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Experts predict gas supplies could start flowing through Nord Stream 2 in October

They point out that if gas supplies over the Nord Stream 2 start from the new gas year, throughput volumes can be higher

MOSCOW, August 19. /TASS/. Natural gas deliveries to Europe through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline might kick off as early as in October 2021 and the throughput volumes will depend on the start-up conditions of both lines and the gas market situation, experts questioned by TASS say.

Gazprom said earlier that 5.6 bln cubic meters of natural gas can be supplied over Nord Stream 2 in this year.

"Assuming the pipeline will reach 70% of its design capacity in December and its gas filling volume will be gradual, Gazprom probably anticipates full-fledged supplies can start approximately in October," Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch forecasts.

If gas supplies over Nord Stream 2 start from the new gas year [October 1 — TASS], throughput volumes could be higher, Deputy Head of the Energy Security Fund Alexei Grivach predicted.

"If we are talking about commissioning the string completely built in June first and assume it will operate in full swing by the end of the year, then this means supplies will start in late October, when the heating season normally kicks off. If deliveries start from the beginning of the new gas year, volumes could be higher. Certainly, this will also depend on conditions for the start and the market situation," the expert says.

"It cannot be excluded that Europe will need to launch both strings [of the Nord Stream 2] by the end of the year," he adds.

Natural gas prices in Europe are now about $490 per 1,000 cubic meters. Gas prices have already lost more than 10% over the past 24 hours due to news regarding possible gas supplies over Nord Stream 2 this year.

"Even $490 is a very high price. Volatility on the market will remain high and either a price hike or a correction is possible until the launch of Nord Stream 2 and until it will be clear what extra volumes Gazprom will be ready to deliver to Europe," Marinchenko says.

High gas prices in Europe are largely caused by the ‘abnormal’ situation related to the gas pipeline commissioning, Grivach adds.

"It seems to me this is an excellent depiction for a plain thought — abnormally high market prices are caused to a significant extent by the anomalous situation around the start of the almost completely built gas pipeline. It shows the market already needs Nord Stream 2’s capacities and political flip-flopping by its adversaries push prices up to historical records," the expert says.