MOSCOW, March 24. /TASS/. Having year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is not just about vessel capacity, it is also about accuracy of the route and weather forecasts. Specialists of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) are studying ice and climatic conditions to ensure the safest navigation in the Arctic seas observing the ecological balance in the region. The institute's Director Alexander Makarov told TASS about what scientists can do to extend the navigation term.
– It was back in the last century that the Arctic Institute laid the foundations for a system of scientific and operational hydrometeorology services for navigation along the Northern Sea Route. What is being done to improve this system, and what tasks do you face? How can you describe the ice situation in the Arctic seas?
– Our current task is to provide year-round navigation, since at the moment year-round navigation along the entire route is not possible yet.
– What time is currently unavailable for navigation?
– The navigation ends at the year end and the Northern Sea Route closes even earlier, but there still remain certain cases of escort: we are having experimental escort missions. The latest were in February, and the earliest were in May. That is, we are slowly approaching from both ends, it is important for us to have year-round navigation, and most importantly – towards the East.
– Is that due to ice conditions?
– To a big extend, yes. The Arctic seas differ in their ice conditions. The western sector, like the Barents and Kara Seas, is practically available for year-round navigation. There may be areas with heavier ice, but given the class of existing vessels, the icebreakers, they more or less are available all year round in the multi-lane mode. As for eastern seas, the situation is different as the ice regime is much more severe there.
Right, areas of ice and thickness lows were in 2007, 2012, 2018, and in 2019. Over recent three or four years the situation has stabilized. In the eastern seas – the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea – there are quite severe ice conditions. There still remains also the ancient ice – old ice that can survive the summer, and its thickness is more than one meter. Hydrometeorology specialists at Cape Chelyuskin have measured the ice – it is almost 1.5 meters, and such ice has not been there for 20 years.
And also, the Laptev, the East Siberian, and the Chukchi Seas are having more severe ice conditions in recent years. Thank God, there have been no incidents there. We've recently discussed this with experts of Rosatom – we have trouble-free navigation. We say: this is due to our forecasts.
– In other words, the analysis of the situation and forecasts does have an impact?
– Of course, this is a multifactorial story. This includes icebreaking support, information support, forecasts, and the experience of captains is of great importance. Such a conglomerate it is.
– Does it happen so that the escort fails because of an inaccurate forecast?
– It does if you don't take the forecast. There are never wrong forecasts – we may slightly confuse the time and place. It's a joke.
In fact, the forecast accuracy is very high – more than 90% on ice for navigation purposes. We may have situations where there are certain errors.
– What can scientists do to make sailing along the Northern Sea Route even faster and safer, to improve logistics?
– We are developing the forecast system. We are using the "North" system that is designed to make forecasts along the route and to deliver this information, to distribute it among shipowners and captains, so that the captain on the bridge had all the information to make a decision on the route.
We have an important organizational activity. We have been in contact with Glavmorput (the Northern Sea Route's administration) and the Naval Operations Headquarters 24/7, and, in case of complicated escorts, a scientific and operational group, our scientists would guide these escorts.
Plus, there is experience where our specialists are on board the ships and communicate with the captain, navigators, conducting the escort. It is a complex task: on one hand, it is the escort, on the other hand – it is training.
– What is more important here – the material and technical base, the equipment quality or the accuracy of calculations?
– We would like the observation system to develop and improve, and right now the Russian Hydrometeorology Service is upgrading the network of hard-to-reach stations in the Arctic. The Institute supervises it, offering methodology coordination. There, it is about new equipment, upgrades, and great attention is to the marine surveillance network. We would like all this to develop, and of course, we need to use remote methods of obtaining information, satellites, and so on. But indeed, many things may be done conditionally with own hands – due to better coordination, due to better work with Rosatom, with the Naval Operations Headquarters, due to prompt and more accurate moderation and the development of information technologies in the broadest sense, that is, we have been using artificial intelligence and neural networks.
We have a separate initiative project with the Institute of Computational Mathematics. They are also engaged in moderation, but this is more scientific, exploratory work, where they improve theoretical models, and we then look at how to apply them best. It is comprehensive work. I would say that the main aspect in improving the quality, accuracy, and correctness of forecasts is in training experts. They are young people who should, if they want, work actively. Whatever devices, measuring instruments, models, programs, it is our expert who makes the final decision on conditions and possible navigation recommendations. Our experts are the guarantee of improving the forecast quality. Everything here depends on people.
– Can you see now any interest from young specialists?
– Yes, although we say we wish they were more, better, but, anyway, we do see. Guys and girls do come.
– What about the environmental monitoring in the Northern Sea Route waters? Is AARI involved in its improvement? We know, for example, that spring navigation has a significant impact on marine mammals. How critical is this impact now?
– Right. The growing navigation along the Northern Sea Route is not only about a bigger number of vessels and voyages, it is also about a change in the quality of these vessels: we have giant vessels, new nuclear-powered ships, and gas carriers. In fact, the ecosystem, the natural environment has not experienced such active pressure. Presently, we already transport 38 million tons of cargo on large ships. The impact is strong. Of course, we need to pay great attention to maintenance of the logistics route, to the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. From NSR we are moving towards the Great NSR and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor.
The environmental component is important, and we see it as an anchor factor for ensuring the safety of navigation in the broadest sense.
We have quite serious requirements for ships, for the navigation safety, but the Arctic ecosystems are so sensitive to any impacts in case of an incident, it will be most complicated to fix them. In the Arctic, these are complex technologies, difficult organizational measures.
How the institute participates in this work. In fact, the institute is currently reassembling this system: it doesn't work, it doesn't exist as such. It has been invented here, at the Arctic Institute, with involvement of other experts and organizations. This system is being formed. The Institute has been working on it, and currently we are finalizing this monitoring program for the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, and I really hope that our leaders and the government will support us in using this program, in launching it and implementing it. If decision is in place, we can do this, and we will do it.
– What does this program contain? Any rules or recommendations?
– It covers an adjustment of observation programs at stationary points, in particular, at the infrastructure of the Russian Hydrometeorology Service, because it is quite wide. We have a lot of experience here, because we have followed a similar path when creating a permafrost monitoring system. We have been using the Russian Hydrometeorology Service infrastructure, and this greatly cuts the entire system's cost. Another aspect is working with port infrastructures, coastal port infrastructures monitoring – everything is quite straightforward there. The third aspect is ship observations, which need to be coordinated and brought to a single format, because right now these works are fragmented, unstable, and non-targeted. Most importantly, we need to collect and consolidate all this information in compliance with the principle of unity of measurement tools and methods and to put it into existing information systems – a single platform for Rosatom's digital services, GIS (state information system), monitoring, the Ministry of Transport's information systems, which already exist. In our opinion, this information should be uploaded there, so that decision-makers, supervising this situation, could have the most up-to-date information.
We eye it from our own point of view, more scientific. That will be analytics, reports, and prepared information. That is, our block is working with prepared information, which is very important. That is, it is not enough to simply set up tools, update programs, observation tools, and train people. This information needs to be collected, stored, organized, processed, and offered conveniently to those who need it.
I can give you an example. Let's say we're talking about the weather, and you say: give me the weather on the Northern Sea Route. If I want to, I can understand how you need it, and if not, I'll start wondering what kind of forecast you need – long-term or short-term. And here the route is to have this information not just accessible, but convenient, conveniently accessible, and intuitively accessible – to make sure it is useful and used.
– Does the developing environmental monitoring take into account the marine mammals' interests?
– Of course, we are analyzing how the intensifying shipping affects the distribution of big marine mammals, and more. This applies to bears, to how bird rookeries develop, how bird migration is changing.
This is an integrated approach, where everything is linked to plankton and microorganisms, bacteria, viruses, the distribution of chemicals, and the distribution of aerosols. These studies' explication is very detailed. I believe this program will be ready by the summer. Perhaps we may present it on the Day of Polar Explorers (in 2026 it will be on May 21).
– What are AARI's plans for this year? What are your most important goals?
– We continue to work in the Arctic and the Antarctica. Wintering has begun in the Antarctica, and flights have been closed recently. In the East, the wintering has started already. We plan to continue work to support and, I hope, develop the permafrost soils monitoring system. We are finalizing work to create an environmental monitoring program in the Arctic along the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. We will defend and promote it. It's similar to the Antarctic science, in the East, the project is ready. We have slightly reassembled and promoted it. Plus, more long-term ideas. We would like to develop the infrastructure of stations in the Antarctica. They're outdated. Recently, we have celebrated the 70th anniversary of the Mirny station. They even have found some building from the first wintering there. We have a lot to work on. We now have been working proactively on how stations in the Antarctica will look like. And of course, the construction of our vessel – the Ivan Frolov – is underway. The drift of the SP-42 (South Pole) station will end this season, we will think about how and where to deploy SP-43. In a positive sense, the personnel change is high, and we apply every effort to work with young people – attracting young people, employing them, and sending on expeditions. Here, we will only build up our activities.
– Do you expect anything in international relations?
– We are working with the BRICS countries, BRICS Plus. There are some actions there. We have just made four joint international projects in the Antarctica. I hope we will also have joint work in the Arctic. We are spending a lot of time, money and resources for this, but at times I wish we could move faster.
Interviewed by Ekaterina Andreeva