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Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Large-scale war on Korean Peninsula improbable, but escalation will continue — expert

"Pyongyang understands that it would be about confrontation with the United States. Seoul doesn’t want [a war] either because Pyongyang’s hypersonic missiles would fly into Seoul within five minutes," Konstantin Asmolov said

MOSCOW, October 15. /TASS/. The probability of a large-scale war between the two Koreas is relatively low but that doesn’t mean that more escalation isn’t coming, a Russian expert told TASS.

"It is more probable that there will be no war. <…> Because neither official Pyongyang nor official Seoul want a war," said Konstantin Asmolov of the Korean Studies Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia.

"Pyongyang understands that it would be about confrontation with the United States. Seoul doesn’t want [a war] either because Pyongyang’s hypersonic missiles would fly into Seoul within five minutes," he said.

"And a third force is at play here, South Korean Protestant sectarians, seeking to pit them (South and North Korea - TASS) against each other, which could theoretically work, especially if their provocative activities are not stopped," Asmolov said. "And the South Korean leadership would hate to admit that they are unable to control their own military. Otherwise, they will have to claim responsibility. So, some sort of development on this track is quite possible in the near future."

According to the expert, there is talk about "a holy war on communism" among South Korean Protestant sectarians and they are ready to light this fire. "I am not inclined to see the American trace where it is most probably absent. But many South Korean Protestant sectarians are financed from America and have their offices there. However, to what extent the American government is involved remains a question," he added.

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Foreign policy Situation on the Korean Peninsula

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