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Collapse of old strategic stability system didn't lead to creation of new one, experts say

Currently, there is "a serious dilemma of preserving the strategic stability, its parameters are changing in absence of an arms control regime"

MOSCOW, August 1. /TASS/. The system of global strategic security that used to exist in the world has now crumbled, while a new system to replace it still has not been created, leading Russian experts said on Thursday at a roundtable discussion of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) collapse.

"Today, it is clear that one system has fallen apart, while a different one has not been established," Head of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ European Security Department Dmitry Danilov believes.

"We are now all facing a serious dilemma of preserving the strategic stability, its parameters are changing in absence of an arms control regime," he continued. "What is strategic stability, when the treaty system is crumbling, when any new agreement can be destroyed or challenged by a new administration, a new configuration? This is very worrisome."

At the same time, Danilov is convinced that talks should be held to establish a new system of global strategic security. "It is clear that we need to sit down at the negotiating table to agree on something relating to strategic stability, but it is not simply military and technical issues, this is primarily a political matter. Therefore, any consultations, any negotiations will gain positive traction, limit the negative effect of developments," the expert is certain.

Will New START follow INF Treaty suit?

Head of Moscow State University’s Department of International Organizations and Global Political Processes Andrey Sidorov emphasized that the US side is consistently violating the treaty basis of the arms control system, while simultaneously making signals to Russia that it is willing to hold dialogue to create a new security system. "Certain signals are coming out of Washington now, outlining readiness to launch a new negotiating process to create a new system, although it is unclear what this system can be like, who will hold talks, who will be responsible for making any decisions," he said. "However, before it comes down to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the US will have presidential elections. That is why US President Donald Trump is postponing these issues for later, after the 2020 November elections. If his first term in the office turned out destructive, then his second one can well be constructive. What remains unknown is what team he might assemble to promote and address the issues relating to security system, which is being destroyed by the Republicans now."

In turn, Danilov elaborated on whether preserving the New START is in line with the reality that has emerged now. "The political situation now is completely different to the one that dominated the world back when the treaty was signed," the expert underlined. "Now the treaty is not needed, because there can always be found ways around it and mutual allegations in the environment of confrontational type of relations. Of course, it is politically important to preserve the pillars of arms control, but it cannot be saved anymore, everything has been destroyed, the system has collapsed and we should keep that in mind."

"It is utterly pointless to talk about a new philosophy of arms control," he concluded.

INF Treaty collapse creates issues for Europe

Moreover, Danilov pointed out that after the US had announced its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the Europeans realized they were no longer capable of influencing the strategic stability situation as well as the US position. "They are facing unpredictability, the US allies do not understand how the US military programs and strategic thinking will develop in the future," the expert believes. "In this environment, Europeans do not understand what the strategic stability based on Russia-US balance is. Europe is extremely concerned that the attempts to build up its own European defense and autonomy will turn out pointless and that it will not have any serious opportunities to influence the strategic situation on the European theater, when creating their own potential.".