MOSCOW, August 2. /TASS/. Washington's actual involvement in the Ukrainian crisis through large-scale arms deliveries to Kiev narrows the opportunities for a strategic stability dialogue with Moscow, but does not cancel it altogether, the head of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrey Kortunov, told TASS in an interview. On the contrary, such a dialogue is becoming more urgent in the light of the growing threat of an unintentional escalation of tensions to the nuclear level, he said.
About US President Joe Biden’s statement Washington was ready to discuss with Moscow a new system of arms control that would replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), effective till 2026, Kortunov said that since the Cold War era there had been a sensible tradition in relations with Washington "to distinguish between strategic arms control and all other aspects."
In the current acute phase of the Ukrainian crisis, the prospects for such a dialogue, Kortunov believes, are noticeably more difficult to estimate, but its need, in a certain sense, "becomes even more urgent."
"This is so because one of the risks that we are confronted with is the possibility of an unintentional escalation [of this crisis] to the nuclear level. Particularly so, if this conflict evolves into a more general clash between Russia and NATO," Kortunov explained. "Preserving contacts, restoring lines of communication and discussing nuclear issues are, among other things, the tools to ease the risks of a vertical escalation of the Ukrainian crisis."
Kortunov pointed to a number of factors in the development of the Ukrainian crisis, "which make the restoration of a strategic stability dialogue a rather daunting task."
"The lack of trust between the parties, the United States’ actual involvement in the conflict and large-scale arms supplies to Ukraine - all this by no means facilitates the dialogue, but on the contrary complicates it, but this does not mean that dialogue should not be conducted," Kortunov continued. "Since the extension [of the New START] eighteen months have already passed and there will be no second extension. At least, there can be none under the terms of the treaty. There is very little time left to somehow maintain strategic arms control and agree on a new format for this control."
Tertium non datur
Kortunov also drew attention to the fact that in the context of the prospects for resuming the strategic stability dialogue between Russia and the United States the question of involving a third party, China, in this negotiation process is raised ever more often. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said on Tuesday that Beijing might join the discussion on a new strategic arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia, but Washington should be the first to set a convincing example regarding arms control.
"I believe it is more likely that there will be two parallel bilateral tracks, at least, in the near future: one for the US and Russia and the other for the US and China," the expert said. But the latest events involving US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Asia call into question the possibility of any serious dialogue at all on the US-China track. It remains to be seen how this crisis will end. In the long term, having China involved in discussing strategic arms control will be not only desirable, but even necessary."
On Monday, the White House released a statement by US President Joe Biden timed for the opening of the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference in New York. It says that the United States is ready to discuss with Russia a new arms control system that will replace the New START. Washington expressed the hope that Moscow would demonstrate its willingness to work together, adding that consultations on such an issue should take place with China taking part.