting in June during the US president’s tour of Europe, only if no new crisis in relations hits the headlines, although at the current level of bilateral relations the chances of a breakthrough, let alone substantive agreements look bleak, the General Director of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrei Kortunov, told TASS on Wednesday.

"Provided there is no big crisis in relations, or a major surge in tensions on the border with Ukraine, or any other very serious unfriendly steps by the United States against Russia, the meeting will take place, because both sides are interested in it and have already said they are getting ready," Kortunov said. "But I see no reason to expect that some landmark deals will be clinched, of course. Time is tight. Moreover, the current condition of relations does not raise hopes for a breakthrough."

The analyst believes that in the current context of bilateral relations the adoption of some "general political declaration of the intention to stabilize relations," alongside some specific agreements between the agencies concerned might be the most significant outcome of the forthcoming summit at best. There is no reason to hope for more. "If such a meeting does materialize, it will be useful, of course, for it will help identify the areas where we may cooperate and where we are unable to cooperate at all. Possibly, it will map a program for joint work for several months to come. If this happens, it will be a big success. Hoping for a miracle is futile," Kortunov explained.

Range of issues on the agenda

The analyst sees a rather wide range of issues Putin and Biden may touch upon. Among the most likely topics on the agenda, he mentioned "restoration of those channels of cooperation which were the hardest-hit in recent years."

The two leaders may discuss coordination in the diplomatic sphere "to put ‘paid’ to the current diplomatic war and to restore - at least partially - the Russian and US diplomatic missions."

"Ideally, they might thoroughly review bilateral relations, above all, security issues and arms control after the New START expires and, possibly, strategic stability, as well as the critical situations, where Russia and the US must pool efforts," Kortunov said.

He is certain that Biden will bring up a standard set of cliches that would let help him ward off suspicion in Washington that in his contacts with the Russian leader he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Donald Trump.

"Whatever the case, he is bound to mention Ukraine and express the US stance regarding this conflict, Russia’s alleged interference in US politics, and, possibly, human rights, the future of blogger Alexey Navalny being high on the list," Kortunov forecasts. Russia, for its part, may retaliate with some topics "uncomfortable for the US president," but at the same time confine itself to describing its conflicting viewpoints as a fact of life. No concrete agreements will follow due to fundamental discrepancies with the US stance.

New areas for dialogue

As the current context of US-Russian interaction evolves, the analyst does not rule out that the forthcoming summit "may identify some new points of agreement."

"For instance, both sides may display greater interest in discussing Afghanistan in the light of the US troop pullout," Kortunov said. "I do foresee the possibility the coming month may witness certain events - most probably not in the field of bilateral relations - that will require some reaction from both leaders or, possibly, joint or parallel moves. Then, of course, the agenda will be adjusted for the latest political realities."

Biden told the media on Tuesday he hoped for a face-to-face meeting with Putin during his working visit to Europe in June for NATO and G7 summits. The G7 leaders will confer in Britain on June 11-13. NATO’s top brass will gather in Brussels on June 14.