MOSCOW, December 12. /TASS/. Russia may continue gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine in a reduced volume (4-7 bln cubic meters) and without a transit contract, which expires at the end of this year, if the rights to the fuel are transferred at the Russian-Ukrainian border. At the same time, Gazprom has the opportunity to increase pumping in the direction of the EU via Turkey, as well as direct flows to Central Asia, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman told TASS.
"So far, there is no guarantee that supplies will not continue even without a contract. Taking into account the interests of European consumers, we do not rule out that about 4-7 bln cubic meters of the current 15 bln will continue to be supplied to Europe under a mechanism that provides for the transfer of ownership of gas at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Using the example of the southern branch of Druzhba, we can conclude that, in principle, the Ukrainian side is not against the transit of Russian hydrocarbons, as long as it brings profit. However, it is difficult to make precise predictions because this is a highly politicized issue," he said.
If the transit through Ukraine is completely stopped, Gazprom's pipeline exports in 2025 may decrease by only 5-7 bln cubic meters, the expert noted. The company has a number of alternative supply routes. For example, the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines are designed in such a way that their capacity can be increased by a total of 6-7 bln cubic meters in a relatively short period of time (1-2 years), which would allow more gas to be supplied to Europe via this route.
In addition, there is still potential for growth in pumping to Central Asia. According to Kaufman, supplies to the region could reach 12 bcm per year by 2026. In addition, joint projects with Iran are being discussed, including possible gas supplies to the north of the country.
In the long term, Gazprom plans to increase exports to China to 48 bln cubic meters by 2028-2029 (after the Power of Siberia and the Far Eastern route reach full capacity), as well as an additional project in the form of either Power of Siberia 2 (50 bln cubic meters) or transit through Kazakhstan (35 bln cubic meters). However, the last two options could be implemented in 2031-2033 at the earliest, the expert noted. Gazprom also continues to implement the Baltic LNG project in Ust-Luga with a capacity of 13 mln tons of LNG per year. The construction of the plant has been delayed due to the withdrawal of Western partners, but its commissioning is possible in 2027-2028.
The agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory expires at the end of 2024 and provides for the pumping of 40 bln cubic meters per year. The transit line through Ukraine remains the only route for Russian gas supplies to Western and Central European countries. Gas supplies via TurkStream and Blue Stream are intended for Turkey and the countries of southern and southeastern Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Kiev is not going to extend the transit of Russian gas to Europe until 2025. He recalled that Ukraine has joined European laws and should have booked capacities for pumping in advance, but this deadline was missed.